How long will the Arctic ice pause last?
The Observatory
15 Apr 2025
Written By Dr David Whitehouse
Twenty years ago, it would have taken a bold scientist to go against the consensus and predict that a sustained pause in Arctic ice-loss was imminent. Even ten years ago, there were predictions of ice-free summers within a decade or so. Yet, it happened. Although Arctic ice extent has halved since the first satellite records began in 1979, over the past two decades Arctic sea-ice loss has slowed considerably, with no statistically significant decline in September extent – the annual minimum. But you can sometimes make even such unequivocal (albeit noisy) data say something else. Specifically, deny a the ice-pause is significant because it might, or might not continue!
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