The Nearing Crisis of Demographics
By George Friedman -July 8, 2025
There are moments when I am exhausted by crises that come and go, and remember the next real existential crisis of humanity. It puts things in perspective. Please forgive my momentary indifference to the current crisis of the week.
In my 2009 book, “The Next 100 Years,” I forecast that the next major socioeconomic problem would stem from a demographic crisis, with falling birth rates, decreasing death rates and increased life expectancy.
Birth rates are falling in the United States and other parts of the world. Last year, the U.S. birth rate was about equal to the death rate. Next year, the death rate is expected to be slightly higher than the birth rate. According to forecasts, in the next 10 years – perhaps as early as 2033 – declining birth rates will become a long-term reality at the same time that life expectancy increases to 80.4 years from 78.4 years. This seems like a small increase, but given the size of that age group and the contracting birth rate, it implies an era-defining crisis.
My model of American history is that the socioeconomic status quo shifts every 50 years. I forecast that the late 2020s will be when the current cycle ends and the new one begins. If I am right, and the numbers seem to indicate it, then the issues we are obsessed with at the moment will fade into history just as Watergate did.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-nearing-crisis-of-demographics/
