Why Is It So Tough to Withdraw from Afghanistan?
Ryan Baker and Jonathan Schroden
April 8, 2021
Twice in the past three weeks, President Joe Biden has commented publicly on how difficult it would be to withdraw all U.S. non-diplomatic personnel from Afghanistan by the deadline stipulated in the U.S.-Taliban agreement. “It’s going to be hard to meet the May 1 deadline,†he said in his first press conference, “just in terms of tactical reasons, it’s hard to get those troops out.†While the sheer duration of U.S. combat operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere illustrates how politically difficult it is for the White House to completely disengage from U.S. counter-terrorism efforts overseas, in this case the president’s comments were referring to how tough it would be to do so logistically. But why are the logistics so hard? What are the “tactical reasons†Biden refers to?
Large military withdrawals are complex operations — especially those that require a complete drawdown of troops and equipment in theater. The mechanics of withdrawing troops and their equipment through an insecure environment, transferring or destroying excess matériel and facilities, and then transporting everything else out of theater requires time and effort to do in an orderly way. In Afghanistan, the process is further complicated by geographic, diplomatic, and legal constraints. The United States could withdraw its forces over the next few weeks, but it would be difficult and enormously costly. It would almost certainly require pulling transportation and logistical resources away from other missions around the world, abandoning a bunch of perfectly good equipment in Afghanistan, signing expensive contracts for quick-turn transportation capacity, leaving allied and partner forces in Afghanistan twisting in the wind, and potentially increasing the risk to U.S. troops on the ground during the withdrawal. If the United States is unwilling to pay these costs — and it appears Biden is unwilling — it will likely need some number of months, not weeks, to complete a full withdrawal from Afghanistan.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/04/why-is-it-so-tough-to-withdraw-from-afghanistan/