May 08, 2025
NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem
Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA's global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.
This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined. This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.
But it is worse than that.
NOAA global predictions have a severe "drop out" problem in which there are sharp, precipitous declines in forecast skill. Major declines in skill not shared by other major weather prediction centers.
Let me show you.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/05/noaas-forecast-model-has-drop-out.html
