Trump's High-stakes Gamble
The combat operations against Iran are high stakes for President Trump.
J. Robert Smith | March 3, 2026
The combat operations against Iran are high stakes for President Trump. Donald Trump, a gamesman par excellence, is taking a big risk. But Trump is accustomed to high-stakes risks. Yet it’s also big stakes for Democrats, many of whom crawled out of their holes this past weekend. Many were found at X. Predators that they are, they believe that Trump has exposed his soft underbelly. Possibly. But they’re likely in for a surprise, and not a good one.
If the president succeeds and the murderous mullahs’ regime is consigned to history’s dustbin, benefits to U.S. national security will accrue from peace in the Middle East (the Abraham Accords gain traction), an end to mullah-instigated terrorism, an end to Iranian oil politics, and -- last but critically -- another prop knocked out from under China, which depends on Iranian oil. The PRC depends on Iranian and Russian oil in its drive to achieve global hegemony. And, not incidentally, Venezuelan oil, over which the U.S. has gained effective control. Trump is being vastly strategic. In this game of chess, his moves are designed to serve multiple ends. Careful calculation undergirds his audacity.
On the other hand, if the war fails -- if it’s protracted; if an aircraft carrier is sunk and scores of service personnel return home in body bags; if there are major Iranian-instigated terrorist attacks at home; if enough radical mullahs and Iranian Guard commanders survive and are still running the show -- then Trump’s presidency is finished. In this year’s midterm elections, the weird, leftist, mostly anti-American Democrat Party will roll up Republicans like Persian rugs. In part, because a lot of demoralized GOP voters won’t vote. Good luck to J.D. Vance or whoever is the GOP nominee in 2028. Putting enough distance between Vance or whoever and a war fiasco will be futile.
But there’s an alternative end. What if the U.S.-Israeli partnership and the Arab states now aligned against Iran accomplish the mission?
If success comes, Democrats are in trouble. Being on the wrong side of “mission accomplished” is bad politics.
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