America’s Military Is in Big Trouble
U.S. leaders are marching the armed forces down the path of self-destruction.
The_Last_Stand,_by_William_Barnes_Wollen_(1898)
Michael Vlahos
Jul 27, 2025
12:03 AM
Big change in the military is typically framed as a “revolution” or “transformation” and is almost always about “innovating” and “adapting” to new technology. Yet the most important—and most worrisome—form of change is usually not driven by technology.
Simply, it is the loss of military effectiveness, often coming as a rapid-onset decline. Armed forces that have reached “peak war” status in victorious and decisive battle can—and do—quickly lose their combat edge. An extreme example is the U.S. Army during the American Civil War. In 1865, it was the greatest army on earth. Within months it was demobilized, its expertise gone.
Of course, some of this is natural. Long-service legionary armies are drained by years of peace. Battle-scarred veterans age out and retire, and junior assault leaders rise at last to command an army of green young officers untested in combat. Next time they lose. This is the way of things.
Sometimes, when an adversary surprises with a hot new “wonder weapon,” technology can suddenly shift the goal posts of military effectiveness. Yet there are other, and arguably more likely, ways in which a “peak war” force can lose its edge, and fast. Here are four non-tech roads to rapid onset military decline, with historical examples that should feel familiar. So too should the danger, which lies in an unravelling that goes unnoticed or denied, and thus unaddressed, until it is too late to remedy.
First, the unexpected rise or resurgence of a rival power can dramatically shift the terms of military effectiveness. This is a relative shift, but it is very real. In 1860 the French Army, by reputation, was the world’s best. In the preceding five years it had defeated both the second- and third-ranked armies in open battle. Yet just six years later, the esteemed Austrian army was blasted by a new nation—the German Confederation—which had no legacy military reputation at all. Rather than triggering wholesale, top-to-bottom Armée reform and a national mobilization, however, France’s superb but way too small all-volunteer force turned instead to “game changer” technology like the mighty Mitrailleuse. When the reckoning came for France just four years later, defeat was not merely complete; it was shameful.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/americas-military-is-in-big-trouble/
