Dems Hope For ‘Blue Wave’ Dashed By Top-Rated Pollster
Published 4 hours ago
on August 4, 2025
By Mark Steffen
Mounting anger at the Trump administration was supposed to catalyze a nationwide movement by Democrats to recapture Congress on their way to the White House in 2028. Or at least that’s what party leaders have been telling anxious donors in recent months.
That mirage dissipated on Monday with the release of a new poll suggesting that a “blue trickle” is all that will emerge from the midterms as growing antipathy toward the Democratic Party has produced its lowest approval ratings in modern history, while scores of historical donors hold back on new gifts.
Central to their struggles is the Democrats’ inability to claw back large swaths of minority and working-class voters who lurched to the right in 2024. Compounded with Texas’ redistricting effort and a chasmic fundraising gap that exists compared to the Republican National Committee, Democratic Party Chair Ken Martin has his work cut out for him, to say the least.
“I don’t see a blue wave,” said Matt Taglia, senior director of the nonpartisan Emerson College polling department. “It’s more like a blue trickle.”
To be sure, observers still believe Democrats have a shot at regaining control of the U.S. House, where several vulnerable Republicans are up for reelection in districts that Trump lost in 2024.
That’s prompted Democrats to return home during the August recess with a plan to stoke resentment against Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill and funding cuts they claim will result in millions of Americans losing access to Medicaid, food stamps, or other social safety net programs.However, some party thought leaders are not convinced that Democrats have cobbled together a winning message.
“There’s a lot of angst about the Democratic Party writ large. I totally hear that. But you have evidence of people on the Democratic side pretty motivated to come out and vote,” said Neera Tanden, a former Biden advisor who now serves as president and CEO of the left-leaning think tank Center for American Progress. “I think the midterm election will be about who is angrier.”
Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told Politico, “It’s clear that Democrats are on a path back to the House majority come 2026.”
Republicans, meanwhile, are rejecting the idea that Democrats have performed an adequate autopsy on their dismal 2024 results in time to pivot back toward success.
“Vulnerable House Democrats are sitting on our turf,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “They’re getting blown out of the water in the money race, they’re eating their own in messy primaries, the Democrat Party’s approval ratings are at rock bottom, they are consistently on the wrong side of wildly popular issues, and they’ve completely lost touch with hardworking Americans.”
Polling by the Wall Street Journal shows an average of 63% of voters hold negative views about the Democratic Party, the lowest point in three decades. Generic Democrat-versus-Republican matchups give the party a slim 2-point lead, according to Emerson College and YouGov.
Insiders say that number needs to triple or more before Democrats can start counting on clinching one of the congressional chambers.
“If we get to March of next year and we still see Democrats at 2 or 3 points up in the generic ballot, that is alarm bells for them,” Taglia said. “They’re going to want to be at least 4 points up. For their ideal result, probably more like 6 points … Then you’re starting to look a little bit like a blue wave.”
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