By Scott Wong and Mike Lillis - 08/17/16 06:00 AM EDT
LAS VEGAS — Democrats scrambling to tie House Republicans to Donald Trump's embattled campaign like what they see in freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy.
The plain-spoken, 59-year-old Nevadan is the rare House Republican who’s given the divisive, controversial GOP nominee a full-throated endorsement — and now appears to be paying the price.
Nevada’s sprawling 4th Congressional District, which incorporates parts of Sin City, the north Vegas suburbs and rural areas running up to Reno, and is heavily comprised of African American, Mexican American, Mormon and suburban voters — all groups which Trump has alienated or struggled to win over.
On top of that, President Obama crushed Mitt Romney in the district by a double-digit margin in 2012, and top election prognosticators have put Hardy’s seat in the “Leans Democratic” column.
Democrats believe they have a strong candidate in state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, a 36-year-old Mexican American immigrant and former aide to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).
The problem for Democrats is that they need more candidates like Kihuen. And perhaps more Republicans willing to run side-by-side with Trump like Hardy.
Trump's combative campaign is hurting Republicans down the ballot –– but not enough to flip control of the House in November.
The House advantage has shifted steadily in favor of the Democrats since Trump won the GOP nomination, in the eyes of leading election handicappers.
Yet the Democrats still appear far short of flipping the 30 seats they'd need to win back the lower chamber. (The GOP’s 247 seats represents the party’s largest majority since before the Great Depression).
“In the House, I have yet to see evidence that Republicans are tanking as a result of Trump being on the ballot,” said David Wasserman, an expert on House races at the Cook Political Report.
Election analysts emphasize that a wave election delivering power back to the Democrats remains possible. But Wasserman put the odds at only between 10 and 20 percent, and predicts Democrats will pick up between 10 and 20 House seats –– far shy of the 30 needed to win back control.
more
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/291634-trump-hurts-gop-but-probably-not-enough-to-flip-house
