Trump takes lead in 3 of last 4 National Polls!

[Mesaclone]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

Gravis
LA Times
Rasmussen

This includes some RV polls, when looking exclusively at Likely Voter polls he's doing even better. Only 2 of the 4 are inclusive of the RNC dates so most of this is not convention bounce, but simply a shift in voter sentiment. Not a huge shift, but a significant one. Polls at this point are good indicator of shifting sentiment but must be taken with a large grain of salt when looking at the overall horserace. Polls won't be truly predictive until at least September. Nonetheless, very good news for our nominee Mr. Trump.

[Wingnut]

Trump has the best polls. Good Polls.  The best Polls. 

Ride the GOP Trump circus train

[cato potatoe]

With all the division within the Democratic party, combined with Hillary's status as 2nd most unpopular candidate of all time ... you would have to expect Rubio or Kasich to be a heavy favorite at this point.  Cruz likely would hold a lead as well.  The Supreme Court could have been saved and we would have seen an unprecedented, well-financed turnout drive to hold the senate as well.

Instead, you can probably subtract 3-5 points from Trump's lousy polling due to his negligence, and you can forget about the close congressional races.  Thanks a lot, trumpsters! 

[ScottinVA]

That one-point lead in the Ras is hardly a bounce.  Trump's lead PRIOR to the RNC was 7.

[ScottinVA]

With all the division within the Democratic party, combined with Hillary's status as 2nd most unpopular candidate of all time ... you would have to expect Rubio or Kasich to be a heavy favorite at this point.  Cruz likely would hold a lead as well.  The Supreme Court could have been saved and we would have seen an unprecedented, well-financed turnout drive to hold the senate as well.

Instead, you can probably subtract 3-5 points from Trump's lousy polling due to his negligence, and you can forget about the close congressional races.  Thanks a lot, trumpsters!

Rubio would be destroying the hag by very large numbers.  But... damaging the GOP is more important to Trumpettes than actually winning the election.

[Mesaclone]

Trump has the best polls. Good Polls.  The best Polls. 

Ride the GOP Trump circus train

Is that a family photo?

[Mesaclone]

Rubio would be destroying the hag by very large numbers.  But... damaging the GOP is more important to Trumpettes than actually winning the election.

I was a Rubio guy, and you are dead wrong. Once the Clinton machine went to work on him about his credit card problems, government expense spending and other issues...he'd be getting waxed. She's spent millions upon millions against Trump who has hardly responded...doing the old rope-a-dope...and she's not even tied with the man. If Marco couldn't be Trump in a GOP primary, how the heck would he beat Clinton...you've been fooled by pre-primary polling showing horse race numbers that are meaningless at that stage in the race.

[Mesaclone]

That one-point lead in the Ras is hardly a bounce.  Trump's lead PRIOR to the RNC was 7.

The Rasmussen is not post convention...concluded on Monday and Tuesday...so your point is simply wrong.

[sinkspur]

Trump is behind Romney with men, huge gender gap with women, and Hispanic support is at 14%.

Trump is going to get crushed.

[Mesaclone]

One would hope so.  He should get a good Convention bounce.  If he didn't, it would be extremely embarrassing.

Ack.  I should have actually looked at the polls prior to posting.  Not much of a Convention bounce there.  I honestly thought it would be more as he was purported to have had a successful convention.

Most of these polls are pre-convention, so this doesn't really apply to that. As for bounces, you're going to have smaller bounces then usual with both conventions because both candidates are so well known. If he gets any kind of bounce on top of this pre-convention shift...that would be most impressive.

[Mesaclone]

Trump is behind Romney with men, huge gender gap with women, and Hispanic support is at 14%.

Trump is going to get crushed.

And yet he's winning in these polls...hmmm...something about your math seems to not be working.

[sinkspur]

And yet he's winning in these polls...hmmm...something about your math seems to not be working.

He's within the margin of error.   He's not "winning" anything.

[Mesaclone]

He's within the margin of error.   He's not "winning" anything.

I stand corrected. Within the margin of error is more accurate. That said, a few weeks ago he was a good 5% behind in the RCP totals...and the current tightening doesn't even yet include a convention bounce. Any way you look at it, it's good news for Mr Trump.

[sinkspur]

I stand corrected. Within the margin of error is more accurate. That said, a few weeks ago he was a good 5% behind in the RCP totals...and the current tightening doesn't even yet include a convention bounce. Any way you look at it, it's good news for Mr Trump.

Until Hillary gets her bounce.

When is Trump going to being his campaign against Hillary and stop trashing other Republicans?

[LMAO]

I am pretty sure all the Trump supporters are on record saying the polls are wrong..'

They will be again if Trump slips back behind

[truth_seeker]

It makes me very ill to think of Hillary winning.  But I not only hope Trump loses, I hope he loses big -- so big you won't even believe it -- YUGE!  It's the only way to maybe turn the Republican Party around.

Do you prefer for Hillary to win, over Trump? Yes or no. No political doubletalk.

[truth_seeker]

I am pretty sure all the Trump supporters are on record saying the polls are wrong.

I am on record, saying polls taken together, and trends over time usually tell the story.

So you were wrong on me.

[Mesaclone]

I am on record, saying polls taken together, and trends over time usually tell the story.

So you were wrong on me.

Ditto. I have said trend lines matter but horserace polls mean very little until September. Heck, Dukakis was up 17 over Reagan at convention time. I'm a big fan of using RCP averages and of listening/reading everything Nate Silver puts out.

[ScottinVA]

I was a Rubio guy, and you are dead wrong. Once the Clinton machine went to work on him about his credit card problems, government expense spending and other issues...he'd be getting waxed. She's spent millions upon millions against Trump who has hardly responded...doing the old rope-a-dope...and she's not even tied with the man. If Marco couldn't be Trump in a GOP primary, how the heck would he beat Clinton...you've been fooled by pre-primary polling showing horse race numbers that are meaningless at that stage in the race.

I've been "fooled" by nothing.  Who's being fooled are those who actually think Trump, with his astronomical unfavorables, has a snowball's chance in hell come November.  He can't even focus for more than a nanosecond on defeating his friend Hillary.

Loud-mouthed, vapid populism only goes so far.  While voters do indeed have a major distaste for Hillary, many will cast a vote for her because she's the "devil they know."  Just as Trump supporters massage their minds with rationalizations every time Trump jams his foot in his mouth, the majority of Americans will convince themselves that Hillary is less insane than Trump.

The issue about Rubio's finances would've been minuscule, compared to the onslaught that's coming against Trump.  Trump may think he's playing rope-a-dope and absorbing the dems' punishment, but all he's taking are light jabs.  The power punches will come later.

[ScottinVA]

The Rasmussen is not post convention...concluded on Monday and Tuesday...so your point is simply wrong.

Look at the three surveys you mentioned as showing Trump got a post-RNC bounce.  Rasmussen is one of them.  Tell us what Rasmussen poll shows that bounce.   

But in fairness, I'll concede he got a bump here:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll/index.html

[Mesaclone]

I've been "fooled" by nothing.  Who's being fooled are those who actually think Trump, with his astronomical unfavorables, has a snowball's chance in hell come November.  He can't even focus for more than a nanosecond on defeating his friend Hillary.

Loud-mouthed, vapid populism only goes so far.  While voters do indeed have a major distaste for Hillary, many will cast a vote for her because she's the "devil they know."  Just as Trump supporters massage their minds with rationalizations every time Trump jams his foot in his mouth, the majority of Americans will convince themselves that Hillary is less insane than Trump.

The issue about Rubio's finances would've been minuscule, compared to the onslaught that's coming against Trump.  Trump may think he's playing rope-a-dope and absorbing the dems' punishment, but all he's taking are light jabs.  The power punches will come later.

You mean, fools like Nate Silver who now has Trump with a 54% chance of winning? Its not like he was spot on with his call of the last election...right? Not to mention, he's now moved into the lead...so while its going to be very close, those foolish enough to say he hasn't a snowballs chance are really employing wishful thinking.