http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/275697-the-gop-delegate-battle-explained By Niall Stanage - 04/10/16 06:00 AM EDT
As the Republican presidential race moves toward its closing stages, more and more attention is being focused on the race for delegates.
It is that contest that will decide whether front-runner Donald Trump can become the GOP nominee or whether someone else — his closest rival Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) or perhaps some compromise candidate who has not participated in the primaries — can wrest the prize away from him.
Many elements of the delegate race are complex and confusing. Here, we try to answer the most frequently asked questions.
What are the basics?
There are expected to be 2,472 delegates to the Republican National Convention, which will be held in Cleveland from July 18-21. Their votes will decide who becomes the GOP’s presidential nominee. That means the support of 1,237 delegates is needed in order to win the nomination.
Where do things stand right now?
According to the Associated Press’s delegate tracker, businessman Donald Trump has 743 delegates, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) has 532 delegates and Ohio Gov. John Kasich has 143 delegates. They are the only major candidates still in the race.
However, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), who suspended his campaign last month, has 171 delegates — more of which later.
So what does that all mean?
Trump is the only candidate with a legitimate shot at reaching the magic number of 1,237 by the time the final Republican primaries are held on June 7. For him, reaching that goal is tough but plausible. He would need to win well over 60 percent of the 769 delegates who are still up for grabs in the contests that remain.
What happens if he fails?
Fun for the news media and armchair pundits; chaos and tension for Republicans. The candidates would arrive at the convention with the identity of the nominee in doubt for the first time since 1976. On that occasion, incumbent President Gerald Ford held off a challenge from Ronald Reagan and his supporters.
So…?
The theory is simple enough at the outset. The delegates will vote. If no one has an outright majority on the first ballot, there will then be a second ballot and, if necessary a third, a fourth and so on, until someone wins a majority.
Couldn't that go on forever?
In 1924, Democrats selected John W. Davis as their standard-bearer — on the 103rd ballot. They went to all that trouble in vain, too: Davis lost to Calvin Coolidge in the general election.
But seriously, how will it end?
No one really knows. But one key distinction is whether delegates are bound or unbound.
Explain.
Although we say that each candidate “has won” a certain number of delegates, that’s actually a generalization. They don’t necessarily belong to the candidate. They may not even, on a personal level, like the candidate. They tend to be local organizers and party loyalists who earn their ticket to Cleveland via winning local, county and state-level elections. Since most modern conventions have simply served to rubber-stump clear verdicts delivered by the voters in primaries, the issue of the delegates’ personal preferences has been largely irrelevant. This year, it isn’t — unless Trump reaches 1,237 of course.
But the bound and unbound thing…?
At the first ballot, around 95 percent of the delegates will be “bound.” That means they are obligated to vote for the candidate to whom their support has been allotted via the results of the primary or caucus in their state. Trump is virtually assured of winning a strong plurality on that first ballot. But, assuming he fails to win an outright majority, he could be in a much weaker position on subsequent ballots.
Why?
Because in many states, delegates are bound only for the first ballot. By some estimates, the proportion of total delegates falls from about 95 percent on the first ballot to 25 percent on the second ballot. And that process continues. California’s delegates, for example, are bound for the first two ballots but are then free to vote as they please. In the winner-take-all state of Florida, its 99 delegates are bound to the primary winner — Trump — for the first three ballots.
But will delegates who become unbound always change their minds?
No. A delegate originally bound to support Trump or Cruz could stick with him till the bitter end. And that’s why the campaigns are now furiously trying to make sure that as many genuine supporters as possible get chosen at state conventions as delegates. If the delegate genuinely supports the candidate to whom he or she is bound, then them being unbound will make no difference.
Conversely, though, once delegates are unbound, they could just throw Trump overboard and vote for someone else?
Theoretically, yes. But whether such a move is truly feasible is a more difficult question. Let’s assume Trump gets around 1,200 delegates but falls short of 1,237. He would no doubt claim to be the moral victor of the primary process, and he would have a strong case. In that kind of scenario, many experts think it is more likely that enough delegates would back Trump to put him over the top, rather than risk a potentially chaotic multi-ballot fight — and the danger of being seen as thwarting the will of voters.
So Trump needs to make the case that he’s the obvious winner. How does Cruz overcome that?
Partly by asserting that Trump would be a catastrophic choice as the nominee in the general election. Cruz is also running a well-organized operation to get as many true supporters as possible elected as delegates. He has enjoyed some success this week in Colorado, for example. Basically, Colorado elects delegates directly, not through a binding primary or caucus. Those delegates are technically unbound so the more actual supporters a candidate can get elected, the better for them.
What about those Rubio delegates? They could be crucial, couldn’t they?
Yes, they could. And what happens to them varies from state to state. There is considerable confusion about their status. In some states, delegates won by a candidate who has suspended his campaign are regarded as unbound. Rubio has written to some state Republican parties asking that his delegates not be released. But, although Rubio could recommend that his delegates back someone else, there would be no real obligation on them to do so.
Anything else?
Yes. All the rules could get changed before the convention starts, making everything you’ve just read irrelevant.
What?
The rules for each convention are ultimately decided at the convention itself. In 2012, for example, a rule was passed stating that a candidate could only have their name placed in nomination if they had won a majority of the delegates in eight or more states. At the time, this was widely seen as an effort to thwart possible machinations from supporters of then-Rep. Ron Paul (Texas). But the rule — Rule 40 — is a leading contender to be changed, since it would seem to limit the number of alternatives to Trump who could be put forward. Right now, no one else would qualify, although Cruz might well get across the threshold by the time the primaries end.
But all of the rules could be changed?
Technically, yes. For example, the rules could be changed to enable delegates to immediately unbind themselves. This isn’t so outlandish as it sounds — on the other side of the partisan divide, supporters of then-Sen. Edward Kennedy tried this maneuver in 1980, aiming to oust sitting President Jimmy Carter as the Democratic nominee. The Kennedy effort failed, however, and any similar effort would be hugely controversial among Republicans this year. Trump has already predicted there could be riots if he fails to win the nomination.
