Polls are ‘underestimating’ turnout for Kamala Harris, Allan Lichtman argues
By
Peter Cordi
October 17, 2024 3:49 pm
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Presidential historian Allan Lichtman believes the current polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris sliding against former President Donald Trump are “underestimating Democratic voting strength.”
During a Wednesday YouTube livestream, the American University professor, who has predicted Harris would beat Trump in November, suggested that reports of Democrats pulling ahead in mail-in voting in certain states bode well for them. However, Democrats already made up the majority of mail-in voters, and Republicans have reportedly increased their relative shares in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
“The polls in 2016 underestimated Republican voting strength,” Lichtman said. “It’s my view based on what I saw from 2022-2024 that the polls are now underestimating Democratic voting strength.”
Lichtman pointed to the special election to replace disgraced former House Republican George Santos in New York, noting “the Democrat outperformed the poll right before the election by seven points.”
Santos pled guilty to charges related to campaign fraud in August.
“Even if the polls are off by a point or two, the Democrats are going to do a point or two better than the polls — they will sweep Pennsylvania,” Lichtman declared.
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3193339/2024-election-polls-underestimating-turnout-kamala-harris-allan-lichtman/
