The Briefing Room
General Category => Politics/Government => Topic started by: mystery-ak on November 03, 2016, 04:28:58 pm
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Poll: 'Shy Trump' voters are a mirage
A new study suggests an army of hidden Trump supporters is unlikely to materialize on Election Day.
By Steven Shepard
11/03/16 08:58 AM EDT
Donald Trump has insisted for months that polls are failing to capture the breadth of his support because some of his backers won’t admit it to a pollster over the telephone.
He’s wrong.
According to a POLITICO/Morning Consult study conducted by Morning Consult this past weekend and released Thursday, a hidden army of Trump voters that's undetected by the polls is unlikely to materialize on Election Day.
The study — which was composed of interviews with likely voters conducted over the phone with a live interviewer, and other interviews conducted online without a personal interaction — showed only a slight, not-statistically-significant difference in their effect on voters’ preferences for president.
That’s despite an emerging disparity in the public polling: Hillary Clinton leads Trump by 4 percentage points in national, live-interview phone polls, according to HuffPost Pollster’s average as of Wednesday night — but only by 2.6 points in online and automated phone polls.
more
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/poll-shy-voters-trump-230667
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If there is one thing tRump supporters are not, it is shy.
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At some point this type of polling will collapse. With caller ID and cell phones, most people will just ignore a call. THat means for them to get a sample, they have to dig deep meaning it is not a representative sample of average people.
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And polls are notoriously not only off; but in many cases, do not agree with each other.
Bernie trounced Clinton in Michigan but the polls said the opposite would happen.
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I think the polls are picking up a surge by Trump since Comey said the FBI is investigating the emails. Also, now we're finding out the clinton foundation is being investgated as well and indictments are likely. There's no question that Trump is gaining. The polls tend to try and get close to the actual results about this time. The biggest problem they have is calculating what %'s of Pubs and Rats will vote.
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At some point this type of polling will collapse. With caller ID and cell phones, most people will just ignore a call. THat means for them to get a sample, they have to dig deep meaning it is not a representative sample of average people.
Well, I ignore all numbers I don't kniw, but do get near instant text messages with the contents of any voice mails. I either add legitimate numbers to my phone and/or them back. I always respond to the polls that are e-mailed to me.
You are right, getting a response to calls has to be difficult these days.
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At some point this type of polling will collapse. With caller ID and cell phones, most people will just ignore a call. THat means for them to get a sample, they have to dig deep meaning it is not a representative sample of average people.
That's exactly it. People who get polled alot also tend to lie because they're tired of getting called, as do people who've already voted, or people who feel intimidated because of who they are voting for.
There's no such thing as a representative sample anymore.
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"A new study suggests an army of hidden Trump supporters is unlikely to materialize on Election Day."
Not so sure about that. I may yet vote for Trump, but I'm darn sure not going to admit to it...
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"A new study suggests an army of hidden Trump supporters is unlikely to materialize on Election Day."
Not so sure about that. I may yet vote for Trump, but I'm darn sure not going to admit to it...
I've had the same thoughts on occasion but after thinking it through I realize my decision to not support him was correct the first time.
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Fortunately for Trump 'Ashamed GOP' voters are REAL.
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I wish these fools were shy, but they want the world to know they plan to Make Rape Great Again