Where are the deaths? Ten reasons the first and second Covid waves look so different

[Elderberry]

JoNova 10/23/2020

Where are the deaths? Ten reasons the first and second Covid waves look so different

In Europe the second wave is setting new records for daily cases but not for deaths so far (thankfully). So the big question is whether this will stay the same or follow the case tally up.

It’s probably not an accident that infections are spreading fast in mid October. Not only was it late summer in Europe, but the virus has been spreading mostly through 15 to 24 year old healthy young people and when Vitamin D levels were high. But as the Northern Hemisphere tracks away from the Sun, vitamin D levels are falling, temperatures are dropping, and the sterilizing rays of ultra violet grow weak. And, as the days grow colder people gather indoors too. Viral doses are rising.

The enduring scandal of the epidemic is that there are so many ways to treat this virus but they’re not expensive enough for the TGA to recommend them. ;- )

Lots more cases but not many deaths

Exhibit One: The United Kingdom

Some people have used this graph to claim the virus poses no threat. But it isn’t that simple.



Ten reasons death rates were lower in Europe’s second wave:

So much has changed. It will take whole PhDs to unpack the factors.

1.   Demographics: In the second wave young people are the most likely to be infected, not high risk older folk (so far).
2.   Vitamin D : reaches a peak each year in August and Sept.
3.   Masks: Many people were wearing masks — meaning a lower viral dose and they are more likely to get an asymptomatic infection.
4.   Doctors have better treatment plans.
5.   Hospitals are not overrun (yet).
6.   Temperatures were warmer: Viruses are unstable chemical codes.  As a rule, higher doses of virus will almost always survive longer in cooler air and on cooler surfaces.  As temperatures cool, we’d expect higher doses to be transmitted which means a more severe illness.
7.   Social distancing: Bigger distances and outdoor events mean lower viral doses. But as the seasons cool, we spend more time indoors, which means higher doses as they get closer together.
8.   UV light was stronger — A great outdoor sterilizer. UV also helps create Vitamin D. Obviously, it’s a summer time thing.
9.   More testing in the second wave. Germany is doing 3 times as many tests; France, seven times, and the UK is doing 15 times as many tests now as it was in early April. A lot of the first wave caseload was simply missed. There is roughly a three week lag from tests until mortality (and it can be up to 8 weeks). This wasn’t apparent in many countries in the first wave because they didn’t do enough testing to show the true extent of infections — they missed the entire first peak, only starting to record new daily cases numbers properly as the deaths also peaked.
10.   Mutations? Perhaps the virus has changed to be less deadly. This — our favourite option — the one we all want, may be true, but there is no genetic analysis that supports it yet so who knows?. If it is the case, we ought find a reliable genetic shift that correlates with lower viral loads and healthier patients. But natural selection favours a higher viral load and a more easily spread virus, and that’s what the few mutation studies seem to suggest.

More: http://joannenova.com.au/2020/10/where-are-the-deaths-ten-reasons-the-first-and-second-covid-waves-look-so-different/

[PeteS in CA]

4.   Doctors have better treatment plans.

There are, I think, two sides to this "coin". The first is that much has been learned about treating nCov-19 since the first wave in March/April. Learning is good, but how much less awful might March and April have been had China: 1. told the world about Wuhan in mid-December instead of keeping silent until word leaked out on December 31; 2. been open about cases/ deaths stats and things learned in treating those patients; 3. shared with the world the virus' DNA sequence in the first days of January instead of that info being leaked 8 or 10 days later; 4. been honest to the world in mid-late December that there was evidence of human-human transmission instead of denying it for a month.

Whatever the motivation(s), those withholdings of information and dishonesties delayed, distorted, and hobbled the world's responses to nCov-19 and Covid-19. The "lessons" were re-learned at the cost of people's lives.

The second side to the coin is the what of what has been learned. Existing meds and techniques have been brought to bear in treating Covid-19 patients, and new treatments have been developed. These are all likely to contribute to second waves being less deadly.