'Death Cycle': Dem Bleedout Is Real -- And Spectacular
Ed Morrissey
With all of the discussion of a mid-cycle census and a fight brewing over a proposed mid-cycle reapportionment, much attention has focused on the flight of conservatives and moderates from blue states to red states. And for good reason; even if Donald Trump can't get an extraordinary Enumeration before the regular census in 2030, blue states will lose significant representation in Congress by 2033. California and New York will likely lose four House seats each by the 2030 census, and other blue states could lose up to a half-dozen or more. Americans have spent the last several years literally voting with their feet, and the bill will come due soon.
That is not the only method of flight from the Democrat Party, however. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher did a deep dive into the trends of partisan affiliation, partnering with data firm L2 to determine those ebbs and flows. (Full disclosure: L2 partnered with me on my book Going Red gratis and allowed me to use their powerful database.) If Goldmacher's data is accurate, the census may be the least of Democrat worries.
They are in the middle of a bleed-out that may have no end in sight. They are losing ground in literally every corner of the country:
The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too, according to a new analysis of voter registration data by The New York Times. The analysis used voter registration data compiled by L2, a nonpartisan data firm.
Few measurements reflect the luster of a political party’s brand more clearly than the choice by voters to identify with it — whether they register on a clipboard in a supermarket parking lot, at the Department of Motor Vehicles or in the comfort of their own home.
And fewer and fewer Americans are choosing to be Democrats.
In fact, for the first time since 2018, more new voters nationwide chose to be Republicans than Democrats last year.
All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections in the 30 states, along with Washington, D.C., that allow people to register with a political party. (In the remaining 20 states, voters do not register with a political party.) Republicans gained 2.4 million.
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https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2025/08/20/nyt-dem-bleedout-is-real-and-spectacular-n3805985
