Should markets expect a recession? Every Republican since Teddy Roosevelt has had one in their first term .........Since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, who left office in 1909, every single Republican president has seen a recession take hold in their first term.
While analysts consider this a fluke of timing more than an explicit economic reaction to Republican policies, the odds of this streak continuing during the presidency of Donald Trump are seen as plausible, particularly as he presides over what is already the second-longest bull market in history.
“Republican presidents seeing recessions has more to do with cycles — both political and economic — than policy,†said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of U.S. equity strategy at CFRA. “Most economic cycles last five to six years, presidential terms are four years, and you usually don’t see more than two straight terms of the same party. Right now we’re already late in an economic cycle that’s already much longer than average ones.â€
In an April interview with MarketWatch, Stovall noted that bull markets don’t die of old age, but because of worsening economic conditions. However, he sees signs the economy may have already peaked, prompting him to forecast a recession at some point in Trump’s term. He added, “By the way, that’s not a brave forecast.â€
The first year of the Trump administration was a positive one for the U.S. stock market by almost any metric. There was historic low volatility, a record number of records, and an unprecedented length of time that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.54% went without falling 5% or even 3% from record levels. The gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.56% over Trump’s first year were the best for any president since Franklin Roosevelt.....
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-markets-expect-a-recession-every-republican-since-teddy-roosevelt-has-had-one-in-their-first-term-2018-05-02
