In Russian military parade meant to project power, analysts see ‘real vulnerability’
“I think what we saw on Red Square is, in a way… the real nervousness now in Moscow about the sustainability of all this," the Chatham House's Timothy Ash told Breaking Defense.
By Tim Martin and Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo on May 12, 2026 11:23 am
Russian servicemen march on Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow on May 9, 2026. (Igor IVANKO / AFP via Getty Images)
BELFAST and MILAN — Russia’s Victory Day parade in Red Square over the weekend came and went without the usual accompaniment of high-end weapon systems and power projection that has long symbolized the annual event, as Moscow decided to scale back on both hardware and military personnel amid fears of a Ukrainian attack.
While normally defense analysts use the parade to gauge Russian military and technical prowess, several told Breaking Defense that this year the lack of gear showed something else: Moscow’s implicit acknowledgement that Ukrainian capabilities remains a serious threat, more than four years since Russia’s invasion. One described it also as potentially a watershed moment in President Vladimir Putin’s declining grip on power, behind only the short-lived coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the former leader of the Wagner Group.
The parade on Saturday was “quite extraordinary” and showed “real vulnerability” on the part of Russia, said Timothy Ash, associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, a UK-based think-tank.
“I think what we saw on Red Square is, in a way … the real nervousness now in Moscow about the sustainability of all this” in terms of the war with Ukraine and Russia’s spiralling economy, Ash told Breaking Defense on Monday. “They’re in this war they can’t get out of, the Ukrainians have held the frontlines and are pushing them back through using technology. They have this deep strike capability.”
https://breakingdefense.com/2026/05/in-russian-military-parade-meant-to-project-power-analysts-see-real-vulnerability/
