The Ukraine War Was Always Going To End This Way

[mystery-ak]

The Ukraine War Was Always Going To End This Way
John Daniel Davidson


President Donald Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday didn’t yield the ceasefire deal Trump was hoping for, but there was apparently enough progress made that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and top European leaders are meeting with Trump in Washington today to discuss the possibility of peace negotiations and a deal to end to the war for good.

What might such a deal look like? Simply put, it would consist of territorial concessions in exchange for security agreements. Ukraine would cede portions of Russian-occupied territory in Crimea and the eastern provinces in exchange for a security alliance with the United States and European powers. Trump himself has alluded to this, mentioning “land swaps” ahead of his meeting with Putin on Friday.

This formula — Ukrainian territorial concessions in exchange for security and political independence — was always how the Ukraine war was going to end. The corporate press is pretending to be shocked and scandalized by the mention of an adjustment of Ukraine’s borders, but the outrage is feigned. Given Russia’s strategic imperatives and Ukraine’s indefensible borders, the broad outlines of a peace settlement are exactly what they were in February 2022, before Russia launched its invasion.

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https://thefederalist.com/2025/08/18/the-ukraine-war-was-always-going-to-end-this-way/

[Timber Rattler]

As it now stands, Ukraine can have political independence or territorial integrity, but it cannot have both. That was true in 2014, it was true in 2022 before the Russian invasion, and it is true today. It’s not parroting Russian propaganda to say that Ukraine will have lasting peace and stability only with an adjustment of its borders, it’s simply a statement of historical fact. If Ukraine wants to be oriented toward Europe and politically independent of Russia, then its borders will have to be adjusted.

Just another garbage article from a supposed "Conservative" outlet.

I'm old enough to remember when Conservatives used to stand up against despotic regimes, especially when they invade democratic, western-oriented, friendly countries like Ukraine.  Now, it seems that the "mainstream" Conservatives, such as they are, have embraced isolationism, appeasement, and "land for peace," all predicated on the premise that murderous thugs like Putin are good faith negotiating partners.  They are NOT.  And I also object strenuously to the idea that Russia somehow has legitimate security concerns in Europe and believes that NATO is a threat.  It does not, and NATO is not.

And I'd like to know why John Daniel Davidson here believes that Putin is a man of his word, wants peace, and would agree to recognize whatever new boundaries might be imposed on Ukraine?  Putin has violated every agreement he has ever signed, and has no intention of stopping in eastern Ukraine.  He wants the whole hog, followed by Moldova and the Baltics.  Has everybody forgotten about Hitler and Chamberlain in Munich 1938?

How and why Conservatives have so eagerly drunk the propaganda poison that the Kremlin has brewed in the media is beyond me, but Ronald Reagan would be appalled by it all.  This is NOT the Conservatism I grew up with.

[Free Vulcan]

This is the adult thinking in the room. Bottom line is Ukraine is never going to win back the territory it lost, it simply doesn't have the capability to do so without heavy intervention from outside force which no one is going to supply.

I think for that concession the rest of Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO. Kudos to them for using drones to great effectiveness against Russia, the US should use this as leverage to warn them that we will happily supply Ukraine the ability to build enough to take out their oil distribution infrastracture, as we know that it 's their vulnerable cash pipeline.

I'd still threaten Russia to give Ukraine back it's nukes to show we mean business. This is what Russia understands, if you want peace with them you have to strong arm them into it.

[DefiantMassRINO]

The Ukraine War was not going to end for the Ukrainians if they did not established air supremacy. 

As long as Russia had supremacy in the air, Ukraine would not be able to make substantial gains on the ground.

Lucky for Putin, Biden would not allow NATO members to give their old Soviet aircraft to Ukraine early in the war.

[MeganC]

Simply put, it would consist of territorial concessions in exchange for security agreements.

Last I checked Ukraine gave up their nukes and a bunch of their weaponry to Russia in exchange for 'security agreements' that Russia violated.

Russia didn't honor those agreements and only a damned fool would believe they'd honor any new agreements.

I'm also noticing those pricks are insisting that a peace deal in Ukraine will include Russia getting a veto on any future countries joining the EU or NATO.

Piss off, Russia. 

[DefiantMassRINO]

The last 'security agreement' hasn't worked out well for Ukraine.

Plus, coneding Donetsk on behalf of Ukraine will embolden the Chi-coms to take Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Conceding Austria, Rhineland, and Sudetenland did not pacify Hilter.  Conceding Donetsk will not pacify Putin; it will embolden him.

Putin will not only want to exclude Ukraine from joining NATO, he'll also want to exlcude Ukraine from joining the European Union.

The corollary is the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.  Slovenia and Croatia fought for independence from Serbia so they could join the European Union.  A successful and prosperous Slovenia and Croatia was seen as a threat to the Serbian regime in Belgrade.

Russia wants and needs to maintain Ukraine as a vassal client state.  A Ukraine alligned with the West is a threat to Putin's rule of Russia.

If there is a prosperous Ukraine as a member of the European Union, Russians will clamor for political and economic reform in Russia.

[berdie]

The last 'security agreement' hasn't worked out well for Ukraine.

Plus, coneding Donetsk on behalf of Ukraine will embolden the Chi-coms to take Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Conceding Austria, Rhineland, and Sudetenland did not pacify Hilter.  Conceding Donetsk will not pacify Putin; it will embolden him.

Putin will not only want to exclude Ukraine from joining NATO, he'll also want to exlcude Ukraine from joining the European Union.

The corollary is the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.  Slovenia and Croatia fought for independence from Serbia so they could join the European Union.  A successful and prosperous Slovenia and Croatia was seen as a threat to the Serbian regime in Belgrade.

Russia wants and needs to maintain Ukraine as a vassal client state.  A Ukraine alligned with the West is a threat to Putin's rule of Russia.

If there is a prosperous Ukraine as a member of the European Union, Russians will clamor for political and economic reform in Russia.

Good post. And all true.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

The last 'security agreement' hasn't worked out well for Ukraine.

Plus, coneding Donetsk on behalf of Ukraine will embolden the Chi-coms to take Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Conceding Austria, Rhineland, and Sudetenland did not pacify Hilter.  Conceding Donetsk will not pacify Putin; it will embolden him.

Putin will not only want to exclude Ukraine from joining NATO, he'll also want to exlcude Ukraine from joining the European Union.

The corollary is the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.  Slovenia and Croatia fought for independence from Serbia so they could join the European Union.  A successful and prosperous Slovenia and Croatia was seen as a threat to the Serbian regime in Belgrade.

Russia wants and needs to maintain Ukraine as a vassal client state.  A Ukraine alligned with the West is a threat to Putin's rule of Russia.

If there is a prosperous Ukraine as a member of the European Union, Russians will clamor for political and economic reform in Russia.

Plus you know, Putin isn't even as competent as Hitler was. The Ukranians are punching well above their weight. Trump is giving Putin an easy out. I hope Zelensky says not.

[Timber Rattler]

My friend Petrosius posted this over at TOS, and I think it hits the mark:

You may be right but that has nothing to do with Ukraine's defense against the Russian invasion. Too many people are coloring their views about the war with their animosity to the Obama/Biden regimes. It is they who are making this a proxy war. By supporting Russia they think that they are winning a victory over their hated Deep State/Globalists/Neocons. In the meantime, the Ukrainians are just fighting for their survival

100% accurate!

[Hoodat]

I'm old enough to remember when Conservatives used to stand up against despotic regimes, especially when they invade democratic, western-oriented, friendly countries like Ukraine.  Now, it seems that the "mainstream" Conservatives, such as they are, have embraced isolationism, appeasement, and "land for peace," all predicated on the premise that murderous thugs like Putin are good faith negotiating partners.  They are NOT.  And I also object strenuously to the idea that Russia somehow has legitimate security concerns in Europe and believes that NATO is a threat.  It does not, and NATO is not.

And I'd like to know why John Daniel Davidson here believes that Putin is a man of his word, wants peace, and would agree to recognize whatever new boundaries might be imposed on Ukraine?  Putin has violated every agreement he has ever signed, and has no intention of stopping in eastern Ukraine.  He wants the whole hog, followed by Moldova and the Baltics.  Has everybody forgotten about Hitler and Chamberlain in Munich 1938?

How and why Conservatives have so eagerly drunk the propaganda poison that the Kremlin has brewed in the media is beyond me, but Ronald Reagan would be appalled by it all.  This is NOT the Conservatism I grew up with.

Very well stated.

[MeganC]

Plus you know, Putin isn't even as competent as Hitler was. The Ukranians are punching well above their weight.

Myself I do not believe the Ukrainians are punching above their weight. If anything they could have been better prepared for the Russian invasion in 2014.

That said, the Russians turned out to be overrated. They are not a superpower. They are a heavily armed and poorly organized mob. Up against an adequately trained and equipped army they get slaughtered.

[berdie]

Myself I do not believe the Ukrainians are punching above their weight. If anything they could have been better prepared for the Russian invasion in 2014.

That said, the Russians turned out to be overrated. They are not a superpower. They are a heavily armed and poorly organized mob. Up against an adequately trained and equipped army they get slaughtered.

I heard one of the talking heads point out something I hadn't thought of. If Putin gains control of Ukraine, not only does he get the property and wealth involved, he gets their army and weapons. (not that I think the Uke army would fight with the same vigor for him as they do for their own country.)

[MeganC]

I heard one of the talking heads point out something I hadn't thought of. If Putin gains control of Ukraine, not only does he get the property and wealth involved, he gets their army and weapons. (not that I think the Uke army would fight with the same vigor for him as they do for their own country.)

If Putin conquers Ukraine he'll slaughter whatever's left of anyone who opposed him in Ukraine. It's a Russian tradition called a 'pogrom'.

[jmyrlefuller]

The war ends when Putin dies, and not a day before.

Both sides are too far dug in to bring an end to it. And as I've said before, the Ukrainians have ulterior motives for milking this invasion as long as they can.

[Timber Rattler]

And as I've said before, the Ukrainians have ulterior motives for milking this invasion as long as they can.

What, watching their own cities get destroyed and their people slaughtered?