March 08, 2024
El Nino's Collapse Has Begun
The entire character of this winter has been characterized by a strong El Nino.
El Nino impacts have included low snowpack over Washington State, huge snowpack and heavy precipitation over California, and warm temperatures over the Upper Plains states.
However, El Nino's days are numbered and its decline is proceeding rapidly right now.
First, consider the critical measure of El Nino: the sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific (the Nino 3.4 area). The warmth of this El Nino peaked in late November (about 2.1°C above normal) and is now declining fairly rapidly (currently at roughly 1.3°C above normal).
But the cooling is really more dramatic than that: a LOT of cooling has been happening beneath the surface!
To demonstrate this, take a look at subsurface temperatures (the difference from normal) for the lowest 300 m under the surface for a vertical cross-section across the Pacific (below).
On 8 January, there was a substantial warm layer extending about 100 m beneath the surface.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/03/el-ninos-collapse-has-begun.html
