The Briefing Room
General Category => Politics/Government => Topic started by: Axel on September 14, 2016, 09:25:35 pm
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A number of state polls released today have shown Trump has gained momentum is several key states. FiveThirtyEight has adjusted their projections and Trump is at his highest chance of winning post convention at around 1/3 odds. Assuming Clinton slips a bit further between now and the debates post healthgate, we would be set up for a very close finish possibly dependent upon the results of the debates.
So engage me here in this thought exercise. Which state is most likely to put him over the top?
My assumptions:
FL: 29 votes
NC: 15 votes
IA: 6 votes
ME #2: 1 vote
OH: 18 votes
NV: 6 votes
All of these states Trump has polled ahead of Clinton, and has a very realistic chance (50% or better) of beating her. Still, he's just a bit short at 272 to 266.
Other possibilities:
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Colorado
I feel like if any of those states turn, New Hampshire will first because its population demographics are best for Trump. Interestingly, a new poll came out today showing him trailing by only 3 pts in Maine, within margin of error. Winning the state outright would only net him a tie in the electoral college though.
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The state of confusion.
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The state of confusion.
:silly:
I clicked on this thread just to say that and you beat me to it!
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Best shot is NH.
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Well it's not gonna be IL....all day my local radio station has been spewing the latest state poll..Clinton 20pts ahead.....folks no way Clinton 20 points ahead even here in Il...she is still running ads here in this so called safe state.
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@Axel
In all seriousness, I do not know, but I'd say this:
I think he will have to win FL, PA, and OH, all 3.
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Well it's not gonna be IL....all day my local radio station has been spewing the latest state poll..Clinton 20pts ahead.....folks no way Clinton 20 points ahead even here in Il...she is still running ads here in this so called safe state.
Trump did well in Illinois primary, winning Chicagoland. I wouldn't be surprised if he improves on Romney's numbers by several points.
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@Axel
In all seriousness, I do not know, but I'd say this:
I think he will have to win FL, PA, and OH, all 3.
I feel like winning PA is actually less likely than winning all the other states.
However, this does give me some hope.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/why-democrats-in-western-pennsylvania-are-voting-trump/499577/
Why Democrats in Western Pennsylvania Are Voting Trump
A surprisingly good read from the Atlantic.
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The 58th state, the State of Delusion.
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Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Florida are going for Clinton. Bet on it.
There is a good chance that North Carolina will, too.
Arizona and Ohio are a flip of the coin.
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The state of confusion.
Gov. Cannon is a big Trump supporter there.
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@Axel Trump is going to flip the upper mid-west (Wisconsin, Michigan) red, which will make the Democrat lock on eastern PA a moot point.
If he continues on his current path I'll predict he crosses 300 EV on his way to a landslide win.
Trump in Canton: I'm not running for President of the world, I'm running for President of the United States!
Crowd on its feet: USA! USA! USA!
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@Axel Trump is going to flip the upper mid-west (Wisconsin, Michigan) red, which will make the Democrat lock on eastern PA a moot point.
If he continues on his current path I'll predict he crosses 300 EV on his way to a landslide win.
Trump in Canton: I'm not running for President of the world, I'm running for President of the United States!
Crowd on its feet: USA! USA! USA!
Wanna put $100 on it?
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The state of confusion.
I so WANTED to be the FIRST to post that Prediction!!!
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@sinkspur
There's plenty of action at Predictit https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67/National (https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67/National).
You can get 2:1 odds for a Trump wins wager, and 3:1 odds for a Trump wins in Michigan or Michigan.
I can also get better than 4:1 odds for a 300 EV or better result...without having to choose which party gets it.
So you'd have to offer some pretty good odds to get me interested in taking your money.
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@sinkspur
There's plenty of action at Predictit https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67/National (https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67/National).
You can get 2:1 odds for a Trump wins wager, and 3:1 odds for a Trump wins in Michigan or Michigan.
I can also get better than 4:1 odds for a 300 EV or better result...without having to choose which party gets it.
So you'd have to offer some pretty good odds to get me interested in taking your money.
Not very confident are you? $100 that Trump doesn't win. No?
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@sinkspur
There's plenty of action at Predictit https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67/National (https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67/National).
You can get 2:1 odds for a Trump wins wager, and 3:1 odds for a Trump wins in Michigan or Michigan.
I can also get better than 4:1 odds for a 300 EV or better result...without having to choose which party gets it.
So you'd have to offer some pretty good odds to get me interested in taking your money.
Take him up on it. He thought Romney would win :laugh:
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@Axel Trump is going to flip the upper mid-west (Wisconsin, Michigan) red, which will make the Democrat lock on eastern PA a moot point.
If he continues on his current path I'll predict he crosses 300 EV on his way to a landslide win.
Trump in Canton: I'm not running for President of the world, I'm running for President of the United States!
Crowd on its feet: USA! USA! USA!
Any scenario of a Trump landslide runs through the Rust Belt. If any of those dominoes fall, the others are shortly behind. The thing is, he has to continue his current momentum. Luckily he has the debates still to come and is sitting in a good spot, all things considered.
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The state of insanity.
Flowed closely by the state of desperation...
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Take him up on it. He thought Romney would win :laugh:
@Axel Romney never generated excitement like this.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsXWq8WUMAATZCq.jpg)
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@Axel Romney never generated excitement like this.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsXWq8WUMAATZCq.jpg)
I llve in a mostly Conservative, extremely Republican subdivision just outside Tampa. In 2012, the next street over had a Romney sign in EVERY SINGLE yard. This Tuesday the first Trump sign went up.
If Romney (supposedly) lost FL...
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If Romney (supposedly) lost FL...
Considering what Romney has been up to during this cycle it wouldn't surprise me if he conspired to throw the 2012 election.