International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 2021; 5(2): 29-40
http://www.sciencepublishinggroup.com/j/ijaos doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
ISSN: 2640-1142 (Print); ISSN: 2640-1150 (Online)
The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on
Equilibrium Earth Temperatures
David Coe1, *, Walter Fabinski2, Gerhard Wiegleb3
*Corresponding author
To cite this article: David Coe, Walter Fabinski, Gerhard Wiegleb. The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures.
International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Vol. 5, No. 2, 2021, pp. 29-40. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
Received: August 2, 2021; Accepted: August 11, 2021; Published: August 23, 2021
Abstract: It has long been accepted that the “greenhouse effect”, where the atmosphere readily transmits short wavelength
incoming solar radiation but selectively absorbs long wavelength outgoing radiation emitted by the earth, is responsible for
warming the earth from the 255K effective earth temperature, without atmospheric warming, to the current average temperature
of 288K. It is also widely accepted that the two main atmospheric greenhouse gases are H2O and CO2. What is surprising is the
wide variation in the estimated warming potential of CO2, the gas held responsible for the modern concept of climate change.
Estimates published by the IPCC for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentration vary from 1.5 to 4.5°C based upon a
plethora of scientific papers attempting to analyse the complexities of atmospheric thermodynamics to determine their results.
The aim of this paper is to simplify the method of achieving a figure for climate sensitivity not only for CO2, but also CH4 and
N2O, which are also considered to be strong greenhouse gases, by determining just how atmospheric absorption has resulted in
the current 33K warming and then extrapolating that result to calculate the expected warming due to future increases of
greenhouse gas concentrations. The HITRAN database of gaseous absorption spectra enables the absorption of earth radiation at
its current temperature of 288K to be accurately determined for each individual atmospheric constituent and also for the
combined absorption of the atmosphere as a whole. From this data it is concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K
warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3K. Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2
concentration is calculated to be 0.50K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and
N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K respectively. This result strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not
lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little discernable impact.
Keywords: Carbon Dioxide, Climate Sensitivity, Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change
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