Four Million Sinking Homes
12 hours ago Charles Rotter
The rainfall data behind it shows no drying trend. The geology behind it has been stable since before the Romans. And the number the press ran was the one from the dead scenario.
Charles Rotter
“Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent at risk of sinking as climate crisis worsens,” said the Guardian. AOL ran it. The story bounced around the usual outlets, all of them leading with the same number: more than four million British homes at risk from climate-driven subsidence by 2070. The source is the British Geological Survey, which is a serious institution, or used to be, and that is what makes this one worth a few minutes.
Paul Homewood already did the legwork on the rainfall trends, and I will not repeat all of it. He pulled the Met Office’s own spring rainfall series back to 1840 and the summer rainfall for South East England back to 1875, and the short version is that there is no trend. Dry springs were more common a century ago. The last really dry summer in the South East was 1995. If the South of England is drying out, the South of England has not been told. Go read his piece for the charts. They are the kind of charts that end an argument.
What I want to walk through is the foundation the four million number sits on, because once you see it, you cannot unsee it, and it is the same foundation holding up half of British climate policy.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/06/17/four-million-sinking-homes/
