Climate Model Bias 3: Solar Input
17 hours ago Andy May 106 Comments
By Andy May
In part 2 we discussed the IPCC hypothesis of climate change that assumes humans and our greenhouse gas emissions and land use choices are the climate change “control knob.”[1] This hypothesis underpins their attempts to model Earth’s climate. But the model output fails to match many critical observations and in some cases the model/observation mismatches are getting worse with time.[2] Since these mismatches have persisted through six major iterations of the models, it is reasonable to assume the flaw is in the assumptions, that is within the hypothesis itself, as opposed to being in the model construction. In other words, it is likely the IPCC conceptual model should be scrapped, and a new one using different assumptions constructed. In this post we examine their underlying assumption that the Sun has not varied significantly, at least from a climate perspective, over the past 150-170 years.
As well-explained by Bob Irvine,[3] there are only two things that contribute to the thermal energy content of a planet, the amount of incoming energy and the energy residence time within the system. These two things, along with the climate system heat capacity, determine the surface temperature. Arrhenius assumed and the IPCC still assumes the Sun delivers a nearly constant amount of energy to Earth over periods of a few hundred years, constant enough that it has no impact on our climate. In addition, they work with annual averages to avoid seasonal and orbital changes. In AR6, the base period is 1750 to 2019. The IPCC assumes the Sun is invariant, at least on an annual basis, over this period and volcanic activity is just slightly negative, as shown in figure 2.[4] AR6 summarizes their views as follows:
“Changes in solar and volcanic activity are assessed to have together contributed a small change of –0.02 [–0.06 to +0.02] °C since 1750 (medium confidence).”
AR6 p. 962.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/03/03/climate-model-bias-3-solar-input/
