Politico: GOP: Jeb can beat Hillary — but he might not make it past primary

[mystery-ak]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/gop-jeb-can-beat-hillary-but-he-might-not-make-it-past-primary-118913.html?hp=c2_3

GOP: Jeb can beat Hillary — but he might not make it past primary

On the eve of Bush’s official campaign launch, Republicans are confident he can defeat the Democratic front-runner. But New Hampshire is dicey for him and Iowa is looking like a lost cause.

By Katie Glueck

6/12/15 5:28 AM EDT

Despite a spell of rough headlines and a recent campaign shake-up, 70 percent of early-state Republicans think Jeb Bush could win their state in a general election contest against Hillary Clinton. But they’re not confident he‘ll make it out of the primary.

That’s the assessment of this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our bipartisan survey of top operatives, activists and elected officials in Iowa and New Hampshire.

On the eve of Bush’s expected presidential announcement Monday, only 32 percent of Iowa Republicans said he could win there if the caucuses were held today. His numbers were much stronger in New Hampshire — 86 percent of both Republicans and Democrats said he would win the primary as of now — yet many caution that his frontrunner status there is precarious.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/gop-jeb-can-beat-hillary-but-he-might-not-make-it-past-primary-118913.html#ixzz3cwhV9e6p

[DCPatriot]

BS.   In this current social climate, the only thing Jeb Bush can beat is a drum.

[Luis Gonzalez]

BS.   In this current social climate, the only thing Jeb Bush can beat is a drum.

Then again, if we went by national climate alone, and given Obama's ratings and current popularity, you'd think that the nation would never consider electing another President based solely on demographics and symbolism.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

[Lando Lincoln]

BS.   In this current social climate, the only thing Jeb Bush can beat is a drum.

Don't mistake what I am about to say as support for Jeb.  I have not reserved that for anyone as I want the program to play out.

But, I don't believe that DCP.  If Jeb can make it to platforms of high visibility, he will be found to be a different candidate than the other Bush politicos.  He is more articulate and has a smoother manner of speaking than his brother (generally).  He has his own views and political instincts.  He has a track record many applaud even if some revile.  Either way, he receives visibility and exposure to the I'm-Just-Passing-Through-Voter. 

Don't dismiss Jeb.

(Walker? He should stay in Wisconsin, I think.)

[DCPatriot]

Don't mistake what I am about to say as support for Jeb.  I have not reserved that for anyone as I want the program to play out.

But, I don't believe that DCP.  If Jeb can make it to platforms of high visibility, he will be found to be a different candidate than the other Bush politicos.  He is more articulate and has a smoother manner of speaking than his brother (generally).  He has his own views and political instincts.  He has a track record many applaud even if some revile.  Either way, he receives visibility and exposure to the I'm-Just-Passing-Through-Voter. 

Don't dismiss Jeb.

(Walker? He should stay in Wisconsin, I think.)

I understand exactly what you're saying, Lando.

But, I'm thinking of the tens of millions of LIVs, that don't peruse the political forums and/or Drudge, and only treat Presidential elections like obligatory jury duty every four years.

They've been brainwashed, thanks to the MSM, that any Bush is a return to the "bad old days", and that it was GWB that caused all this pain. 

They'll not accept another Bush as POTUS.

[Fishrrman]

Lando wrote above:
[[ Don't dismiss Jeb. ]]

I'm "dismissing" him, Lando.

This country is not going to elect another Bush. Period
Two Bushes in one lifetime are enough. There will not be three.

Having said that, the country could very well elect another Clinton.

If Jeb runs against over-the-Hillary, that's almost a certainty.

Even after the obama disaster.

One other thing:
If the Pubbies are instrumental in pushing through a secret "free trade bill" that has all kinds of ugly revelations that no one will see until after its passed, they are almost certainly going to go down in 2016.

Not just "plop"... but...
PLOP!

[Right_in_Virginia]

But, I'm thinking of the tens of millions of LIVs, that don't peruse the political forums and/or Drudge, and only treat Presidential elections like obligatory jury duty every four years.  They've been brainwashed, thanks to the MSM, that any Bush is a return to the "bad old days", and that it was GWB that caused all this pain. 

They'll not accept another Bush as POTUS.

Well, I'm not a LIV and I don't blame GWB for all the wrongs of the world, and I'll not accept another Bush as POTUS.  Three Bush presidents in 28 years are two too many. 

[Luis Gonzalez]

Yet...

He's within the margin of error against Hillary in the aggregate polls, has led the GOP primaries field in the same polls consistently from day one, and he's yet to announce.

To all the naysayers who believe that the country won't elect another Bush, I say that one should never overestimate the electorate's intelligence.

They've elected two Bushes, Obama twice and Hillary currently leads all polls. 

[truth_seeker]

GHW Bush was a better choice in 1992 than Clinton. GW Bush was a better choice in 2000 than Gore, and a better choice in 12004 than Kerry.

Jeb Bush would be a better choice in 2016 than Hillary.

To sit around now, and say "I would never vote for another Bush" reminds me of the supporters for Ross Perot."

Not called the "stupid party" for no reason.  Be assured the democrats will achieve the degree of unity, when the GOP will fail to do likewise.

So plainly, for the record, I will vote for ANY Republican over ANY democrat.

[Lando Lincoln]

Yes t_s, your painfully obvious point can be missed by the principled. Eventually, ultimately, finally, this election will come down to one real choice:

A
or
B

To piss it away by staying home or burning it on a third party because of some myopic notion is foolish, in my view. If the choice is:

Yellow Dog (R)
Or
Democrat

I am voting for the yellow dog.

[alicewonders]

I just think the time is coming closer and closer (and pretty darn close) that people will be sick of both parties completely ignoring them for their own self-interest.  That's how most parties get started anyway, when people are sick of the status quo.  I expect it will be largely libertarian, a little bit liberal and a little bit conservative. 

[truth_seeker]

I just think the time is coming closer and closer (and pretty darn close) that people will be sick of both parties completely ignoring them for their own self-interest.  That's how most parties get started anyway, when people are sick of the status quo.  I expect it will be largely libertarian, a little bit liberal and a little bit conservative.

The closest we got to that in my voting lifetime was Ross Perot in 1992. Upon sober reflection, I believe Bush lost because of that intra-Texas grudge match.

My personal  opinion is that the demographics are reducing the chance of electing a Conservative Republican to the Presidency.

Hillary will portray herself as centrist from day one. The GOP will have just come off primaries, which will often seem to have been Worlds Most Conservative Strongman contests.

Getting back to anywhere near the new center will be acrobatics to witness. Real conservatives are always threatening to unleash a band of hitherto invisible conservative voters, for just the right candidate.