Humans will contact ‘loud’ alien civilization on the brink of ‘violent’ collapse

[Kamaji]

Humans will contact ‘loud’ alien civilization on the brink of ‘violent’ collapse: Columbia astronomer

By Ben Cost   
Published Dec. 22, 2025

When ET phones home, it could be his last call.

Contrary to sci-fi movie depictions, our first contact might not be with a super advanced alien civilization at the height of power.

Rather, Ivy League astronomer Dr. David Kipping argues that we’re more likely to meet “unusually loud” extraterrestrials whose empire is in decline.

“Hollywood has preconditioned us to expect one of two types of alien contact, either a hostile invasion force or a benevolent species bestowing wisdom to humanity,” the space expert, who hails from the UK but runs Columbia University’s Cool Worlds Lab, postulated in a Youtube video.

He declared that more likely, our flagship close encounter “is with a civilization in its death throes, one that is violently flailing before the end” — like an intergalactic version of the late-stage Roman Empire.

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Source:  https://nypost.com/2025/12/22/science/humans-will-contact-loud-alien-civilization-on-the-brink-of-violent-collapse-columbia-astronomer/

[BobfromWB]

The Eschatian Hypothesis thus argues that humanity’s first confirmed detection of another intelligence could be that of an inherently unstable, transitory, atypical but very loud example,” Kipping declared.

Kipping outlined this bold theory, dubbed the Eschatian Hypothesis, in a new study appears in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.09970

Lots of this:
"For example, if the duty cycle of civilizations being loud is η+ = 10−6, then the Eschatian Hypothesis holds if L+/L− > 104."

[BobfromWB]

Here's the YT video on this new alien theory:

Fermi Paradox and Escathian Hypothesis: Will We Only Find Dying Aliens? 16min

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwTonaCa1nY