Still Hoping for a Deal with Iran? Here’s Why It Won’t Work
by Loqman Radpey
05.08.2025 at 06:00am
Still Hoping for a Deal with Iran? Here’s Why It Won’t Work Image
A third round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran took place in Oman during the last week of April 2025. More rounds are expected, with both sides pushing hard to get what they want out of the deal. But what exactly has changed since the U.S. pulled out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)? Why are some U.S. officials still holding out, talking about “very good progress” like this time will somehow be different? That’s where we need to ask a more foundational question: Can there ever be a reliable, enforceable nuclear and missile non-proliferation agreement with Iran—one that Iran would actually honor? Answering that requires understanding the regime at its core.
Since signing of JCPOA in July 2015, the U.S. has cycled through two Republican and two Democratic administrations. Iran, however, has remained the same. Its leadership structure and its ideological base have not budged. It does not matter whether a so-called “reformist” like Rouhani or Pezeshkian or a “hardliner” like Raisi is in office—the fundamental nature of the regime does not change.
What we are dealing with is not a state that responds to international norms, but an ideological theocracy rooted in Perso-Shia supremacy and anti-Western resistance. Western analysts and policymakers in mainstream media too often ignore this fact. Instead of confronting the regime’s deeply held beliefs and intentions, they try to explain Iran’s actions as rational, strategic responses to outside pressures or search for the rational justifications of its behaviors. But that analysis falls short. This is not just a question of carrots and sticks—it is about identity.
https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/05/08/still-hoping-for-a-deal-with-iran-heres-why-it-wont-work/
