https://www.npr.org/2024/11/22/nx-s1-5199119/2024-election-exit-polls-demographics-black-latino-votersBy Domenico Montanaro, Elena Moore, Nick McMillan, Connie Hanzhang Jin, Daniel Wood
November 22, 2024
In the debate over whether demography is destiny, the 2024 presidential election showed clearly it is not.
Democrats long believed that the diversifying of the country would lead to their party's long-term success, but President-elect Trump was able to win over many of the voters Democrats believed they could rely on, showing identity is less important when people feel negatively toward the incumbent party on things like prices and immigration.
The demographic shifts seen in this election were pronounced in the swing states, with different groups mattering to different degrees in Trump's sweep, according to exit polls.
There were some clear trends
(paraphrased for brevity):
- Democrats lost ground with voters under 30 in most swing states except GA and AZ.
- Latinos broke heavily for the GOP, +20 points in PA, MI, NV.
- Black voters' shift was less pronounced, except WI.
- White turnout rose enough to affect the turnout.
- Older voters shifted toward the Democrats.
(excerpt)
