FROM HYPERSONICS TO ALLIANCES: RUSSIA’S EMERGING THREATS TO U.S. AND NATO SECURITY
Eric Uribe May 15, 2025
Russian innovations with short/medium-range hypersonic weapons present the main challenge to the United States.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues into its fourth full year of full-scale war and with the entrance of a new U.S. presidential administration, the security environment for the United States vis-à-vis Russia has changed rapidly. Russian lessons learned, strategic innovations, and battlefield successes and failures have generated new challenges that will threaten U.S. national security in the near term. Within this article, a strategic threat is defined as a factor that denies or mitigates the United States’ ability to employ its current warfighting doctrine, conduct combat operations, or effectively protect its allies. Despite the recent focus on Russian ground operations, in the next 3-5 years, the most prominent Russian strategic threats to the United States will be advancements in hypersonic technology, Russia’s use of its regional and global partnerships to bolster munitions production, and Russia’s leveraging of partnerships to expand its geographic advantage. Also, Russia’s massed offensive maneuver capability will remain a challenge but likely will decrease over the next 2-3 years as the Russians seek to reconstitute their losses.
Emerging Threat #1-Advanced Weapons Development: Hypersonic Missiles
Russian innovations with short/medium-range hypersonic weapons present the main challenge to the United States. These weapons can destabilize the current offense-defense balance that informs the military strategy for both the United States and Russia. The new Russian Khinzal and Zircon hypersonic missiles can defeat U.S. and European air defenses not only through the massing of effects, supported by Russia’s increased production rates, but also due to the weapons ability to maintain its radar defeating plasma layer through the terminal phase when striking static targets. This capability would tilt the offensive advantage in favor of Russia, which could conduct strikes on strategic infrastructure across Europe that hinders the U.S. ability to respond to adversary aggression or come to the aid of NATO allies with resources both inside and outside the theater of operations.
The urgency to address this threat grows more pressing for several reasons. First, due to the relative success of the Patriot air defense system in Ukraine against Iskander, Kalibr, and Geran-2 drones, NATO and the United States have doubled down on investments in these systems. Several countries, including Germany and Romania, are actively pursuing the procurement of additional batteries, while the United States is investing in expanding interceptor and platform production. Expanded focus on the Patriot system as a European shield consumes large amounts of precious capital with little tangible alternative if a superior weapon renders that investment obsolete. Second, Russia’s hypersonic weapons are increasing their effectiveness against the Patriots. In early 2024, Russian and Ukrainian sources reported the employment of Zircon hypersonic missiles in Ukraine. Officials claimed Patriots intercepted only one Zircon, which departs from this system’s typically high intercept rate. Finally, with its mass serial production announced in February 2024 and the development of a ground-based launcher, the Zircons’ initial effectiveness over the Patriot system threatens to negate the effectiveness of U.S. and NATO air defense in the region. Furthermore, considering the similar $3 million cost of Patriot interceptors and Zircon missiles, Russia will seek to harness its increased industrial production base over the next several years to outproduce the West. These factors will support Russia’s drive to gain an asymmetric advantage over Western air defenses. If achieved, this advantage will enable Russia to target infrastructure critical to U.S. warfighting and ally support at its chosen time.
https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/hypersonics-and-alliances/
