I stayed away from gold/silver. If we really do have a SHTF situation, people want food and shelter not gold. It just seems to me that a few acres of land with some sort of shelter and equipment to work it would be better with maybe a stash of some trade goods.
just my 2 cents..
Figure, I'll start the proceedings with a general analysis .....
Not knowing everyone's exact situation, I really don't like to give specifics on investment choices. I haven't batted 1.000 in these 40 years, and would hate for someone to lose money on what i may think is a good play. What may be a good choice for a 64 year old retiree may not be the same for someone else.
In any casem here is some general advise that has served me well through the years and during '87, '00, '08, and now.......
1. Priority 1 should be eliminating or reducing debt. I view debt payments by default as negative income.
2. Competitively bid all aspects of your expenses. Get the utmost value down to the penny for everything you buy, or services you secure. Over years and years, you would be surprised how much this adds to your net worth balance sheet.
3. Keep your investment portfolio that is intended toward goals... i.e retirement as an example, in strong conservative investments. When you have those bases covered, then you can look at speculative plays.
4. I invested zero in the dot coms in the '90's. My father gave me the best advise of all in that era.. "Why would you ever invest in anything that by default does not make money?" To me that rules still applies today.
5. I have found that the simple rule of putting 100 minus your age in equities has worked pretty well for me. Maybe not for everyone, but........
6. Research and "like". When investing, I tend to get into stocks which I think have good products that I like. Before getting in I research it to death too. A Low P/E is often a good indicator. Furthermore, is there a long term demand for the product?
7. The best time often to invest is when everyone is rushing out the door. The is the toughest part, but finding a price bottom, is golden toward finding long term return.
8. Monitor investments and net worth monthly. Research, evaluate, and adjust as needed.
9. Don't fall in love with a stock/fund/etc. so much that you resist selling when the fruit is ripe. Don't forget that your favorite stock is not a family member.
10. Never forget that a SHTF scenario is always a possibility. Remote, but still there. Have a base amount of investments that will address. Metals, Land, etc.
11. Formulate and adhere to three different budget scenarios... (1) Regular (2) Austerity (3) Emergency.
Just my philosphy, what sez other Briefers..
My wife and I are at an age now where preserving what we have has become more of a priority than it was twenty years ago and that task is becoming increasingly difficult given the current state of our country's "leadership".
In ever significant downturn retirees and the elderly do suffer the most on the balance sheet, for the simple reason that the elderly have to invest conservatively which systematically hurts gains, and ROI. They just can't risk their capital base.
This is one of the biggest quandaries of all, and really the only rememdy is making sure you overshoot your goals for minimum needs.
Even with that I am at about 5X that base capital need and returns right now, and I still don't feel safe with Pedo Joe and his clown car running the economic show. I hope other Briefers have suggestions. Most fixed income instrument are in negative territory with Bidenflation, and that does not look like it is going to relent..... anytime soon.
But one i used to tell people who ask me how to reach retirement goals...... I said "Save until it hurts, then keep hurting till you feel your goals and needs are met with plenty of room to spare."
As an example of keeping diversification in mind, my oil stocks have hit ridiculously high levels and I had to sell off some Chevron stock to keep it from being too much of my portfolio.
The good news is I made a lot of profit per share (over $100).
The bad news is I will be paying a lot in taxes next year.
I also have to find a replacement stock to buy which pays lucrative and reliable dividends.
It is a good problem to have compared to the alternative in reverse.
happy77 happy77 happy77You and I think a lot alike.
Couple of suggestions to relieve that pain.... happy77
* See if any of the provisions of "NUA" Net Unrealized Appreciation principles apply to distribution.
* If it was a partial distribution, don't forget "Last In-First Out" aspects of enumerating the capital gains.
* I hate paying capital gains taxes, and when I do have a big gain, I always make a point to make sure to drop the dogs off the portfolio in tandem. The freaking $3K loss carry over limit is bullshit.
Investing is like going to the dog track ... only play with money you can afford to lose.
I evaluate investments based upon will I be able to sleep at night.
Money and financial insecurity are deeply emotional issues that manfiest themselves as risk tolerance.
Everyone has a different opinion about investing. There is no such thing as consensus, right, or wrong. You need to be at peace with your investments and undertstand what you are investing in.
Growing up, my family was house rich and cash poor - they bought the house in 1975, never took a second mortgage. So when I applied to college in 1988/1989 they counted my parents' net equity in our primary residence against my financial aid eligibility.
My parents did what they were taught were the right things ... stayed married, worked hard, stayed out of debt, provided their kids with better lives and more opportunities than they had.
Only problem, the college financial aid criteria rewarded debt and penalized equity. What my Canadian neighbors met with a financial aid consultant who had them mortgage 80% of their primary residence equity, which they used to buy a vacation home in the Lakes Region of New Hampshire. On paper, the Canadian neighbors had less equity in their primary residence, thus, they qualified for more financial aid.
At times, the system is not fair - it may penalize what you believe to be right and may reward what you believe to be wrong.
In our current tax regime, earned income is penalized, long-term capital gains are rewarded, and saving money is more tax efficient than increased earned income.
If you believe that all you need to do to succeed is work hard and save, you are setting yourself up for failure. Government makes the rules, but they also change the rules, sometimes during the game when it benefits them.
Part of my uncle's retirement plan was to buy EE US Savings Bonds. At the time he bought them, they carried fixed rates and could be rolled over into HH US Bonds tax free - not having to pay capital gains tax on the EE Bonds. My uncle was an accountant. He read the IRS tax code for leisure. As he neared the point of the EE Bonds' maturities, the Federal Government changed the rules - EE Bonds could no longer be rolled into HH Bonds taxfree, and the HH Bonds would pay a variable rate, not a fixed rate, during a time when intertest rates were on a multi-decades long downward trend. Unforunately, this was his main retirement plan outside any penions or Social Security. He put too many eggs in one basket. His plan didn't work as expected because rules and market conditiions had changed.
Nature manages risk by diversification. That's a personal investing principle that I choose to heed. Not only diversifying investments, but also diversifying asset classes, investment vehicles, and financial institutions. I am highly financially insecure and untrusting. I want to diversify - spread - my investments across mulitple institutions, multiple different account types, and multiple asset classes. This helps me sleep at night - I know that if my ship sinks, I will not be alone, I will have much company.
Money can ebb and flow like the tides. My father's maternal grandparents were very wealthy. A combination of events changed the financial trajectories of their descendants. My great grandfather lost much money in the Great Stock Crash of 1929, and he committed suicide. My great grandmother was psychiatrically committed. Her family stole the money meant her young daughters (my grandmother, my father's mother). My grandmother grew up poor as a result. My father grew up poor. My father and his siblings grew up in a cold water flat and went hungry. One Winter, a pipe broke and they were able to skate on the dining room floor for much of the Winter. Well into his 70's and 80's, my uncle kept a pound of bologna and a pound of cheese in his regfrigerator, so he could sleep knowing he would not go hungry the next day.
Financial security is both a reality and an illusion. It's an illusion because believing it's real helps you sleep well at night. It's only real if you can access the money when you need it. When markets crash, liquidity become lacking - there are far more sellers than buyers and market makers may become overwhelmed - unable to fulfill transactions. I've seen this in 1987, 1991, 1998, 2000, 2001, and 2008. When you need cash the most, you may not be able to sell assets for cash - asset rich, cash poor.
2008 was by far the worst I've experienced in my lifetime. For the first time I can recall, money market funds "broke the buck". Money market funds were advertised as being safe vehicles without risk to principal. In 2008, for a brief time, money market funds lost principal value - "broke the buck".
In August 2008, as my wife and I were attempting to adopt, our Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) got pulled without warning. We lost the line of credit we were going to use to help pay some adoption expenses. To get cash in the bank, we had to take out a Home Equity Loan at 8%. The adoption fell through for various reasons. We used the remainder of the Home Equity Loan to buy new Honda Accords in January 2009 when the dealership was desperate for buyers. We paid off the home equity loan within 2 years.
Late 2008/early 2009, the Federal Government began picking winners and losers. They made up rules as they went along. They were voiding contracts without warning. They were changing rules as they needed to. Companies were forced to merge with companies that they didn't want; and later penalized for the liabilities assumed in the merger. If bankruptcy had been used to merge a "bad" bank with a "good" bank, the "good" bank would not have been fined billions of dollars for the "bad" bank's illegalities. Contracts were no longer sacrosanct. The Government would void or break them whenever they wanted. Financial market norms were no longer in effect.
After 2008, I modified my relationship with money and investments. I valued principal preservation and liquidity over rate of return. Looking back, I realize this was an over-reaction that cost me potential gains. But I could live with that for a while and it helped me sleep well at night.
It's easy to be detached from your investments when you don't need cash. It doesn't take long to become consumed by anxiety when you need cash, but can't get any. These are the two opposite emotional emotional extremes that drive my relationship with money and investments, and manifest themselves as financial complacency or financial insecurity.
... I shall continue my post-2008 investment saga on another day.
In case anyone is looking into CD rates lately, they are starting to rise quite substantially in some cases. I just pulled a 1.65% 18 month CD rate from Ally.I see they spruced it up to 1.75% lately, with MM being 0.9%.
A secure savings plan in cash for short-term needs should be part of everyone's investment planning.
I've accelerated my mortgage principal paydown.
Reminds me of an old commodity trader I used to know when I asked him what his best tip was. His response:
Buy low, sell high.
OMG, Platinum is almost half the cost of gold.
I'm used to seeing platinum be more expensive than gold.
Is there some wierd precious metals market inversion at work?
CD rates are still less than inflation. It's still a net money loser after inflation and taxes.
I saw (see) it as a decent dip, and increased Au ownership. What is really strange about the fin news the past week, is it seems only the $USD is doing well, even to the point of sapping strength from the commodities market Even stranger are the dupes out there who think a Sovereign country that is $31T in debt, and has 129% Debt to GDP ratio, is a flight to financial safety. It's like Bizarro World.
These still good go lower, but they are bucking the technicals of what I feel are in place, even at a 3 year inflation adjusted low.
The US is like the smartest kid on the short bus right now. I wonder how long it will last if our economy deteriorates further.
I expect metals to explode at some point, and could see that expanding to land and other real goods investments.
Good observations. Everybody's $10000 question is how this thing unravels. If we see commodites start rocketing up, I am betting we are on the hyperinflation express.
The thing that really keeps coming up for me @catfish1957 is that economically we are in no mans land. The world economy has never been in this position before, and I couldn't possibly tell anyone how it might all go forward from here.
For example, while we have steep price increases in gas and food, the dollar has risen so much that import prices have dropped on many things, substantially in some cases. I think you'll see alot more of those kind of crosscurrents in the days ahead.
I think we all might end up getting whipsawed by it all.
Update on the precious metals dip.....
12 Jul 2022 10:10 cdt
Gold- $1728/oz.
Silver- $18.86/oz.
Platinum- $854/oz.
Lowest prices in 18 months. Taking account inflation, maybe the best price in nearly 3 years.
Shit!!!! Anyone else watching this?
14 Jul 2022 9:03 a.m. cat
Gold- $1699.30/oz
Silver- $18.13/oz
Platinum- $817.10/oz
This defies the fundementals...... And not what to expect in an inflationary economy.
Plus a economic, politcal storm brewing for the EU, thanks to Italy. Hang on to your hats. $USD now actually worth more than a EURO.
I see they spruced it up to 1.75% lately, with MM being 0.9%.Just raised again to 2.25%
At this rate, we will be back to Jimmy Carter days by year end.
CD rates are still less than inflation. It's still a net money loser after inflation and taxes.yes it is and is a terrible investment.
yes it is and is a terrible investment.
But holding some cash is wisdom in this volatile environment and bonds and stocks can be even bigger losers.
At time capital preservation can be more important than returns.
Cash is a (psychological and financial) hedge against uncertainty.
Not exactly an investment tip, but for those of us that watch the markets, is anyone else noticing the bump in stock indicies and at least some stabilzation of interest rates. Commodites too, have not only not spiked, but are seeming to ease.
Wall Street and its sentiment is by far the best barometer of how elections are going. Not wanting to get everyone's hopes too far up, but I think a GOP takeover of the house and senate is now baked into market performance and sentiment.
This pretty much cooks Pedo Joe's agenda the next few years,unlessuntil our resident RINOs. betray us.
In the short term, a Dem victory would be a windfall for energy companies - they'd be able to further maximize profits on existing long-term capital investments.Nice dip in Silver right now.... $20.35/ oz
I like to keep an eye on energy pipeline companies and refiners. Biden won't allow new ones to come online, so, the existing ones will only increase in value as the government-created energy supply deficit continues.I also recently bought some silver coins (2021 Royal British Mint 2oz Silver Bullion Queen's Beasts Completer 5lb coin) for neumistic reasons more than melt value:
(https://www.herobullion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2021-2-oz-British-Silver-Queens-Beast-Completer-Effigy-Angle-440x440.jpg)(https://www.herobullion.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2021-2-oz-British-Silver-Queens-Beast-Completer-Angle.jpg)
I was just enthralled with the quality and level of artisanship in the design.
Midyear outlook: Expect a bumpy ride before sailing gets smootherWells Fargo Advisors (https://lifescapes.wellsfargoadvisors.com/midyear-2023-bumpy-ride/?nlf&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wfal_wbspcg_external_personalized_july_2023)
... While it may be tempting for investors to let down their guard during the inevitable bear market rally, we continue to believe now is the time for investors to prepare for it by keeping their seatbelts fastened. By that, I mean we’re maintaining our guidance to remain defensive in portfolio positioning.
For help with determining what you may want to do with your portfolio to get ready for the coming months, I recommend reading our Midyear Outlook. It offers detailed guidance with a focus on the following four asset types.
Equities. Our view is that corporate revenue growth will stall in the remainder of 2023 as the economy likely falls into a moderate recession. Throw in fixed costs that take time for companies to reduce at a time of declining sales as well as stubborn input and wage costs, and we expect operating margins to continue declining toward pre-COVID-19 levels. We see these factors weighing on earnings in 2023 and early 2024, and our S&P 500 Index target ranges reflect that: 4,000 – 4,200 for year-end 2023 and 4,600 – 4,800 for year-end 2024.
We continue to prefer quality stocks and defensive sectors, and favor U.S. large-cap equities over mid- and small-caps. Playing defense at the sector level includes a preference for the Materials, Health Care, and Energy sectors.
Once the recession appears fully priced in to market valuations, we expect an opportunity to position for a 2024 recovery. Our 2024 targets anticipate that U.S. small-cap equities will outpace U.S. mid-cap equities, which in turn will outgain U.S. large-cap equities.
Fixed income. We believe the next 6 to 18 months will present fixed income with two distinct environments: recession and recovery. Against this backdrop, we favor a barbell strategy that emphasizes short term and long term. We envision positive returns for both taxable and municipal bonds through year-end.
Headwinds are rising in credit markets, and we prefer to focus on bond quality. We favor government securities, particularly U.S. Treasuries, and we believe that investment-grade corporates should retain strength. In contrast, we find high-yield securities to be currently overpriced and suggest caution given that spreads are set to widen further.
Real assets. We believe 2023 may see a short-term price pause before the resumption of a long-term commodity bull super-cycle (a multiyear period in which commodity prices climb together as a family). Even under the pressure of a global economic slowdown, we foresee modest upside for prices from current levels and stronger performance in 2024.
Our outlook for a weaker U.S. dollar should support gold and precious metals prices. We believe the bull super-cycle is very likely to produce performance across all sectors. ...
Investing is no different than any other form of gambling ... only play with money you can afford to lose. Any investment could go to $0 at any time.
This is a time when oversized entrenched monopolies, duopolies, and oligopolies have competitive advantage because of their sizes, capitalization, and access to credit.