Climate Change Will Not Be Dangerous for a Long Time

[Machiavelli]

Matt Ridley
Scientific American
November 27, 2015

Slower warming than predicted gives the world time to develop better energy technologies

The climate change debate has been polarized into a simple dichotomy. Either global warming is "real, man-made and dangerous," as Pres. Barack Obama thinks, or it's a "hoax," as Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe thinks. But there is a third possibility: that it is real, man-made and not dangerous, at least not for a long time.

This "lukewarm" option has been boosted by recent climate research, and if it is right, current policies may do more harm than good. For example, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and other bodies agree that the rush to grow biofuels, justified as a decarbonization measure, has raised food prices and contributed to rainforest destruction.

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[massadvj]

Great article today in the WSJ on this very subject:

http://www.wsj.com/article_email/your-complete-guide-to-the-climate-debate-1448656890-lMyQjAxMTI1MjI5ODcyNzg0Wj

From the article:

"Perhaps it is the predictions that worry the world leaders. Here, we are often told by journalists that the science is “settled” and there is no debate. But scientists disagree: They say there is great uncertainty, and they reflected this uncertainty in their fifth and latest assessment for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It projects that temperatures are likely to be anything from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer by the latter part of the century—that is, anything from mildly beneficial to significantly harmful.

"As for the impact of that future warming, a new study by a leading climate economist, Richard Tol of the University of Sussex, concludes that warming may well bring gains, because carbon dioxide causes crops and wild ecosystems to grow greener and more drought-resistant. In the long run, the negatives may outweigh these benefits, says Mr. Tol, but “the impact of climate change does not significantly deviate from zero until 3.5°C warming.”

"Mr. Tol’s study summarizes the effect we are to expect during this century: “The welfare change caused by climate change is equivalent to the welfare change caused by an income change of a few percent. That is, a century of climate change is about as good/bad for welfare as a year of economic growth. Statements that climate change is the biggest problem of humankind are unfounded: We can readily think of bigger problems.”

[Bigun]

Does anyone really know if there is any global warming much less any of the man made kind?

[massadvj]

Does anyone really know if there is any global warming much less any of the man made kind?

From the same WSJ article:

"(temperatures) have gone up only very slowly, less than half as fast as the scientific consensus predicted in 1990 when the global-warming scare began in earnest. Even with this year’s El Niño-boosted warmth threatening to break records, the world is barely half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than it was about 35 years ago. Also, it is increasingly clear that the planet was significantly warmer than today several times during the past 10,000 years."

[Bigun]

From the same WSJ article:

"(temperatures) have gone up only very slowly, less than half as fast as the scientific consensus predicted in 1990 when the global-warming scare began in earnest. Even with this year’s El Niño-boosted warmth threatening to break records, the world is barely half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than it was about 35 years ago. Also, it is increasingly clear that the planet was significantly warmer than today several times during the past 10,000 years."

The correct answer to my question is a simple No! They do not!

[massadvj]

The correct answer to my question is a simple No! They do not!

Ah, but Grasshopper, I am an academic.  Why give you a simple answer when a much more complex one will confuse people more and assure my continued employment?

[Bigun]

Ah, but Grasshopper, I am an academic.  Why give you a simple answer when a much more complex one will confuse people more and assure my continued employment?

  Point taken!

[jmyrlefuller]

Does anyone really know if there is any global warming much less any of the man made kind?

What my esteemed colleague massadvj said, except shorter: yes, but not nearly as much as they claim and what is to blame is purely speculative.

[Bigun]

What my esteemed colleague massadvj said, except shorter: yes, but not nearly as much as they claim and what is to blame is purely speculative.

And they know that based on exactly what?  A data set that represents .oooooo1% of the life of this planet?  They don't KNOW squat!

[truth_seeker]

Does anyone really know if there is any global warming much less any of the man made kind?

Yes absolutely the planet has warmed, then cooled, then warmed through history, and mostly predated human life.

During those non-human timeframes, oceans rose and shorelines changed widely.

What is missing is solid evidence that mankind has had a significant impact. The proof is not there.

Sunspot activity is probably a better explanation over history, than a few decades of internal combustion engines and fossil fuel burning electric power plants.

In the truly big picture, it would be highly pretentious to assume mankind could hold back a rising sea level to any meaningful extent.

It would be wise to investigate Holland and similar locations, for short term adaptations and measures.

[Oceander]

Yes absolutely the planet has warmed, then cooled, then warmed through history, and mostly predated human life.

During those non-human timeframes, oceans rose and shorelines changed widely.

What is missing is solid evidence that mankind has had a significant impact. The proof is not there.

Sunspot activity is probably a better explanation over history, than a few decades of internal combustion engines and fossil fuel burning electric power plants.

In the truly big picture, it would be highly pretentious to assume mankind could hold back a rising sea level to any meaningful extent.

It would be wise to investigate Holland and similar locations, for short term adaptations and measures.

Spot on.