Keith B. Payne, Multilateral Deterrence: What’s New and Why it Matters, No. 522, May 16, 2022
Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus and former Department Head of the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
Deterrence theorists, policy makers, and commentators are now eagerly discussing “trilateral deterrence.” This, of course, refers to the simultaneous deterrence engagement of three great nuclear powers, the United States, Russia and China.
This brief review of deterrence in new global conditions is divided into two parts: The first identifies some inconvenient truths about what we can know about the functioning of deterrence; the second begins a discussion of why new multilateral deterrence conditions have implications for U.S. deterrence strategies and best practice. It is commonplace to assert that trilateral deterrence is different and must affect U.S. deterrence policy—explaining why and how that is true is not commonplace, but it is important to start.
Inconvenient Truths About Deterrence Prognostication
First, some inconvenient truths. Discussions about how changes in the structure of international relations will affect the functioning of deterrence can be interesting and more or less informed, but it is important to acknowledge that no one can be high on the learning curve regarding the functioning of deterrence in a new trilateral (or more, multilateral) deterrence dynamic.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/05/17/multilateral_deterrence_whats_new_and_why_it_matters_832654.html
