The Briefing Room
General Category => Economy/Business => Topic started by: libertybele on April 24, 2020, 05:05:40 pm
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IMHO this may hold true, but ONLY if Trump is re-elected.
This respected market-timing model just flashed a bullish four-year outlook for stocks
The median U.S. stock will produce an annualized price-only gain of 6.0% over the next four years. With dividends, that’s equivalent to nearly 8% annualized.
This cheerful forecast is produced by a market timing model that has an excellent track record predicting the market’s return over the subsequent four years. It is based on a single number that is printed each week in the Value Line Investment Survey. That number represents the median of the projections made by Value Line’s analysts of where the 1,700 widely-followed stocks they closely monitor will be trading in three- to five years’ time.
Researchers who have analyzed its market timing potential call this number the VLMAP, which stands for Value Line’s Median Appreciation Potential. They translate the number into a return forecast by searching for the formula that, when applied to the VLMAP, best fits the historical data.
One such study appeared in the Journal of Wealth Management in 2013, co-authored by Daniel Seiver, a member of the economics faculty at Cal Poly State University and editor of an investment advisory service named The PAD System Report. Seiver reported that the VLMAP “has strong medium- and long-horizon stock-return forecasting ability.†(Full disclosure: Seiver’s newsletter is not one that utilizes my firm to audit its returns.)........
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-respected-market-timing-model-just-flashed-a-bullish-four-year-outlook-for-stocks-2020-04-24?mod=home-page (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-respected-market-timing-model-just-flashed-a-bullish-four-year-outlook-for-stocks-2020-04-24?mod=home-page)
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I don't know if it would be wise to trust ANY "stock market model" right now...
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I don't know if it would be wise to trust ANY "stock market model" right now...
Agreed. Definitely not.
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I don't know if it would be wise to trust ANY "stock market model" right now...
A couple of Old School strategies should be available now.
--Buy low
--Hold long term
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A couple of Old School strategies should be available now.
--Buy low
--Hold long term
True -- but has the market hit its low? It's very difficult to 'time' the market, especially now. The only recent event that's been unexpected such as this pandemic was 9/11 -- this has thrown more people out of work and the country is in astronomical debt and printing more $$$ continues to be thrown at the situation.
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True -- but has the market hit its low? It's very difficult to 'time' the market, especially now. The only recent event that's been unexpected such as this pandemic was 9/11 -- this has thrown more people out of work and the country is in astronomical debt and printing more $$$ continues to be thrown at the situation.
I don't claim to know the exact bottom.
I am a real estate broker, not a stock broker.
I do better with the former, than the latter.
But both together are the way people store/invest for wealth.
Locally I am watching widely respected sources about real estate, in my area and nationally.