Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #641
35 minutes ago Guest Blogger
The Week That Was: 2025 05-03 (May 3, 2025)
Brought to You by SEPP (
www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “We can always prove a definite theory wrong. Notice however that we never prove it right.” — Richard Feynman (1964)
Number of the Week: R squared of 0.018.
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: TWTW begins with an exploration of proof of the greenhouse effect, discussing what constitutes proof of a theory in modern physics. TWTW continues with a discussion of the failings of the hockey-stick and its defenders by Donald Rapp. TWTW then brings up the Iberian Blackout and presents a power engineer’s assessment of the problems of using solar power on a national grid.
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Proof of the Greenhouse Effect: Several readers have asked, “What proof of the greenhouse effect do you have?” This question raises the critical issue of what constitutes proof of a theory (hypothesis) in modern physical sciences. Note that issue is proof of a theory, not proof of an event or fact. The answer to the question of “What proof do you have?” is NONE. However, the greenhouse theory has never been disproved. (Here, logical induction is not considered proof.)
This approach to proof stems from the history of science. For centuries certain theories of planetary motion were accepted as true but later discarded when disproven and a better theory was accepted. For example, Newtonian mechanics replaced the centuries old belief that Earth was the center of the universe. It better explained planetary motion. In turn, general relativity replaced Newtonian mechanics because it better explained planetary motion. Mercury was not keeping time according to Newtonian mechanics, although Newtonian mechanics was particularly good. (Einstein’s 1915 formula for the precession of Mercury was discovered in 1898 by Paul Gerber.)
Theories (hypotheses) must be definite, that is, testable and falsifiable. Otherwise, they are of limited value and should not be accepted. (For example, climate change is not a testable, falsifiable concept. Earth’s climate has always been changing. The issues are “what change?” and “what is the magnitude of the change?” “Is the proposed cause definite?”) The outstanding theoretical physicist, and teacher Richard Feynman gave an excellent lecture explaining the modern scientific method in “Seeking New Laws.” The lecture was the source of this week’s Quote of the Week. The lengthy lecture begins with:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/05/05/weekly-climate-and-energy-news-roundup-641/
