The Briefing Room
General Category => Economy/Business => Topic started by: catfish1957 on May 27, 2020, 04:03:32 pm
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In the past few weeks, I have upped the chance of a "V"shaped recovery from about 30% to 60%. The past few months of recovery since the March 23rd bottom have been nothing short of remarkable. We still likely will have some rough sailing ahead, but I am getting more optimistic by the day:
Here is the tale of the tape
March 23. Now Result
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DJIA. 18,591 25,230. +35.7%
S&P 2,237 2,996. +26.4%
NASDQ. 6,860 9,340. +36.2%
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What a difference ten years makes
| | 2000 | Now | Result | Annual Rate of Return |
| DOW | 10,137 | 25,230 | +149% | 9.55% |
| S&P 500 | 1,089 | 2,996 | +175% | 10.65% |
| NASDAQ | 2,257 | 6,860 | + 204% | 11.76% |
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Respectfully, as TBR is an opinion site, all are entitled.
Yet the notion that the Covid recovery will be V shaped is light years beyond preposterous.
Ignoring China for the moment, this was an act of Nature and in all such events, be they
earthquakes, hurricanes/tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, plagues, floods, among many;
Man is reminded by Nature who is superior.
As a cequence, beyond the loss of life, his psyche is damaged, leaving a residue of fear
producing anxiety, pause and reflection.
Manipulating various numbers is nothing by an exercise in arithmetic; telling us nothing
as to how Man will behave and react once this plague subsides.
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Manipulating various numbers is nothing by an exercise in arithmetic; telling us nothing
Thanks for sharing
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Respectfully, as TBR is an opinion site, all are entitled.
Yet the notion that the Covid recovery will be V shaped is light years beyond preposterous.
Ignoring China for the moment, this was an act of Nature and in all such events, be they
earthquakes, hurricanes/tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, plagues, floods, among many;
Man is reminded by Nature who is superior.
As a cequence, beyond the loss of life, his psyche is damaged, leaving a residue of fear
producing anxiety, pause and reflection.
Manipulating various numbers is nothing by an exercise in arithmetic; telling us nothing
as to how Man will behave and react once this plague subsides.
Lot of flowery non-financial, non-technical, reasoning there saying why it won't be a "V" recovery. If you saw my orignal post, I said I am not 100% certain either. But I have been watching this stuff 40 years, and have done it long enough to watch how fundementals impact market movement. Calling an abrupt recovery preposterous, is tad out there to say the least.........
Base consumption numbers are spiking up, and that typically dominoes up the food chain. Then add the fact that the majority of investors are in for the lot haul. 30+ years. Yes, recent exuberance may be overstated, but one overiding fact remains..... If you box any 10 year period from the depression to today, there has beeb an increase in the DJIA. There is always anxiety in investing, but the years of burying or putting your nest egg in a matress is ancient history.
In fact your last sentence substantuates the fact, you have no idea where the market will go. Because, honestly....no one can predict the market past a few days anyway. It's just the nature of the beast, and subject as you stated to unforseen events.
Myself? 2 months ago, my money would have been on a "U", Now... I think it is the least likely. Watch for a "V", or if a second COVID-19 wave hits, a "W". Hey, but if an asteroid hits the earth......
I'd like to hear a little more on where you think the markets are trending. Sounds like you are a serious Bear.
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My prediction is that the DOW hits 30k by this time next year. Ten year numbers were provided as a reminder that there is a huge difference between investing and gambling. Stocks are for the long term. For anyone contributing to a 401(k), they will come out better over the course of a year with the huge dip (i.e. bargain prices for stocks) and corresponding increase than they would have with no dip at all.
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My prediction is that the DOW hits 30k by this time next year. Ten year numbers were provided as a reminder that there is a huge difference between investing and gambling. Stocks are for the long term. For anyone contributing to a 401(k), they will come out better over the course of a year with the huge dip (i.e. bargain prices for stocks) and corresponding increase than they would have with no dip at all.
Absolutlely. If I wouldn't have been retired, I'd done some serious movement into some oversold stocks late in March. Just didn't have the balls to put some high paying fixed income instruments at risk. :cool:
In fact, one of my kids sank about a 1/3 of his net worth at the dip. He's now one perpetual high-fiving fool.
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In fact, one of my kids sank about a 1/3 of his net worth at the dip. He's now one perpetual high-fiving fool.
That kid has a good dad.
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Myself? 2 months ago, my money would have been on a "U", Now... I think it is the least likely. Watch for a "V", or if a second COVID-19 wave hits, a "W". Hey, but if an asteroid hits the earth......
I think it will bounce pretty good and get a lot of air. It will look super on paper.
But they need to knock the chocks out for that to work, the problem being filling the pipeline. Similar in fashion to groceries right now.
I hit the powdered sugar lottery yesterday. Swiped up three bags while it was there... I've been out and looking for months. That's ridiculous, right?
Same thing goes for industry. Until it's all up and running, it will be plagued by shortages, predictably. If the factories and warehouses in big liberal cities are still idling, that will effect supply across the board. It is a bother.
Even here. Everything comes through Billings, Missoula, or Spokane - all the effective hot-spots in the area. What that does to delivery up in here is notable.
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That kid has a good dad.
Wow, thanks Hoodat. I am proud that they all are investor savvy, and understand the value of a $,
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Same thing goes for industry. Until it's all up and running, it will be plagued by shortages, predictably. If the factories and warehouses in big liberal cities are still idling, that will effect supply across the board. It is a bother.
Even here. Everything comes through Billings, Missoula, or Spokane - all the effective hot-spots in the area. What that does to delivery up in here is notable.
It has really been strange on how certain items become short, and some plentiful. Early on it was TP. Now no problem. 2 or 3 weeks ago, I couldn't score a bag of shredded cheese within 25 miles. Now, (and expected), its hamburger. As the shutdown wanes, I expect fewer and fewer supply chain disruptions. I happy to go on record to say, that the attempt of the dims to shutdown the American economy for political gain, is not only going to fail, but might backfire mightily
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It has really been strange on how certain items become short, and some plentiful. Early on it was TP. Now no problem. 2 or 3 weeks ago, I couldn't score a bag of shredded cheese within 25 miles. Now, (and expected), its hamburger. As the shutdown wanes, I expect fewer and fewer supply chain disruptions. I happy to go on record to say, that the attempt of the dims to shutdown the American economy for political gain, is not only going to fail, but might backfire mightily
People are not appreciating the trial period of Socialism.
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It has really been strange on how certain items become short, and some plentiful. Early on it was TP. Now no problem. 2 or 3 weeks ago, I couldn't score a bag of shredded cheese within 25 miles. Now, (and expected), its hamburger. As the shutdown wanes, I expect fewer and fewer supply chain disruptions.
I think that's right... But considering factories and warehouses in liberal cities, and maybe more importantly, disruptions overseas, effect the stretch. Create stumbling blocks. I am not saying they are insurmountable, but still and all, a tarp maker in Texas needs them brass eyelets... Likely imported from china or Taiwan... And if they cannot come from there, the next choice is going to be a liberal city up in the rust belt somewhere... And the next choice after that? [???]... Maybe waiting a while before going full bore.
And there are overages to consider too - Cheap fuel right now. Great, right? Yes it is for kick-starting ailing businesses... Bit it also means the oil industry is gonna be sagging for at least a quarter while oversupply gets consumed.
Shoot as much TP as everybody bought up, Charmin will be laying off for a long time.
It's a monkey knot. Who knows how it shakes out? It WILL shake out, no doubt. It's the stretch that is unknown.
I happy to go on record to say, that the attempt of the dims to shutdown the American economy for political gain, is not only going to fail, but might backfire mightily
**Divided for emphasis.
I will join you in that prediction, and in fact, I think the mighty backfire is surely coming. And probably sooner than later. Liberals always overreach. And already folks in the city are at 'hell no'. I think that length of 'stretch' is directly proportional to how far liberals can beat this dead horse before city folks hit 'Oh hell no'. The longer it goes, the slower the recovery... but the longer it goes the more fiery the backlash. Makes me kinda undecided which way to root for. :shrug: :whistle:
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Lot of flowery non-financial, non-technical, reasoning there saying why it won't be a "V" recovery. If you saw my original post, I said I am not 100% certain either. But I have been watching this stuff 40 years, and have done it long enough to watch how fundamentals impact market movement. Calling an abrupt recovery preposterous, is tad out there to say the least.........
Base consumption numbers are spiking up, and that typically dominoes up the food chain. Then add the fact that the majority of investors are in for the lot haul. 30+ years. Yes, recent exuberance may be overstated, but one overiding fact remains..... If you box any 10 year period from the depression to today, there has beeb an increase in the DJIA. There is always anxiety in investing, but the years of burying or putting your nest egg in a matress is ancient history.
In fact your last sentence substantuates the fact, you have no idea where the market will go. Because, honestly....no one can predict the market past a few days anyway. It's just the nature of the beast, and subject as you stated to unforseen events.
Myself? 2 months ago, my money would have been on a "U", Now... I think it is the least likely. Watch for a "V", or if a second COVID-19 wave hits, a "W". Hey, but if an asteroid hits the earth......
I'd like to hear a little more on where you think the markets are trending. Sounds like you are a serious Bear.
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As I began, all are entitled to their opinion and you heard mine; so let me begin at your end.
I have absolutely no interest in the Dow (or the How and the Wow), as it
represents the essence of materialism, the fundamental reason we have
become a valueless nation/state addicted to "more stuff" and little else.
I have no idea where the Dow is heading and care less.
For me, the message from COVID is plain and simple which is that I am mortal, yet remain
responsible for setting an example for my family that encourages them to survive and thrive.
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As I began, all are entitled to their opinion and you heard mine; so let me begin at your end.
I have absolutely no interest in the Dow (or the How and the Wow), as it
represents the essence of materialism, the fundamental reason we have
become a valueless nation/state addicted to "more stuff" and little else.
I have no idea where the Dow is heading and care less.
For me, the message from COVID is plain and simple which is that I am mortal, yet remain
responsible for setting an example for my family that encourages them to survive and thrive.
As I have said in the past, I enjoy your historical posts @Absalom . But could you explain your opinion to me? Of course materialism is not a good thing. But people have to live. That entails companies doing well so people can make a living. Many older retired people depend on the market, not for materialistic pursuit, but for food and shelter. Cash/stocks/bonds etc. are necessary in order to live.
Setting an example is a worthy and necessary endeavor. But in doing so, shouldn't that include survival?
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IMHO how well the economy comes back will depend a lot on who is in the WH next January.
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As I have said in the past, I enjoy your historical posts @Absalom . But could you explain your opinion to me? Of course materialism is not a good thing. But people have to live. That entails companies doing well so people can make a living. Many older retired people depend on the market, not for materialistic pursuit, but for food and shelter. Cash/stocks/bonds etc. are necessary in order to live.
Setting an example is a worthy and necessary endeavor. But in doing so, shouldn't that include survival?
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Certainly survival is paramount yet didn't the Ancients also survive?
The earliest cultures/societies of the Fertile Crescent up to the Enlightenment spanned
some 10,000 years, warts and all.
Many factors let them survive and thrive, most prominently their spiritual sensibilities.
Then the Enlightenment arrived touting material betterment as Man's higher calling and
for some, his salvation.
This idea has ruled the world ever since and in my judgement hardly for the better.
Let me leave you w/2 thoughts.
* Assessing the quality of Art and Science pre and post Enlightenment;
which era was/is infinitely superior?
* Assessing religion, is the modern Roman Catholic Church superior to
its predecessor (as well, is the Pontiff himself a Catholic?)
Stay well!
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I happy to go on record to say, that the attempt of the dims to shutdown the American economy for political gain, is not only going to fail, but might backfire mightily
I hope you're correct. But I'm seeing far too many once rational people I know buying into the panic. Whether it's the lockdown or virtue signaling with masks.
They've become infected with fear.
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Certainly survival is paramount yet didn't the Ancients also survive?
The earliest cultures/societies of the Fertile Crescent up to the Enlightenment spanned
some 10,000 years, warts and all.
Many factors let them survive and thrive, most prominently their spiritual sensibilities.
Then the Enlightenment arrived touting material betterment as Man's higher calling and
for some, his salvation.
This idea has ruled the world ever since and in my judgement hardly for the better.
Let me leave you w/2 thoughts.
* Assessing the quality of Art and Science pre and post Enlightenment;
which era was/is infinitely superior?
* Assessing religion, is the modern Roman Catholic Church superior to
its predecessor (as well, is the Pontiff himself a Catholic?)
Stay well!
Thank you for your reply and I will give an answer tomorrow as my self imposed computer time has expired, lol.
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As I began, all are entitled to their opinion and you heard mine; so let me begin at your end.
I have absolutely no interest in the Dow (or the How and the Wow), as it
represents the essence of materialism, the fundamental reason we have
become a valueless nation/state addicted to "more stuff" and little else.
I have no idea where the Dow is heading and care less.
For me, the message from COVID is plain and simple which is that I am mortal, yet remain
responsible for setting an example for my family that encourages them to survive and thrive.
@Absalom
I certainly welcome your opinion, and I fully can see your point. OTOH, not everyone who invests in the markets is Gordon Gecko. My incentive was being able to retire at young age, and enjoy the last 20 or 30 years of my life in leisure. I also hope to leave enough of an estate to make sure my children won't ever suffer finacially.
I am an extremely frugal indiviudal, so the concept of extreme materialism you mention does not apply to me, or to most of the people who particpate in this level of investing. OTOH..... It does not hurt to be smart enough, and knowledgeable enough around these matters to do your best to preserve the capital base to live on the interest, dividends, etc.
So basically your last sentence is identical to my intent to do well in investing. Encouragment to thrive, and survive. The thrive part, typically requires a sound monetary base.
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I am graateful for parents and grandparents, that taught me and showed me the value of working, earning, saving, investing in stocks/bondestate.s and real estate.
Same for my wife's family.
Immigrants, veterans. Highly educated, not so highly educated. A college professor, a cowboy for example.
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I also hope to leave enough of an estate to make sure my children won't ever suffer financially.
Think how much easier that prospect would be if you were allowed to invest the 12.5% of your income that the government confiscates (at the point of a gun) as part of the Social Security Ponzi Scheme? There is nothing in our country that goes further to ensure cyclical poverty than does Social Security.
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Think how much easier that prospect would be if you were allowed to invest the 12.5% of your income that the government confiscates (at the point of a gun) as part of the Social Security Ponzi Scheme? There is nothing in our country that goes further to ensure cyclical poverty than does Social Security.
100% right. I won't be drawing for a few years, but the way the government indexes all SS as taxable @ >$34K?
Double taxation to boot.
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@Absalom
I certainly welcome your opinion, and I fully can see your point. OTOH, not everyone who invests in the markets is Gordon Gecko. My incentive was being able to retire at young age, and enjoy the last 20 or 30 years of my life in leisure. I also hope to leave enough of an estate to make sure my children won't ever suffer finacially.
I am an extremely frugal indiviudal, so the concept of extreme materialism you mention does not apply to me, or to most of the people who particpate in this level of investing. OTOH..... It does not hurt to be smart enough, and knowledgeable enough around these matters to do your best to preserve the capital base to live on the interest, dividends, etc.
So basically your last sentence is identical to my intent to do well in investing. Encouragement to thrive, and survive. The thrive part, typically requires a sound monetary base.
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No argument and soundly articulated.
Adam Smith is very likely smiling.
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I am grateful for parents and grandparents, that taught me and showed me the value of working, earning, saving, investing in stocks/bonds and real estate.
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Your words about parents and grandparents, showing and teaching, reminded me of this.
Socrates was the guide/tutor of Plato, who in turn, did the same for Aristotle.
But we moderns who are the greatest (why of course) have no need of such experiences
cuz we have credentials and degrees and recommendations!
Hmm.........................................................
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No argument and soundly articulated.
Adam Smith is very likely smiling.
@Absalom
That's a very kind complement, coming from a well respected and intelligent Briefer. Thanks.
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Certainly survival is paramount yet didn't the Ancients also survive?
The earliest cultures/societies of the Fertile Crescent up to the Enlightenment spanned
some 10,000 years, warts and all.
Many factors let them survive and thrive, most prominently their spiritual sensibilities.
Then the Enlightenment arrived touting material betterment as Man's higher calling and
for some, his salvation.
This idea has ruled the world ever since and in my judgement hardly for the better.
Let me leave you w/2 thoughts.
* Assessing the quality of Art and Science pre and post Enlightenment;
which era was/is infinitely superior?
* Assessing religion, is the modern Roman Catholic Church superior to
its predecessor (as well, is the Pontiff himself a Catholic?)
Stay well!
I'm not sure how much the Enlightenment had to do with materialism and lack of spirituality. I hazard to guess that when Barney looked at Fred's cave and saw that it was bigger, better and safer than his...he strove to improve his station in life. I am of the opinion the desire to excel is inherent in mankind. In my mind I imagine the first to invent fire and then cook his meat had a revelation...this will keep me warm and the meat is great. Mankind has always, more than likely, been covetous. As time progressed there was more and more to covet. Thus the increase in greed/materialism. Likewise, I think spirituality has been in existence, in different forms, since Fred and Barney were around. Some hypocritical...some not. I agree that conventional spirituality maybe at low ebb in today's time. I could have summed this up easier...the more things change, the more they remain the same.
Art and Science are two completely different animals in my mind...both pre and post Enlightenment. Thus they aren't really comparable (at least to me). Both very necessary and valuable.
The Catholic Church was far more powerful prior to the Enlightenment/Reformation. Since I value difference of opinion/belief, I don't see that split as a bad thing. My own spiritual beliefs don't align with any denomination. Consequently (not being Catholic) I don't feel qualified to comment on the current Pope. I only know what I read in the media.
As you can see, I'm not a philosopher. And not a particularly good writer...So I hope you are a good "understander". happy77
You stay well, also @Absalom
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I'm not sure how much the Enlightenment had to do with materialism and lack of spirituality. I hazard to guess that when Barney looked at Fred's cave and saw that it was bigger, better and safer than his...he strove to improve his station in life. I am of the opinion the desire to excel is inherent in mankind. In my mind I imagine the first to invent fire and then cook his meat had a revelation...this will keep me warm and the meat is great. Mankind has always, more than likely, been covetous. As time progressed there was more and more to covet. Thus the increase in greed/materialism. Likewise, I think spirituality has been in existence, in different forms, since Fred and Barney were around. Some hypocritical...some not. I agree that conventional spirituality maybe at low ebb in today's time. I could have summed this up easier...the more things change, the more they remain the same.
Materialism is a subjective charge... Family of 6. never had a new car, never lived in more than 1200 ft2... But we never went hungry. Always warm and dry. And sometimes close to wealth.
One could claim I am not materially driven compared to others in this day. Even so, I have far more material wealth that most of mankind in history.
How to properly thread that needle is beyond me.
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Materialism is a subjective charge... Family of 6. never had a new car, never lived in more than 1200 ft2... But we never went hungry. Always warm and dry. And sometimes close to wealth.
One could claim I am not materially driven compared to others in this day. Even so, I have far more material wealth that most of mankind in history.
How to properly thread that needle is beyond me.
Well @roamer_1 , some work to live, and some live to work...
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Well @roamer_1 , some work to live, and some live to work...
@EdinVA , I don't know how either of those necessarily result in materialism...
I mean, where is that line?
Is it a McMansion, a boat, and a motorhome?
Or is it a cabin, a duck boat, and a doghouse on the back of a pickup?
Is it landed gentry? Plenty of farmers would disagree..
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I'm not sure how much the Enlightenment had to do with materialism and lack of spirituality. I hazard to guess that when Barney looked at Fred's cave and saw that it was bigger, better and safer than his...he strove to improve his station in life. I am of the opinion the desire to excel is inherent in mankind. In my mind I imagine the first to invent fire and then cook his meat had a revelation...this will keep me warm and the meat is great. Mankind has always, more than likely, been covetous. As time progressed there was more and more to covet. Thus the increase in greed/materialism. Likewise, I think spirituality has been in existence, in different forms, since Fred and Barney were around. Some hypocritical...some not. I agree that conventional spirituality maybe at low ebb in today's time. I could have summed this up easier...the more things change, the more they remain the same.
Art and Science are two completely different animals in my mind...both pre and post Enlightenment. Thus they aren't really comparable (at least to me). Both very necessary and valuable.
The Catholic Church was far more powerful prior to the Enlightenment/Reformation. Since I value difference of opinion/belief, I don't see that split as a bad thing. My own spiritual beliefs don't align with any denomination. Consequently (not being Catholic) I don't feel qualified to comment on the current Pope. I only know what I read in the media.
As you can see, I'm not a philosopher. And not a particularly good writer...So I hope you are a good "understander". happy77
You stay well, also @Absalom
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Not going to go back and forth w/you over this word and that sentence,
unlike some; as such, your opinions are well expressed.
Stay well!
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Certainly survival is paramount yet didn't the Ancients also survive?
The earliest cultures/societies of the Fertile Crescent up to the Enlightenment spanned
some 10,000 years, warts and all.
Many factors let them survive and thrive, most prominently their spiritual sensibilities.
Then the Enlightenment arrived touting material betterment as Man's higher calling and
for some, his salvation.
This idea has ruled the world ever since and in my judgement hardly for the better.
Let me leave you w/2 thoughts.
* Assessing the quality of Art and Science pre and post Enlightenment;
which era was/is infinitely superior?
* Assessing religion, is the modern Roman Catholic Church superior to
its predecessor (as well, is the Pontiff himself a Catholic?)
Stay well!
Ahhh............. but BEETHOVEN!!
(Influenced deeply by Aufklarung)
Nonetheless, I get your point!
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Ahhh............. but BEETHOVEN!!
(Influenced deeply by Aufklarung)
Nonetheless, I get your point!
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Neither said nor implied that quality in Art and Science disappeared w/the Enlightenment; rather
my assertion is that the greatest achievements in both categories occurred before rather than after.
What does the modern world have to offer in Architecture, competing w/the Greek Acropolis in
Athens, in Painting, to the interior of the Sistine Chapel in Rome, in Music, to the harmony and rhythm of the Baroque, in Drama, to the work of Aeschylus, Sophocles and Shakespeare, to categorize just a few?
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Ludwig van Beethoven. Ludwig from the town of "beethoven"
Johann Sebastian Bach,,, Sebastion Johann from Bach
Johannes Chrysostomus Wolfgangus Theophilus Mozart
seriesly
Throw a millstone around my neck like "Johannes Chrysostomus Wolfgangus Theophilus Mozart" and the last will becme first.
Mozart.
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Neither said nor implied that quality in Art and Science disappeared w/the Enlightenment; rather
my assertion is that the greatest achievements in both categories occurred before rather than after.
What does the modern world have to offer in Architecture, in contrast to the Greek Acropolis in
Athens, in Painting to the interior of the Sistine Chapel in Rome, in Music to the harmony and rhythm of the Baroque, in Drama to the work of Aeschylus, Sophocles and Shakespeare, to categorize a few?
Point taken on the architecture from days gone by.
There are certainly some outstanding examples of how we as mankind have profited from relatively recent episodes of what you refer to as 'materialism'.
The 'Ancients' had an average life span of 3 to 4 decades while we now enjoy twice that. There is certainly some profit in living twice as long if one suffers through the plague of materialism, which has assisted in longevity by improving our healthcare system.
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Point taken on the architecture from days gone by.
There are certainly some outstanding examples of how we as mankind have profited from relatively recent episodes of what you refer to as 'materialism'.
The 'Ancients' had an average life span of 3 to 4 decades while we now enjoy twice that. There is certainly some profit in living twice as long if one suffers through the plague of materialism, which has assisted in longevity by improving our healthcare system.
The "Ancients' had lifespans that lasted millennia. According to Sumerian glyphs.
That is not the point.
Life with life can replicate life but it is only the Creator of life to give that life to life.
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Ludwig van Beethoven. Ludwig from the town of "beethoven"
Johann Sebastian Bach,,, Sebastion Johann from Bach
Johannes Chrysostomus Wolfgangus Theophilus Mozart seriesly
Throw a millstone around my neck like "Johannes Chrysostomus Wolfgangus Theophilus Mozart" and the last will became first. Mozart.
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Indeed Bach, Beethoven and Mozart were geniuses who matured and created
during the Enlightenment, which spanned some 75 years commencing in 1715.
Yet isn't it fair to assert that the the earlier Baroque Era was the legacy/heritage
that fed the creative impulse of these three.
As we move on through the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries, isn't it also obvious
that the quality of the music we moderns produce bears no linkage to that of its
pre-Enlightenment creators.
Further can't that be said of all the Art we moderns produce.
Anyway all opinions are entitled, so stay well.