http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/273191-trump-risks-falling-short-of-delegate-count-for-nomination By Ben Kamisar - 03/16/16 01:25 AM EDT
Donald Trump has secured more than half of the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination, but he’s unlikely to finish with enough delegates to reach that threshold before the convention unless he steps up his pace.
Trump’s a strong performance in the Tuesday night primaries has made his lead hard to overcome. With about 60 percent of the party’s total delegates already awarded, Trump has won about 47 percent.
But if he continues to win at that same clip, he’d fall more than 100 delegates short of the nomination, which would send the Republicans into a contested convention.
For Trump to come into the convention with at least the 1,237 delegate threshold for the nomination, he’ll have to win more about 60 percent of the delegates outstanding – 600.
Trump won at least three of the five states up for grabs on Tuesday—Florida, Illinois and North Carolina, with Missouri too close to call as of early Wednesday morning—which will net him at least 150 delegates.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s victory in his home state and the potential Cruz win in Missouri, have implications for Trump—mainly that it will make it significantly harder for Trump to exceed the delegate threshold needed to stave off a contested convention.
He has secured 621 delegates, according to the Associated Press' projections as of 8:00 a.m. Wednesday,. Ted Cruz has 396 and John Kasich has 138. Marco Rubio, who dropped out Tuesday night, ends his campaign with 167 delegates.
But 101 delegates are still yet to be awarded as results continue to come in, including the winner of the Missouri primary as well as a significant swath of Illinois delegates to be awarded by the results of congressional district.
Trump also won the delegate majority in his eighth state, when the Northern Marianas are counted. That's an important victory because convention rules currently stipulate that only candidates who pass that threshold are eligible for the nomination. While Trump is the only candidate with that under his belt, the threshold can be easily changed by convention delegates before the convention begins.
Now, the question turns to whether Trump can amass the 1,237 delegates needed to avoid a contested convention and win the nomination outright.
With only two winner-take-all states left until the end of April, winning Florida’s 99 delegates outright gives Trump an advantage over his competitors, who would need many huge showings to net that total over their rivals.
It also served the dual purpose of knocking out Marco Rubio, who lost to Trump handily in his home state. That could make it easier for Trump to hit the threshold, as one less candidate will now be competing to split the delegates, which will mostly be awarded proportionally.
John Kasich’s victory in Ohio deprives Trump of 66 delegates in that winner-take-all state, making it that much more challenging for the front-runner to find that many delegates elsewhere at one time.
The Kasich victory only keeps the Ohio governor alive to, perhaps, get to a contested convention—he was already mathematically unable to win the nomination no matter whether he held his home state.
Cruz stands to be the only candidate with any shot of defeating Trump before the convention, but his chances at reaching 1,237 delegates remain even more unlikely than Trump.
As of Tuesday night, Cruz has lost at least four of the races of the night, he sits more than 200 delegates behind the front-runner and would need more than 80 percent of outstanding delegates to finish with the delegate majority.
That hasn’t stopped Cruz supporters, as well as other Republicans hell-bent on depriving Trump the nomination by any means necessary, to call for the GOP to coalesce around Cruz, the senator whose made his name refusing to unite with his party’s establishment.
Avik Roy, a former Rubio health care adviser, immediately called for “Rubio supporters—and all conservatives—to united around [Ted Cruz]” in a post on Twitter.
Former Cruz aide Rick Tyler agreed.
“If John Kasich stays in the race, he may as well contribute all the money he spends in-kind to Donald Trump because he will make it so that Cruz cannot compete with him in the winner-take-all states,” he said Tuesday night on MSNBC.
If Kasich doesn’t last, the Texas senator could take advantage of the anti-Trump push and look to galvanize those supporters around him. But the Ohio governor has sworn to keep fighting until the convention, despite the fact he’s mathematically unable to reach the 1,237 threshold, so any coalescing appears unlikely.
So with a contested convention the most likely outcome, the main question shifts to how the field can deprive Trump of the delegate majority.
A contested convention would trigger a floor fight where anything could presumably happen. But Trump allies and some prominent Republicans have warned that denying Trump the nomination if he has a clear plurality.
At the same time, after the first ballot is cast and no one meets the 1,237 threshold, Trump, Cruz and Kasich can try to pick off each other’s candidates’ delegates, making it important for the campaigns to try to solidify loyalty among those who may, at the moment, be bound by their state’s primary outcome.
They also could make the play for the group of Rubio delegates who can be released by the candidate and will go to the convention unbound ahead of the first ballot. State laws differ--some will be forced to stick with Rubio, others will be automatically reallocated, but a significant portion will be up-for grabs.
But Cruz is running out of states where he can defeat Trump.
With Rubio out of the picture, Cruz will likely make a strong play for Utah’s 40 proportional delegates with the backing of the state’s junior senator, Mike Lee.
After that, Cruz will have to look to pick off delegates in congressional districts with heavy conservative populations to offset Trump’s further gains.
But with only five winner-take-all states left, Trump will almost assuredly continue to rack up delegates and make it difficult for Cruz to cut significantly into his lead even if Cruz is able to turn the tide.
Kasich told his supporters that he would head to Philadelphia after his win in Ohio, a move likely meant to shore up his support in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, which will hold contests toward the end of April. The Ohio governor won’t likely be able to make a serious play in any of the contests before then except for Wisconsin.
But Trump also looms large in the Northeast, especially if he can repeat his blowout victory in Massachusetts earlier this month where he won almost 50 percent of the vote. He’s also poised to do well in his home state of New York, as well as in Arizona, thanks to his harsh border control rhetoric and his endorsements from key conservatives in the state.
