Big Changes in the Big Three 2025 Elections
Adam Turner
There are three prominent elections that political observers are focusing on this year – New Jersey Governor, New York Mayor, and Virginia Governor.
Here is my latest update for each of these races:
New Jersey Governor: Tilt D (But an Upset is Very Possible)The biggest change has occurred in New Jersey, where the Democratic nominee for governor is Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, and the Republican nominee is Jack Ciattarelli. Although the RCP average still shows a 6.5-point gap in her favor, several new polls have come out to encourage Republicans. Emerson has shown a tie at 43%, while a Republican internal has shown Ciattarelli ahead.
Now, campaign polls are good polls. The only problem is that sometimes one campaign poll will atypically show a better result than the normal daily poll results, and that is the poll that the campaign releases to get its partisans enthused. Which means that a campaign poll can be used to manipulate the race.
However, right after this internal was released, the Emerson poll came out showing a dead heat. This provides good evidence that the GOP internal was not an outlier. It is also a big positive that most polls show the GOP candidate ahead two-to-one among independents.
Further, the Democratic National Committee just doubled its spending on the campaign to $3 million, the most it’s ever shelled out in New Jersey for an off-year election. They are clearly concerned.
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https://redstate.com/adam-turner/2025/09/29/updates-in-the-big-three-2025-elections-n2194479
