Gray Hulls in the Gray Zone: Indonesia’s Conundrum in the South China Sea
Due to long-time neglect of its coast guard equivalent, Indonesia has been forced to use its navy to respond to China’s incursions – giving Beijing an excuse to do the same.
By Joseph Kristanto
October 02, 2024
The South China Sea has seen its fair share of clashes and conflicts as China tries to assert its claim over nearly the entire body of water. Such efforts continue even after an arbitral tribunal set up under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ruled overwhelmingly against China’s claims in the South China Sea back in 2016. The stakes are high: The South China Sea sees the movement of up to 64 percent of global maritime trade and contains 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
However, China also realizes the potential of this conflict escalating into a full-blown war with the United States, especially with the Philippines, another claimant state, having a mutual defense treaty with the superpower. As a result, China has resorted to what some scholars have called a gray zone strategy to assert its claim in the South China Sea. Beijing hopes that it can push its Southeast Asian neighbors to back off by realizing that they can not win in a fight with China while at the same time keeping the risk of potential U.S. intervention at bay.
Indonesia claims that it is not a claimant state in the South China Sea dispute, which is true in the sense that Jakarta does not claim any maritime features that China also asserts ownership over. However, the southernmost part of the ten-dash (formerly nine-dash) line that China uses to assert its claim overlaps with Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) just north of the Natuna Islands, a body of water that the Indonesians called the North Natuna Sea. As a result, Indonesia’s fishermen often encounter a myriad of Chinese vessels, from China’s maritime militias and China Coast Guard (CCG) to Chinese survey vessels and warships in the North Natuna Sea.
https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/gray-hulls-in-the-gray-zone-indonesias-conundrum-in-the-south-china-sea/
