False, Phys.org, West Africa’s Heavy Rains Aren’t Unusual or Due to Climate Change
By
Linnea Lueken
July 22, 2026
A recent post at Phys.org, “Climate change makes extreme West Africa rainfall five times likelier, study finds,” relies on a weather attribution study to assert that recent heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding in West Africa was made more likely to occur in what the attribution group calls “a pre-industrial climate.” This is misleading. History shows heavy rains and flooding are not uncommon across West Africa. The regional rainy seasons are driven by a combination of factors, including long-term ocean patterns and the West African monsoon.
Citing claims from World Weather Attribution (WWA), a climate activist group formed specifically to link climate change to weather events, Phys.org says that heavy rain was once considered rare and is getting worse. This is false. Seasonal heavy rain is a characteristic feature of the regional climate pattern. Although recent decades might be seeing a local (albeit sporadic) trend towards more heavy rains, it’s largely due to recovery from a larger multi-decadal climate pattern. In addition, even WWA’s authors admit that urbanization and land subsidence have a large impact on flooding that cannot be blamed on climate change alone. This means that human interventions can have a significant influence over any potential danger posed by weather, whether or not warming has anything to do with it.
The Phy.org post reports on May and June’s heavy rainfall in West African coastal countries, from the Ivory Coast to Nigeria, which led to deadly flooding and structural damage. Phy.org cites WWA, which wrote that “climate change driven by human greenhouse gas emissions had increased the likelihood of the rains that caused the floods while also boosting their intensity by between 4% and 23%.” WWA goes on to claim that the events were “once considered rare” but now are “expected every two or four years in the region.” It should be noted that 4 percent and 23 percent are very different, this is a massive range of uncertainty.
https://climaterealism.com/2026/07/false-phys-org-west-africas-heavy-rains-arent-unusual-or-due-to-climate-change/
