Donald Trump’s Polling Lead In New York Is As Meaningless As His Lead In Pennsylvania

[Frank Cannon]

http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/04/06/trumps-polling-lead-new-york-meaningless-lead-pennsylvania/

After the repudiation Donald Trump suffered at the hands of Wisconsin voters yesterday, Trump supporters are screaming about voter fraud (in a Wisconsin GOP primary? Really? Are you on drugs?) and chortling about regaining momentum in the upcoming primary contests in Pennsylvania and New York. This is just another exercise in self delusion. As I pointed out yesterday, 54 of Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates are not bound to any candidate at any time. They are complete free agents. It would be possible for Trump to win a clear majority of the vote in Pennsylvania and only get 17 delegates.  This is not merely theoretical. Given the abject incompetence of the Trump campaign the overwhelming odds are that no matter what they win at the ballot box in terms of popular vote will not be converted into voting delegates.

The next big goal for Trump fans is New York and its 95 delegates. This is Donald Trump’s home state and no one who has lost their home state in a primary stays in the race for long. But New York is not the given that Trump fans seem to think it is and it certainly is not the Holy Grail that puts Trump back in the driver’s seat heading toward the nomination.

What is driving the Trumpian confidence, naturally, are the polls. Like the one that had Trump winning Wisconsin by 10 points. I’d like to point out here that Trump does not have a private polling capability. He relies on public polls and, by all evidence, he believes them.

But things are rarely as simple as they seem.

New York is a closed primary state and the deadline for registering or changing parties passed on March 25. The unstoppable Trump Train of late March suddenly looks rather decrepit but those Trump supporters who are either not registered to vote or not registered as Republicans — an issue in a state with roughly a half dozen parties on the ballot — couldn’t know that. And because they didn’t register as Republicans, they will not be a factor at the polling booth.

As we’ve seen, over and over, polls overstate Donald Trump’s actual vote by about 5 points. Even so, the way New York award delegates is based on Congressional district:

    For starters, the state’s 95 delegates will be awarded proportionally, rather than on a winner-take-all basis. Beyond that, 81 of those delegates are distributed on the basis of results in the state’s 27 congressional districts.

    Trump could gain 14 delegates if he wins more than 50 percent of the statewide vote. Otherwise, he will share those delegates with any rival who tops 20 percent. In any congressional district where he falls short of 50 percent, even if he has the plurality of votes, he will give up one of the three delegates awarded in each of those districts. If he runs second in any district, he would pick up just one delegate.

If we assume Trump gets under 50% of the statewide vote, and I would contend that this is the most likely outcome, he gets about 7 of the 14 statewide delegates. Assuming he finishes first or second in each CD (for purposes of illustration I’m assuming he wins half and loses half), but under 50%, he’d pick up about 40 more. Instead of waltzing out with 95 delegates his total will probably be less than 50, or alternatively put, the anti-Trump effort gains 45 delegates. Yes, it would be a win, but in the fight to reach 1237 it will be a death blow.

So as you interact with Trump supporters and you find them ecstatic about the polls in Pennsylvania and New York, keep in mind that the only reason they are happy is because they simply don’t understand the game they think they are playing.

[Frank Cannon]

Trump has gone from 58% March 24th to 51% today. Getting excited that he broke 50% isn't good news if he is on his way down.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-york-presidential-republican-primary

[musiclady]

So as you interact with Trump supporters and you find them ecstatic about the polls in Pennsylvania and New York, keep in mind that the only reason they are happy is because they simply don’t understand the game they think they are playing.

That's nothing new.  Not only do Trump supporters not understand the game, but Trump himself doesn't understand the game.

That's why he's going to lose the nomination.

[Wingnut]

Trump has gone from 58% March 24th to 51% today. Getting excited that he broke 50% isn't good news if he is on his way down.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-york-presidential-republican-primary

He really is the "40%" ceiling man and falling.  The more you know of trump the more shinola that shows thu.

[Frank Cannon]

He really is the "40%" ceiling man and falling.  The more you know of trump the more shinola that shows thu.

I wonder if he is going to do that well in NY. A guy from Real Clear Politics was on Beck this morning and said they have no idea how to figure out reliably how much support Trump has in some Liberal districts because there are so few GOP voters in them. This is a closed Primary state after all and a handful of votes can sway this wildly.

[Wingnut]

They seem to be confident of a Trump victory.  So would it be safe to say the wild card is what the margin will be?

[Frank Cannon]

They seem to be confident of a Trump victory.  So would it be safe to say the wild card is what the margin will be?

People were confident of a Trump win this far out from WI.

[Wingnut]

People were confident of a Trump win this far out from WI.

The TCG members are holding a Trump circle jerk in their echo chamber over his supposed 50% lead over cruz.   Based on that factoid.... I'm sure all hope is lost.

[Frank Cannon]

The TCG members are holding a Trump circle jerk in their echo chamber over his supposed 50% lead over cruz.   Based on that factoid.... I'm sure all hope is lost.

Well considering the MOE in that Monmouth poll is almost 6% and Trump has overpolled about 5% in every contest so far, it is very realistic to believe Trump is well under 50% right now.

[jmyrlefuller]

I wonder if he is going to do that well in NY. A guy from Real Clear Politics was on Beck this morning and said they have no idea how to figure out reliably how much support Trump has in some Liberal districts because there are so few GOP voters in them. This is a closed Primary state after all and a handful of votes can sway this wildly.

In New York, the big Republican areas are Western New York and the Southern Tier, especially since the Carl Paladino campaign in 2010. Paladino has gone all-in for Trump and has apparently managed to swing both Republican congressmen, Chris Collins (once a conservative county executive, now turned moderate/liberal Congressman) and Tom Reed (who has been a solid establishment figure, somewhere between moderate and conservative in his beliefs). Some of the most conservative counties in the region are in these regions, and if Cruz is going to have any chance of picking off delegates, Reed's and Collins's congressional districts might be good opportunities. These regions are strong independent thinkers with a healthy distrust of frontrunners.

Then there's Central New York. The core (Syracuse and Ithaca) is hardcore Democrat, but this region is built on Rockefeller Republicanism: generally more liberal than the national norm and conservative/Tea Party attempts to win the Congressional seat there (held by Richard Hanna last I checked) have failed twice. It's hard to say who they'd support, but it wouldn't be a stretch to think that Kasich gets his biggest support here.

The North Country is similar, maybe not quite as liberal, but quite moderate. Their Congresswoman, Elise Stefanik, has not endorsed, but it's clear she doesn't like Trump.

Moving downstate, the Hudson Valley and northern suburbs of New York will be difficult to judge, and their relatively high population makes this a wild-card. I haven't been able to really gauge anything regarding support.

New York City has very few Republicans; in these races, they're about as relevant as much smaller upstate counties. They're probably Trump strongholds.

All in all, local politics has, by and large dominated discussion around here, which means the primary hasn't received much attention. That also plays into Trump's favor.

As a non-affiliated voter, I, alas, don't get to vote.

[Frank Cannon]

In New York, the big Republican areas are Western New York and the Southern Tier, especially since the Carl Paladino campaign in 2010. Paladino has gone all-in for Trump and has apparently managed to swing both Republican congressmen, Chris Collins (once a conservative county executive, now turned moderate/liberal Congressman) and Tom Reed (who has been a solid establishment figure, somewhere between moderate and conservative in his beliefs). Some of the most conservative counties in the region are in these regions, and if Cruz is going to have any chance of picking off delegates, Reed's and Collins's congressional districts might be good opportunities. These regions are strong independent thinkers with a healthy distrust of frontrunners.

Then there's Central New York. The core (Syracuse and Ithaca) is hardcore Democrat, but this region is built on Rockefeller Republicanism: generally more liberal than the national norm and conservative/Tea Party attempts to win the Congressional seat there (held by Richard Hanna last I checked) have failed twice. It's hard to say who they'd support, but it wouldn't be a stretch to think that Kasich gets his biggest support here.

The North Country is similar, maybe not quite as liberal, but quite moderate. Their Congresswoman, Elise Stefanik, has not endorsed, but it's clear she doesn't like Trump.

Moving downstate, the Hudson Valley and northern suburbs of New York will be difficult to judge, and their relatively high population makes this a wild-card. I haven't been able to really gauge anything regarding support.

New York City has very few Republicans; in these races, they're about as relevant as much smaller upstate counties. They're probably Trump strongholds.

All in all, local politics has, by and large dominated discussion around here, which means the primary hasn't received much attention. That also plays into Trump's favor.

As a non-affiliated voter, I, alas, don't get to vote.

How much weight do you think those congressional endorsements mean now that Collins exposed Paladino as a thug?


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chris-collins-trump-endorsement_us_56f40b30e4b04c4c37617ceb?kijv7mx3fkcma38fr

[jmyrlefuller]

How much weight do you think those congressional endorsements mean now that Collins exposed Paladino as a thug?


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chris-collins-trump-endorsement_us_56f40b30e4b04c4c37617ceb?kijv7mx3fkcma38fr

It's hard to say. As I noted, Collins has been on a bit of a downward slide in popularity since going to Congress. Paladino is still popular enough that he doesn't face any opposition for re-election to the school board seat he's held the past three years, but his increasingly stubborn act seems to be wearing thin.

Like I said, Collins's and Reed's districts are probably Cruz's best chances for delegate pickups because those are the most conservative areas in the state.

[Bill Cipher]

I'm just glad NY isn't a winner-take-all state. 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I'm just glad NY isn't a winner-take-all state.

If anyone gets over 50% it becomes WTA. And under 20% yields no delegates.

[Bill Cipher]

If anyone gets over 50% it becomes WTA. And under 20% yields no delegates.

As I read it, that's not on a state-wide basis.  According to this:  http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-R

there are 14 state-wide delegates that would all go to the candidate who gets more than 50% of the state-wide vote.  If no candidate gets more than 50%, then these delegates are distributed proportionately (according to a complicated algorithm).

The other 81 delegates go congressional district by congressional district.  There are 3 delegates assigned to each district.  If a candidate gets more than 50% in a given district, or is the only candidate to get 20% or more of the vote in that district, then that candidate gets all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, if at least two candidates each get 20% or more, then the one with the highest gets 2 delegates and the next one gets 1 delegate.  If no candidate gets 20% or more, then the delegates are selected by the state party without reference to the primary results.

So in order for a candidate to get 100% of NY's delegates, that candidate would not only have to get more than 50% statewide, that candidate would also have to get more than 50% in each and every congressional district.

Even if STrump has a lead in NY, I very much doubt he has enough of a lead in NY to get all 95 of NY's delegates.  Even if he gets more than 50% statewide and more than 50% in 14 of the congressional districts, and wins by a plurality in the other 13 of the districts, he would only get 14, plus 42, plus 26 = 82 delegates; assuming Cruz managed to get at least 20% in those same 13 districts, he would get 13 delegates.

If we simply assume that Trump gets the largest plurality, but less than 50%, both statewide and in each of the 27 districts, then he would only get about 8 (a little over half the 14 statewides), plus 54 (2 from each district) = 62 delegates.  Presumably, Cruz would get the other 33 delegates.

We all know that there is no way Trump gets more than 50% in each and every congressional district in NY (and thus by implication more than 50% statewide), and therefore we all know that there is no way Trump gets all 95 of NY's delegates.