Cliff Mass Weather Blog
May 16, 2025
The Atmosphere is Now in Neutral
Midway through May is a good time to check on the status of El Nino/La Nina, since its status becomes clearer at this time of the year and will have a major impact on the weather of next winter.
NOAA's latest forecast is out....and I will describe it below.
El Nino and La Nina are on the opposite poles of the same phenomenon: the shift of the waters of the central tropical Pacific from warmer than normal (El Nino), to near normal (Neutral of La Nada), to below normal (La Nina).
A plot of the sea surface temperatures in this critical area (the Niño3.4 area) is shown below (actually the differences from normal). After experiencing the cool waters this winter (La Nina), we are now in neutral territory.
The correlation of the tropical water temperature with our weather during the summer is weak in any case, but winter is a different story.
So what do the latest forecasts suggest? As shown below, although there is quite a range in predictions, the general trend is towards continued neutral conditions for the remainder of the year.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/05/17/the-atmosphere-is-now-in-neutral/
