Andrew A. Michta
A Wake-Up Call for America, Too
Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel is part of an unfolding great-power conflict.
/ Eye on the News / Politics and law, The Social Order
Oct 10 2023
Israel’s strong and justified response to a massive Hamas rocket assault and military intrusion on its territory is underway—and the fighting could develop into a larger regional conflict. Coming at a time when foreign policy debate in Washington is consumed with the question of whether the United States should focus on the Indo-Pacific or continue its support for Ukraine, the Hamas attack should perhaps also have been expected. The deepening conflict between the world’s democracies, led by the United States, and the de facto Russian-Chinese-Iranian alliance made what is now happening in the Middle East not only possible, but likely.
The attack on Israel relates to the unfolding war in Ukraine and a brewing regional war in the Indo-Pacific. An incursion on this scale could not have happened without strong external support, both in the supply of weapons and munitions and in the promise of political backing down the line. Irrespective of whether and to what extent the Hamas assault was facilitated by Iran and Russia (the Russian minister of defense visited Iran only a few weeks ago)—and possibly even sanctioned by China—it is in the interest of this trio of dictatorships to widen the theater at a time when the high-intensity, state-on-state war in Ukraine has already significantly drained Western stockpiles of weapons and munitions, as well as of resolve. The Hamas massacre raises several questions that the United States and its allies must address as soon as possible.
The first question concerns the scope of the attack. Volley after volley of rockets at times overwhelmed Israel’s air and missile defenses this weekend. This shows that mass drone and missile strikes will not be confined to the Ukraine war: mass and saturation attacks can overpower the most sophisticated defenses. This reality should figure prominently in any Western debate about force structure and posture going forward. Simply put, mass—both in terms of the fielded systems and the stocks available to replenish them—remains key, notwithstanding the advantages stemming from precision that the United States and some of its allies enjoy.
https://www.city-journal.org/article/a-wake-up-call-for-america-too
