The Briefing Room
State Chapters => Arizona => Topic started by: HikerGuy83 on August 22, 2022, 12:04:46 am
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With Blake Masters down by 8 points, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is pulling ads from AZ, as well two other states.
Many see this as an admission that the headwins in AZ may be just to great for Masters.
Or else they are hoping that private doners are going going to carry the load so they can focus on other races that need help.
I honestly don't know that much about Masters.
But it seems like AZ will have two democratic senators until Sinema comes up for re-election in 2024.
At least the way things are going.
Per what I am reading.
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pinging @Cyber Liberty
What do you think..I have read the same about this race.
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Masters is Trump endorsed and an election denier.
The word is that the democrats crossed lines to vote for the Trump endorsees so that they would win primaries and be easier to defeat in the general.
That is just the scuttle I've read. Don't know if it is true.
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Can you post a link to the poll and media source @HikerGuy83 ? I'd like to dig a little deeper into both.
Thanks.
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Can you post a link to the poll and media source @HikerGuy83 ? I'd like to dig a little deeper into both.
Thanks.
Sure.
https://theweek.com/republicans/1015932/senate-republican-pac-cuts-ad-spending-in-at-least-4-key-battleground-races
This one discusses:
1. The ads that were pulled.
2. Alternatives that might be used.
3. How the committee has already spent a bunch of money.
4. How money is needed where candidates did not (or could not) do enough fund raising.
Here is the polling from 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
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Molly Hemingway lays into Mitch McConnell over his comments about candidate quality.
Unfortunately, he's already let the words out....and the left is just howling happy.....thanks Mitch.
https://thefederalist.com/2022/08/19/come-on-mitch-mcconnell-republicans-need-you-to-step-up-and-lead/
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Sure.
https://theweek.com/republicans/1015932/senate-republican-pac-cuts-ad-spending-in-at-least-4-key-battleground-races
This one discusses:
1. The ads that were pulled.
2. Alternatives that might be used.
3. How the committee has already spent a bunch of money.
4. How money is needed where candidates did not (or could not) do enough fund raising.
Here is the polling from 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
Article references NYT and Politico. Not exactly great sources for objective news.
Despite Turtle's defeatist attitude, I wouldn't write off AZ, GA, and PA just yet. A lot economic data to hit the news cycles between now and early November.
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Article references NYT and Politico. Not exactly great sources for objective news.
Despite Turtle's defeatist attitude, I wouldn't write off AZ, GA, and PA just yet. A lot economic data to hit the news cycles between now and early November.
It's data.
538 shows Masters is down by eight points.
That could change.
I'd rather he were up 8 points though.
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No updates on polls (of which I am aware).
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No updates on polls (of which I am aware).
I don't believe polls from people who have a stake in the election results. That means pretty much all media-purchased polls. Once it's understood today's polls are engineered to change public opinion rather than simply reflect it, you'll never look at polls the same way ever again.
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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/arizona-blake-masters-backtracks-abortion-scrubs-campaign-website-rcna44808
"I am 100% pro-life," Masters' website read as of Thursday morning.
That language is now gone.
Another notable deletion: a line that detailed his support for "a federal personhood law (ideally a Constitutional amendment) that recognizes that unborn babies are human beings that may not be killed."
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It seems that Masters might realize that he's in trouble.
I don't know what irritates me more.
That he took it down or that he didn't think about it to begin with.
Taking it down will likely cost him some support.
My question: What does Blake Masters really believe and want to do ?
This doesn't look good.
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I don't believe polls from people who have a stake in the election results. That means pretty much all media-purchased polls. Once it's understood today's polls are engineered to change public opinion rather than simply reflect it, you'll never look at polls the same way ever again.
It is quite clear that many polls are set up that way. However, all indications that there are ways to extract information from them.
Masters is altering his campaign (or so it would seem). Why ?
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/26gsrGGFhMr5oFu4U/giphy.gif)
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It is quite clear that many polls are set up that way. However, all indications that there are ways to extract information from them.
Masters is altering his campaign (or so it would seem). Why ?
You do know that Mitch McConnell prefers to have Mark Kelly than an America First Republican, don't you? Masters has to fight both the Democrat Nominee in addition to fighting the GOPe.
If you choose to believe Turtle, then that's on you. I prefer to fight for the America Firster despite the attempts to steer us into a "No Vote."
I have a say. I also have some control over donations made by my County's GOP.
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You do know that Mitch McConnell prefers to have Mark Kelly than an America First Republican, don't you? Masters has to fight both the Democrat Nominee in addition to fighting the GOPe.
If you choose to believe Turtle, then that's on you. I prefer to fight for the America Firster despite the attempts to steer us into a "No Vote."
I have a say. I also have some control over donations made by my County's GOP.
Mitch has needed to go for quite some time. I sometimes wonder if he isn't possesed by the Spirit of John McStain.
And true conservatives (which is not all Trump endorsees) have always had to fight to the RINO's in the part as well as the democrats.
They do and they often win.
That should be cause for hope.
Masters, IME, shot himself in one foot and has the gun pointed at the other.
He's changing his site. Is he hoping people don't notice...in today's world ?
Something's gotta give and right now it does not look good for Masters....he's handing them a grenade they can use to blow him up.
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/26gsrGGFhMr5oFu4U/giphy.gif)
:pondering: Where are his hands?
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With Blake Masters down by 8 points standing up against RINOs that sold us out two years ago, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is pulling ads from AZ
There, fixed it.
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Mitch has needed to go for quite some time. I sometimes wonder if he isn't possesed by the Spirit of John McStain.
And true conservatives (which is not all Trump endorsees) have always had to fight to the RINO's in the part as well as the democrats.
They do and they often win.
That should be cause for hope.
Masters, IME, shot himself in one foot and has the gun pointed at the other.
He's changing his site. Is he hoping people don't notice...in today's world ?
Something's gotta give and right now it does not look good for Masters....he's handing them a grenade they can use to blow him up.
Bitch, er, Mitch doesn't want a republican majority, and certainly not of the MAGA kind because then he would have to actually produce. with a democrat majority B, er Mitch can continue being a paper tiger all roar and no bite and the stupid republican will continue to say 'wow that Mitch is working so hard for us, too bad he doesn't have a majority'.
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The GOP can take the House in the mid terms but if the DEMS gain seats in the Senate well, you can kiss your derriere good-bye.
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Mitch has needed to go for quite some time. I sometimes wonder if he isn't possesed by the Spirit of John McStain.
And true conservatives (which is not all Trump endorsees) have always had to fight to the RINO's in the part as well as the democrats.
They do and they often win.
That should be cause for hope.
Masters, IME, shot himself in one foot and has the gun pointed at the other.
He's changing his site. Is he hoping people don't notice...in today's world ?
Something's gotta give and right now it does not look good for Masters....he's handing them a grenade they can use to blow him up.
There is no way in Hell I will vote for Kelly. I also don't back seat drive candidates I support, nor do I fret about their tactics.
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There, fixed it.
The RNSC is not pulling ads. That's a lie told to people who don't do research so they won't vote for conservatives.
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Bitch, er, Mitch doesn't want a republican majority, and certainly not of the MAGA kind because then he would have to actually produce. with a democrat majority B, er Mitch can continue being a paper tiger all roar and no bite and the stupid republican will continue to say 'wow that Mitch is working so hard for us, too bad he doesn't have a majority'.
Why is he even around ?
He's starting to remind me of Pelosi.
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The RNSC is not pulling ads. That's a lie told to people who don't do research so they won't vote for conservatives.
Seems just about everyone is reporting they are.
And this was from one of the articles:
“We’re leaving the door wide open in Arizona, but we want to move additional resources to other offensive opportunities that have become increasingly competitive, as well as an unexpected expense in Ohio,” said Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law. “We think the fundamentals of this election strongly favor Republicans, we see multiple paths to winning the majority, and we are going to invest heavily and strategically to achieve that goal.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/26/shifting-strategy-senate-gop-super-pac-cancels-ad-buys-in-arizona-alaska-00053965
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The GOP can take the House in the mid terms but if the DEMS gain seats in the Senate well, you can kiss your derriere good-bye.
If that happens, we better pray for Clarence Thomas's health.
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Seems just about everyone is reporting they are.
And this was from one of the articles:
“We’re leaving the door wide open in Arizona, but we want to move additional resources to other offensive opportunities that have become increasingly competitive, as well as an unexpected expense in Ohio,” said Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law. “We think the fundamentals of this election strongly favor Republicans, we see multiple paths to winning the majority, and we are going to invest heavily and strategically to achieve that goal.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/26/shifting-strategy-senate-gop-super-pac-cancels-ad-buys-in-arizona-alaska-00053965
You do know that just about all American media is owned by just six corporations, don't you?
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You do know that just about all American media is owned by just six corporations, don't you?
So, if the RNSC ran adds.....what are you telling us ?
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There is no way in Hell I will vote for Kelly. I also don't back seat drive candidates I support, nor do I fret about their tactics.
Everyone gets to make their own call.
I certainly have no interest in Kelly.
I am also not going to ignore disingenuous behaviour by people like Masters.
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So, if the RNSC ran adds.....what are you telling us ?
I'm telling you that they ALL sing off the same sheet of music because they are ALL owned by the same people.
Candidates buy ad space where they can get it.
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So, if the RNSC ran adds.....what are you telling us ?
The RNSC is run by Mitch Mc Connell. Blake didn't kiss McConnell's ring. Do you think the bastards in Washington should be able to select your representatives for you?
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Everyone gets to make their own call.
I certainly have no interest in Kelly.
I am also not going to ignore disingenuous behaviour by people like Masters.
Anyone who votes for ANY Democrat for anything now is beyond stupid!
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I'm telling you that they ALL sing off the same sheet of music because they are ALL owned by the same people.
Candidates buy ad space where they can get it.
And the people they quoted:
1. were lying
2. didn't say what was reported
3. or they are really pulling the ads.
Masters is behind.
I can't help that.
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The RNSC is run by Mitch Mc Connell. Blake didn't kiss McConnell's ring. Do you think the bastards in Washington should be able to select your representatives for you?
The RNSC is a symptom, not a cause.
So far, the AZ GOP has had little success in getting people into the senate chamber on our behalf.
McSally...loses twice.
Masters isn't looking so good.
I doubt they'll unseat Sinema.
Boy, do I get depressed.
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I have a VERY low tolerance for Democrat trolls!
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The RNSC is run by Mitch Mc Connell. Blake didn't kiss McConnell's ring. Do you think the bastards in Washington should be able to select your representatives for you?
I realize that many don't like it when we look inward and ask just how we are screwing this up.
But we seem to be (screwing it up).
The whole Lake/Robson fight was really just a joy to watch [heavy dose of sarcasm].
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Seems just about everyone is reporting they are.
And this was from one of the articles:
“We’re leaving the door wide open in Arizona, but we want to move additional resources to other offensive opportunities that have become increasingly competitive, as well as an unexpected expense in Ohio,” said Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law. “We think the fundamentals of this election strongly favor Republicans, we see multiple paths to winning the majority, and we are going to invest heavily and strategically to achieve that goal.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/26/shifting-strategy-senate-gop-super-pac-cancels-ad-buys-in-arizona-alaska-00053965
Politico is an enemy of Republicans. I'm disappointed to hear where you get your news, frankly.
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Politico is an enemy of Republicans. I'm disappointed to hear where you get your news, frankly.
Yes, we've been through this before....so you can save it.
I get my news from a lot of places.
You called the statement they are pulling ads a lie.
Care to share those links ?
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nrsc-books-2-2-million-arizona-wisconsin-ads-controversy-canceled-spots
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Yes, we've been through this before....so you can save it.
I get my news from a lot of places.
You called the statement they are pulling ads a lie.
Care to share those links ?
Nope. I'd be happy if you quoted JUST ONE Source that doesn't hate us.
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Seems just about everyone is reporting they are.
Is this your emotions talking? Or do you have a link to a news account that really says this?
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nrsc-books-2-2-million-arizona-wisconsin-ads-controversy-canceled-spots
NRSC books more than $2.2 million in Arizona, Wisconsin ads after controversy over canceled spots
From your link:
GOP Senate campaign group blasts 'false' New York Times report on ad spending (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-senate-campaign-group-blasts-false-new-york-times-report-ad-spending)
Gee, the NY Times lied about Republicans. Who saw that coming?
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From your link:
GOP Senate campaign group blasts 'false' New York Times report on ad spending (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-senate-campaign-group-blasts-false-new-york-times-report-ad-spending)
Gee, the NY Times lied about Republicans. Who saw that coming?
Be patient. He's looking up links from the WaPo and NYT.
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From the Fox link:
According to The Times' piece, the NRSC canceled roughly $10 million in ad buys across multiple media markets in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin due to "a likely sign of financial troubles" stemming from slowing online contributions.
"This is false, as I told Shane," NRSC communications director Chris Hartline tweeted, referencing the article's author, Shane Goldmacher.
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I believe the "false" claim was about it being about financial troubel.
That rebuttle existed in the Politico add.
The claim that they pulled the adds has not been rebutted, as far as I am concerned.
I forgot how rabid this board can be when it comes to counter discussion.
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From the Fox link:
According to The Times' piece, the NRSC canceled roughly $10 million in ad buys across multiple media markets in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin due to "a likely sign of financial troubles" stemming from slowing online contributions.
"This is false, as I told Shane," NRSC communications director Chris Hartline tweeted, referencing the article's author, Shane Goldmacher.
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I believe the "false" claim was about it being about financial troubel.
If you had simply continued on to the very next sentence, you would have gotten your answer:
"The NRSC is not cancelling spending. There is money being moved from the I.E. side back to the NRSC side of the wall," he added. "Nothing in this story is accurate. The NRSC has already spent $36 million on TV and has tens of millions more reserved."
Heck, he even tweeted it.
https://twitter.com/ChrisHartline/status/1559254143348391938
So again, I am not sure why you continue to cling to false DNC talking points.
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On another site, someone has an article showing Kelly dwarfing Masters in fundraising.....50 mill to 4 mill.
OpenSecrets has it at 52 million to 5 million.
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2022&id=AZS1
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On another site, someone has an article showing Kelly dwarfing Masters in fundraising.....50 mill to 4 mill.
OpenSecrets has it at 52 million to 5 million.
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2022&id=AZS1
That's really beautiful and all. But this has zero connection to the false claim that the GOP is cutting back on spending in Arizona. Let's stick with one false DNC talking point at a time, shall we?
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Fox News/Beacon has Masters trailing by 8 points.
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https://ktar.com/story/5213300/blake-masters-says-he-wont-apologize-for-abortion-stance-after-campaign-website-scrubbing/
Masters has softened the harder edges of his confrontational style and moved toward the center on key issues since emerging atop a crowded GOP field in this month’s primary.
He said he’s been going on the attack to clarify his abortion stance with the general election against Democrat Mark Kelly about two months away.
The Republican posted an ad on Twitter on Thursday that said he supported commonsense regulation around abortion.
Masters also said Kelly’s abortion views were extreme, takes he has since added to his website.
Kelly called the June Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade “a giant step backward for our country.”
“I added some language to [the website] that points out Mark Kelly calls me a pro-life extremist and I’m pro-life, I don’t make apologies for that,” Masters said.
“But I added some language to call him out, actually, that they’re lying about me and my position because they’re the extremists.”
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This seems pretty reasonable to me.
He needs to hammer Kelly over his statements on Roe.
Allowing the people of the states to make their own choices is a step backwards ?
Kelly is a puppet.
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Fox News/Beacon has Masters trailing by 8 points.
Good! The poll is the usual media poll lie, but it helps our side to run like we're 8 points behind.
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https://ktar.com/story/5213300/blake-masters-says-he-wont-apologize-for-abortion-stance-after-campaign-website-scrubbing/
. . .
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This seems pretty reasonable to me.
He needs to hammer Kelly over his statements on Roe.
Allowing the people of the states to make their own choices is a step backwards ?
Kelly is a puppet.
Didn't you post you were unhappy about Blake changing the content on his campaign website?
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:silly:
Article references NYT and Politico. Not exactly great sources for objective news.
Despite Turtle's defeatist attitude, I wouldn't write off AZ, GA, and PA just yet. A lot economic data to hit the news cycles between now and early November.
Well, the NYT is nothing I ever read and accept as gospel.
But I looked around and the story was being covered pretty thoroughly.
The dispute from what I can read is that the times hinted that this was due to money troubles.
That, from what I can tell, is what the NRSC is disputing.
They pulled the ads from the battleground states to use it other places.
They've also already spent a lot of money.
The NRSC disputes that they are cutting funding.
They've never said they didn't cut in the states mentioned in the OP.
Of course, some here don't get the difference as it doesn't fit the narrative.
Chris Hartline keeps denying things...but he'll never say they didn't pull adds in the state.
Of course this is "fake news", as I said, everyone is publishing it.
Then you have Fox reporting that:
FIRST ON FOX – The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Friday is releasing new ads in Wisconsin and Arizona for a total of more than $2.2 million in spending days after other canceled ads led to media stories about alleged fundraising issues.
So they seem to say the ads were canceled.
I guess they rate with the NYT.
:silly:
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Well, the NYT is nothing I ever read and accept as gospel.
But I looked around and the story was being covered pretty thoroughly.
By "story", you mean the NYTimes story itself, not the events described within. Because I haven't seen you post a single media report that corroborates their claims.
The dispute from what I can read is that the times hinted that this was due to money troubles.
And the only source for what you read (with zero evidence backing it) is the NYTimes.
That, from what I can tell, is what the NRSC is disputing.
They pulled the ads from the battleground states to use it other places.
A lie. That is not at all what the NRSC said.
Chris Hartline keeps denying things...but he'll never say they didn't pull ads in the state.
And you keep obfuscating. 'Pulling ads' is not the same as 'pulling funding' which is the claim you made.
Of course this is "fake news", as I said, everyone is publishing it.
The NYTimes is the only one publishing it. The others simply reference the NYTimes report. This is a favorite tactic of the Left, one which you seem to have an uncanny familiarity with.
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Didn't you post you were unhappy about Blake changing the content on his campaign website?
I said I don't ignore it when people are disingenuous.
That doesn't change that in my mind.
He's still more suspect.
Doesn't mean I can't accept his modified approach.
He's taking a beating over it (and he should).
Plus he's added clarrifications that are helpful.
My question is why he didn't do this to begin with ?
Was he pandering to the anti-abortion crowd ?
What does he TRULY believe.
His statements are, as I said, reasonable.
If they had been in place at the start, no problem for me.
If he doesn't change them (even though I am not toally on board), no problem for me.
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@HikerGuy83 Vote for him or not. :shrug:
That's all I can ask, and I'm cool with that.
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@HikerGuy83 Vote for him or not. :shrug:
That's all I can ask, and I'm cool with that.
Oh, I plan to vote for him.
Just because I don't like what he did does not mean I'd walk away from him.
I am not a fan of Lake either.
But better her than Hobbs.
I'll be voting for Lake too.
No candidate is perfect (I've made my feelings about Trump knowns but I voted for him twice and would do it again (in the given years...not today).
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If that happens, we better pray for Clarence Thomas's health.
Why? If the DNC gets the Senate, they’ll simply expand the Court by adding enough ideologically left “justices” to permanently remake the Constitution.
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Why? If the DNC gets the Senate, they’ll simply expand the Court by adding enough ideologically left “justices” to permanently remake the Constitution.
I don't think they have the appetite for that in all of their members.
But, the best thing would be if Arizona would get two GOP senators in D.C.
Right now, however, it ain't looking good for Masters.
There is work to be done.
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I don't think they have the appetite for that in all of their members.
But, the best thing would be if Arizona would get two GOP senators in D.C.
Right now, however, it ain't looking good for Masters.
There is work to be done.
McMasters dropped a "softball" last night on Ingraham's program.
Was into interview railing against Biden agenda, but called the 87,000 agents added "DHS" rather than "IRS"
Is that the norm for him?
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McMasters dropped a "softball" last night on Ingraham's program.
Was into interview railing against Biden agenda, but called the 87,000 agents added "DHS" rather than "IRS"
Is that the norm for him?
I truly don't know.
But he is getting attention all over the country for some of the things he has said in the past.
Not that it matters.....
He needs to win AZ.
And right now, he's in an uphill battle in almost every way.
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I get Youtube ads (I listen to music at work) are now targeting Black Masters on his abortion stance.
I think he's doing a little better in what polling there is going on.
I hope so.
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So, the National Republican Senatorial Committee cuts and runs when the going gets tough? What cowardly wusses.
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I get Youtube ads (I listen to music at work) are now targeting Black Masters on his abortion stance.
An aside, I know... But, d00d...
On whatever you're using, install Firefox (or other) with Ublock Origin addon, and you'll not see a YooToob ad ever again... Jussayin.
Don't use the Youtube app... The minute you are in a browser instead, all that goes away.
Jussayin. :whistle:
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So, the National Republican Senatorial Committee cuts and runs when the going gets tough? What cowardly wusses.
The NRSC is not cutting and running. They are still funding Masters with millions. Only Mitch McConnell's private PAC is not funding Masters. The story is bogus, because Turtle's PAC was never going to run ads, so there are no ads to pull.
Don't fall for this, @DefiantMassRINO.
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An aside, I know... But, d00d...
On whatever you're using, install Firefox (or other) with Ublock Origin addon, and you'll not see a YooToob ad ever again... Jussayin.
Don't use the Youtube app... The minute you are in a browser instead, all that goes away.
Jussayin. :whistle:
Thanks.
I'll look into it.
I don't mind adds since it makes money for some people (I think).
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So, the National Republican Senatorial Committee cuts and runs when the going gets tough? What cowardly wusses.
It was reported that the money was being redirected from AZ and 3 other races to races they needed to secure.
The NYSlimes intonated that it was because of financial issues.
Something the RNSC denies.
They have never explicitly denied rerouting the money (that I've read....and they've chose their words of denial very very carefully).
Lost in the yelling of this thread.....
1. The RNSC has already spent a bunch of money....much more than the dems.
2. I posted an article from Fox where they say the RNSC, in response the outcry, came back to the four races and are buying ad time again.
The last check with OpenSecrets shows:
Kelly having 30 million, having spent almost 30 million....he's all over the place.
Masters has les that 2 million having spend 3.5 million.....
Why is there such a huge freaking difference ?
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One other thing.
The 538 needle has not moved.
All of Kelly's spending isn't widening the gap.
Frankly, the hit pieces on Masters are pretty lame.
Masters is still down 8 points.
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Kelly having 30 million, having spent almost 30 million....he's all over the place.
Masters has les that 2 million having spend 3.5 million.....
Why is there such a huge freaking difference ?
Democrat megadonors are pouring cash into Kelly's campaign like Niagara Falls. Almost none of Mark Kelly's donations are from in-state.
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Thanks.
I'll look into it.
I don't mind adds since it makes money for some people (I think).
:shrug: Suit yourself. :beer:
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One other thing.
The 538 needle has not moved.
All of Kelly's spending isn't widening the gap.
Frankly, the hit pieces on Masters are pretty lame.
Masters is still down 8 points.
A lot of the gloss is off the Nate Silver rose. He had one great election and has been sliding down the partisan path ever since. Now, he's just a Zogby.
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A lot of the gloss is off the Nate Silver rose. He had one great election and has been sliding down the partisan path ever since. Now, he's just a Zogby.
Invariably polls cannot be trusted from mid summer to mid October as the professional painters try to influence favor, thinking to lead the electorate by the nose and get them on the bandwagon.
I would pay them no mind till the first or second week in October, when the statistical numbers need to drift back toward reality, less the pollster is too far off by the time the actual counts come in.
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Invariably polls cannot be trusted from mid summer to mid October as the professional painters try to influence favor, thinking to lead the electorate by the nose and get them on the bandwagon.
I would pay them no mind till the first or second week in October, when the statistical numbers need to drift back toward reality, less the pollster is too far off by the time the actual counts come in.
Things do typically change once it gets more serious.
However, they do have some "relative" value in that what they gauge either shifts or it doesn't. The accuaracy may be off, but the precision is pretty good.
That said, we can only hope they shift in Masters direction.
The polls have shown no "relative" change in the race following 30 million by Kelly's team.
Let's hope that is a good sign.
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Biden's approval ratings are in the tank.
I suspect those are pretty close to accurate.
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A lot of the gloss is off the Nate Silver rose. He had one great election and has been sliding down the partisan path ever since. Now, he's just a Zogby.
He's not bad when Trump isn't involved. Trump brought a lot of people out who never voted before.
Take him with a grain of salt like all the others. I follow RCP average, 538, Cook political report, etc. etc. These people aren't God and they were wrong. But in standard boring elections (where people like Trump don't run) they often aren't.
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He's not bad when Trump isn't involved. Trump brought a lot of people out who never voted before.
Take him with a grain of salt like all the others. I follow RCP average, 538, Cook political report, etc. etc. These people aren't God and they were wrong. But in standard boring elections (where people like Trump don't run) they often aren't.
Wave bye-bye to boring elections.
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Wave bye-bye to boring elections.
:shrug:
Trump won't live forever.
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:shrug:
Trump won't live forever.
Correct, but the Rats are on a never-ending search for the next Trump to blame all the world's ills upon.
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Correct, but the Rats are on a never-ending search for the next Trump to blame all the world's ills upon.
Yeah but he's pretty unique IMO. There won't be another of him in my lifetime. We might get conservative guys like Desantis and Cruz, but you and I know that they are conventional politicians. Trump was pure chaos.
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Yeah but he's pretty unique IMO. There won't be another of him in my lifetime. We might get conservative guys like Desantis and Cruz, but you and I know that they are conventional politicians. Trump was pure chaos.
...in a good way. happy77
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Trump was pure chaos.
I curse the day American men embraced soy milk ---
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I curse the day American men embraced soy milk ---
2% for me.
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Back to the topic.
We need Mark Kelly out of that seat.
But he's being funded out the backside.
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...in a good way. happy77
888high58888
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538 models now show a 30% chance of the GOP taking the senate.
That is up from 25%.
If it gets up over 40%, that means one or two the races has become competitive.
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Why? If the DNC gets the Senate, they’ll simply expand the Court by adding enough ideologically left “justices” to permanently remake the Constitution.
That will pretty much be the end of the U.S.A. in my book.
And I don't mean we'll just rename it.
We either divide it up or we are back in 1861.
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538 shows the latest poll to have Masters gaining.
The difference is now 6 points.
They still put Masters at a 25% chance of winning.
What's more encouraging is that Kelly has slipped below 50% in the last several polls.
Masters is still less than 10% of Kelly in terms of money.
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538 shows the latest poll to have Masters gaining.
The difference is now 6 points.
They still put Masters at a 25% chance of winning.
What's more encouraging is that Kelly has slipped below 50% in the last several polls.
Masters is still less than 10% of Kelly in terms of money.
Mitch the bitch Turtle thinks Master's doesn't have a chance, and thus less RNC money. Being allied to Trump will do that, you know.
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Mitch the bitch Turtle thinks Master's doesn't have a chance, and thus less RNC money. Being allied to Trump will do that, you know.
I am not so sure I agree.
What is needed is some comparison.
Kelly has more money than a lot of presidential contenders.
I think Masters has as much as one would normally expect....Kelly is just swimming in it.
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I am not so sure I agree.
What is needed is some comparison.
Kelly has more money than a lot of presidential contenders.
I think Masters has as much as one would normally expect....Kelly is just swimming in it.
What is needed is people to stop voting for the guy with the most money! There is a reason he has that money and it isn't because he works for you!
Polls :3:
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What is needed is people to stop voting for the guy with the most money! There is a reason he has that money and it isn't because he works for you!
In the natural, more money translates into more air time, more pollsters, more tours... more everything, which all translates to more exposure hitting exactly on the popularity nailhead.
But there comes a time when you can throw all the money you want and it won't make a damn bit of difference. See Liz Cheney as the latest poster child.
The money in the end is not the thing - If folks hit 'oh hell no!'... that will change the landscape against the money... Hence my continued mantra to 'throw the bastards out'... Until the popular opinion turns near unanimously against them, the money will make a difference.
Polls :3:
That's right.
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In the natural, more money translates into more air time, more pollsters, more tours... more everything, which all translates to more exposure hitting exactly on the popularity nailhead.
But there comes a time when you can throw all the money you want and it won't make a damn bit of difference. See Liz Cheney as the latest poster child.
The money in the end is not the thing - If folks hit 'oh hell no!'... that will change the landscape against the money... Hence my continued mantra to 'throw the bastards out'... Until the popular opinion turns near unanimously against them, the money will make a difference.
That's right.
The money can make a difference. See famous Tip O'Neil Quotes on the subject. It's always true, but even a ton of cash can't overcome a universal disdain for a politician.
The Laws of Diminishing Returns apply.
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The money can make a difference. See famous Tip O'Neil Quotes on the subject. It's always true, but even a ton of cash can't overcome a universal disdain for a politician.
The Laws of Diminishing Returns apply.
I wish people were willing to get more insulted. These pols are SERVANTS with their hand in the till.
But no... instead all that is swept under the rug, and it's all popularity contests to the tune of 'Fugue for Tinhorns'
I will never understand it.
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I wish people were willing to get more insulted. These pols are SERVANTS with their hand in the till.
But no... instead all that is swept under the rug, and it's all popularity contests to the tune of 'Fugue for Tinhorns'
I will never understand it.
I guess it depends on the price of "popularity?"
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The money can make a difference. See famous Tip O'Neil Quotes on the subject. It's always true, but even a ton of cash can't overcome a universal disdain for a politician.
The Laws of Diminishing Returns apply.
Totally true and I am hoping applys in Kelly's case.
Michael Bloomburg, a true dem in RINO clothing, barely bought the Mayor's race with 100 million (174 bucks a vote).......
100 MILLION....for a mayor's race.
And he still almost didn't make it.
Nevertheless, Masters has some headwinds to overcome and some extra cash won't hurt. I'll be donating soon.
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I guess it depends on the price of "popularity?"
In some cases....their very souls.
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But there comes a time when you can throw all the money you want and it won't make a damn bit of difference. See Liz Cheney as the latest poster child.
So true.
If she had reversed she could have recovered.
But she chose to double down.
Bye bye.
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I guess it depends on the price of "popularity?"
Same as here:
Aaron Lewis figgered it out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsQzw_Ax8Cw
And his conclusion is exactly why I will never understand it. :shrug:
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In some cases....their very souls.
I think in all cases.
'The Crossroads' are a very real thing.
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So true.
If she had reversed she could have recovered.
But she chose to double down.
Bye bye.
Entirely tuned to the wrong station... And turned up so loud she couldn't even hear her own demise coming.
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Entirely tuned to the wrong station... And turned up so loud she couldn't even hear her own demise coming.
I don't know how she couldn't.
They didn't just vote her out.....
They really really dumped her.
So, we can only hope that Kelly's big war fund only takes him so far.
The AZ GOP has a lot of work to do.
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The AZ GOP has a lot of work to do.
One thing they have in their favor... AZ proved cheating in the last election. AZ is pissed off. And AZ is super pissed off at the McCain't machine.
They are making ways to fix all that, and are filled with righteous anger. And there ain't much in this world that will stop a righteous man.
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One thing they have in their favor... AZ proved cheating in the last election. AZ is pissed off. And AZ is super pissed off at the McCain't machine.
They are making ways to fix all that, and are filled with righteous anger. And there ain't much in this world that will stop a righteous man.
Let's hope that anger spells votes.
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Let's hope that anger spells votes.
Agreed
One thing they have in their favor... AZ proved cheating in the last election. AZ is pissed off. And AZ is super pissed off at the McCain't machine.
They are making ways to fix all that, and are filled with righteous anger. And there ain't much in this world that will stop a righteous man.
That's a remarkably perceptive view of the sea in which I swim....
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It helps that Katie Hobbs is a moron.
Mark Kelly isn't much better.
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It helps that Katie Hobbs is a moron.
Mark Kelly isn't much better.
There is no denying Masters has the most difficult race. Kelly has a "McCain advantage," who was a Vietnam war hero and had a solid base of inattentive followers from both parties, while Kelly is a space "hero" with an equally brainless bunch of fanbois. It remains to be seen if Kelly has that pull among Republican voters, because I honestly don't know right now.
The reason Kelly got elected was Trump's foolish endorsement of Martha McSally (who had already lost the Senate race against Sinema). There were better candidates.
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There were better candidates.
Where are they hiding ?????
I mean, Sinema is up in two years.
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Where are they hiding ?????
I mean, Sinema is up in two years.
Daniel McCarthy would have been good.
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Daniel McCarthy would have been good.
O.K.
"would have been".
Is there a chance he "could be" ? Is he around ?
Others we should search out ?
I've met David Farnsworth. He seems like a good man.
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O.K.
"would have been".
Is there a chance he "could be" ? Is he around ?
Others we should search out ?
I've met David Farnsworth. He seems like a good man.
I like Farnsworth too, so happy he stomped on that worm Bowers in the Primary. Not to pry, but what LD are you in these days? I want to see who you have running....
McCarthy did reasonably well in that Primary (I voted for him), but he was running against a Trump endorsed candidate, an endorsement that really pissed me off. He's very conservative, but he had a falling our with the State GOP and probably won't run again.
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That's a remarkably perceptive view of the sea in which I swim....
I have to respect it. Even if it fails, it is a righteous attempt to correct it within the will of the people.
Compared to Georgia, as an instance, where Republicans in charge are stepping on attempts of the people to get to the bottom of the same sort of thing. We have been shown voluminous evidence, and Georgia Republican representatives have chosen to be complicit.
That's a big difference, and AZ deserves my support. :beer: :patriot: :seeya:
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I'm a total outsider to Arizona.
But from where I am, it looks like Kari Lake will squeak by to win her race.
Mr. Masters, however a good show he puts up, is gonna lose.
I call 'em as I see 'em.
And that's how I see these two...
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I like Farnsworth too, so happy he stomped on that worm Bowers in the Primary. Not to pry, but what LD are you in these days? I want to see who you have running....
McCarthy did reasonably well in that Primary (I voted for him), but he was running against a Trump endorsed candidate, an endorsement that really pissed me off. He's very conservative, but he had a falling our with the State GOP and probably won't run again.
No worries.
I was in 16 up until they realigned. That was how I met Farnsworth. Now I am in 15.
The only one I know is Jaqueline Parker, running for house. She seems pretty good.
The senate candidate (Jake Hoffman) and other house person (Neal Carter) I know nothing about.
I do have the name of the LD15 chair, but I have not reached out to her yet. I will wait until after the dust clears (after November).
BTW: I have only started "being" in AZ more than I was out of AZ. Been a long time coming.
***********************
So, what was McCarthy's issue ?
This used to happen in Kansas. There would be all this interplay and someone would get primaried or be asked to step aside so someone else could run....and they would fade away. And the state party never reached out to them. I was like WTH ? These are people who want to be involved. We need to keep them engaged and part of the machinery.
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I like Farnsworth too, so happy he stomped on that worm Bowers in the Primary. Not to pry, but what LD are you in these days? I want to see who you have running....
McCarthy did reasonably well in that Primary (I voted for him), but he was running against a Trump endorsed candidate, an endorsement that really pissed me off. He's very conservative, but he had a falling our with the State GOP and probably won't run again.
One other person I met was Kelly Townsend. My guess is that she was more moderate and really didn't fit well with conservatives. That was just my take.
She lost a primary to Wendy Rogers (who I've never met....but clearly got a lot of press in 2020).
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I'm a total outsider to Arizona.
But from where I am, it looks like Kari Lake will squeak by to win her race.
Mr. Masters, however a good show he puts up, is gonna lose.
I call 'em as I see 'em.
And that's how I see these two...
Wrong.
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I'm a total outsider to Arizona.
But from where I am, it looks like Kari Lake will squeak by to win her race.
Mr. Masters, however a good show he puts up, is gonna lose.
I call 'em as I see 'em.
And that's how I see these two...
Did Masters really say he wanted to fire all the generals because they were left-wing and replace them with conservative Colonels ?
It's been reported all over the place.
Supposedly there are news clips.
Still looking.
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It's not looking good for Masters.
The needle hasn't moved for him in the polls.
Kelly is sporting 10X the bank account (52 million......52 million for a senate seat really ???)
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I don't know how she couldn't.
They didn't just vote her out.....
They really really dumped her.
So, we can only hope that Kelly's big war fund only takes him so far.
The AZ GOP has a lot of work to do.
All Liz needed to do was look at the numbers on the 2020 election for her home State. Offend that many voters, that proportion of the electorate, and it doesn't matter who you are, you're going down in flames. She indicated she had 'Beltway Fever' and instead of chilling on that, turned up the heat and it proved (politically) terminal.
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Kelly is sporting 10X the bank account (52 million......52 million for a senate seat really ???)
How was Kelly able to raise $52 million after only two years in the Senate?
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How was Kelly able to raise $52 million after only two years in the Senate?
Out of State contributions.
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It looks like that money is going to sink Masters.
Bummer.....whose up to take on Sinema in 2 years ?
I have not heard anyone pushing for the spot.
And I hope Martha McSalley isn't pushing for the part.
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One month out.
Last poll ?
Masters gets creamed.
No joy in Muddeville
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How was Kelly able to raise $52 million after only two years in the Senate?
That's a little over $7 spent for every man, woman and child in the state... And many of the ads are downright lies...
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One month out.
Last poll ?
Masters gets creamed.
No joy in Muddeville
I don't recall how many times I've asked you to stop following the polls. They aren't measuring you, they are trying to persuade you.
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One month out.
Last poll ?
Masters gets creamed.
No joy in Muddeville
Its the John Glenn effect......
Good astronaunt, but an empty suit when comes to being a senator.
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Its the John Glenn effect......
Good astronaunt, but an empty suit when comes to being a senator.
Glenn was a disappointment in many ways.
Kelly has been more than that.
But what is more important is the blatant power grab by those "in charge".
The whole idea of a senator spending that much money is beyond me. But that is what lengths people will go to in order to push their "agenda".
Kelly isn't even a good puppet. He's way to transparent.
Problem is.....Masters does not represent anything "bring and shiney". He's just "not Kelly".
His message isn't lost due to the lack of money. His message just isn't that great.
I'll be voting for him. But I haven't been all that enthusiastic about him.
Lake is a different story.
She's got command of things.....if dufus Hobbs didn't have the "She's with Trump" message, she's be a completely empty suite.
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Did you watch the "Debate" last night, @HikerGuy83?
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Looks like the republicans will not win the senate but it may not matter if Putin Nukes D.C.
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Looks like the republicans will not win the senate but it may not matter if Putin Nukes D.C.
Will likely be close...
From my opinion and analysis...
From RCP, with a 47-46 R lead, and 7 tossups....
GA- I think the slime sticks to Walker- Warnock in a squeeker. D hold
AZ- Masters should be destroying this dufous, but for some reason this bullshit aura of being an astronut hero is working . Kelly in a close one. D hold
NH- Bolduc is putting up a valiant effort, but honestly this is blue territory, and Hassan sadly holds- D hold
NC- RCP has this as a dead heat, but I think Budd pulls away, and keeps this in the GOP column. R hold
NV- Incumbant hasn't led in a poll all season, plus NV has been in-proportionally killed by Pedo Joe's agenda. Laxalt wins. R pickup
WI- Johnson has momentum, and this won't be as close as they think. R hold
Senate rides on PA-
Stupid brain dead radical effectively uses the Biden campaign strategy laying low, plays rope a dope, and exploits OZ's weakness of being be an out of stater, and serving in the Turkish army over US army. Sadly, I am thinking this is a D pickup.
Based on this... Senate 50-50..... No change.
Trump's giving us Oz and Walker is coming back to bite us in the ass.
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Catfish prognosticates:
"Based on this... Senate 50-50..... No change. "
My predictions, posted on 9.2.22:
https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,479458.msg2703899.html#msg2703899
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Did you watch the "Debate" last night, @HikerGuy83?
I watched part of it on YouTube.
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GA- I think the slime sticks to Walker- Warnock in a squeeker. D hold
Walker isn't a great candidate....but Warnock is a real loser.
If he wins, I'll be worried about things in general.
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From my post (2) earlier.....
After Walker's implosion the past 48 hours,Warnock will not win in a squeeker. His margin wil now be 5-10.
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Walker isn't a great candidate....but Warnock is a real loser.
If he wins, I'll be worried about things in general.
The average voter is not that informed, and has the attention span of a 6 year old.
The dims pulled out all the stops, and ambushed this terribly flawed candidate
And a note to DJT..... If you want to be that big of an influence in the GOP, do a better damned job in vetting our candiates so we aren't stuck with disasters like Oz and Walker.
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The average voter is not that informed, and has the attention span of a 6 year old.
The dims pulled out all the stops, and ambushed this terribly flawed candidate
And a note to DJT..... If you want to be that big of an influence in the GOP, do a better damned job in vetting our candiates so we aren't stuck with disasters like Oz and Walker.
Interesting comment....
It's one of the reasons I wish DJT would just go away. He was the right guy at the right time in 2016.
He could have been the right guy in 2020, but frankly he's been a disaster since he lost. And his losing wasn't that bad in retrospect. It revealed the democrats for what they are.
Much better Biden be in office when Roe is overturned.
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But this thread is about Masters.
We know Kelly is a disaster.
Masters has the vote of the right, but he seems bent on irritating the middle. He's got enough going against him (with some of those old videos and his original position on abortion....which he changed) that he needs to focus on HIS message. There were good statements made during the debate that somewhat caught me off-guard. 1st time I'd heard him tout some of it. Should have been doing it all along and not just attacking Kelly.
There are people who need hope and some sense of leadership.
Kelly's ads are actually better in that regard.
And it's where Lake is doing a good job...in presenting HER vision of the future and what SHE is going to be working for. Much more coherent and "in control".
We'll see how it plays out...in less than 30 days.
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From my post (2) earlier.....
After Walker's implosion the past 48 hours,Warnock will not win in a squeeker. His margin wil now be 5-10.
Well, the skeleton in the closet wasn't the accusation from the Daily Beast.
It was, apparently the dam bursting affect his response has had on his son.
Wow.
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I had wondered why McConnell's PAC pulled money out of Arizona and sent it to Georgia. I realize now that McConnell knew how to control Walker's vote.
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I just watched the debate, and Mark Kelly was atrocious. McConnell needs to go all-in on this race --- dems are not getting a huge margin from hispanics in 2022. In addition, there are competitive house seats at stake.
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I just watched the debate, and Mark Kelly was atrocious. McConnell needs to go all-in on this race ---
McConnell and his SuperPAC have already abandoned Blake Masters (since he can't count on his vote for Senate GOP Leader). Fortunately though, the NRSC (which McConnell doesn't control) is helping to fill the gap.
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I see some adds that attack Kelly, but I don't see much (and I certainly don't claim to see them all....so there is much I could be missing....but if I am missing it....so are others) about Masters and his positions.
And the things I see are not very exciting.
I think the GOP is just handing this one back to Schumer.
What happens in 2024 ?
We need to be working on that NOW !!!
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I just watched the debate, and Mark Kelly was atrocious. McConnell needs to go all-in on this race --- dems are not getting a huge margin from hispanics in 2022. In addition, there are competitive house seats at stake.
Kelly didn't do bad during the debate.
However, those places where Masters could gain advantage seem to be ignored.
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GOP wins AZ, GA, NV, OH, PA, WI. Net +3.
Wildcards: NH, WA, AK (anyone but Murkowski).
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GOP wins AZ, GA, NV, OH, PA, WI. Net +3.
Wildcards: NH, WA, AK (anyone but Murkowski).
Don't want to waste the buzz, but I'm just not optimistic, knowing the dims ability to successfully cheat. 2020 was just a test balloon. In two years they have perfected the craft..... Especially when it is allowed for a few select races.
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Don't want to waste the buzz, but I'm just not optimistic, knowing the dims ability to successfully cheat. 2020 was just a test balloon. In two years they have perfected the craft..... Especially when it is allowed for a few select races.
Someone's been at the dispensary toooooo long.
It will take a freaking miracle for the gop morons to win the senate.
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Taking the Senate won't be that difficult. Preventing GOP Senators from voting with the Dems? That's the impossible part.
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Back to the point of the thread.
Masters is going to get flushed.
He's not a great candidate.
He's getting waxed on the money side.
We need to be ready in 2024.
I like Sinema, but I'd rather we have a conservative (a true conservative....Sinema is more conservative that many GOPers) in there.
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Someone's been at the dispensary toooooo long.
It will take a freaking miracle for the gop morons to win the senate.
???
I basically agreed, due to the wild card of electoral theft, and you insulted me by calling me a pot head?
Take a Hiker..... :cool:
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???
I basically agreed, due to the wild card of electoral theft, and you insulted me by calling me a pot head?
Take a Hiker..... :cool:
Don't let the troll get under your skin @catfish1957
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Back to the point of the thread.
Masters is going to get flushed.
He's not a great candidate.
He's getting waxed on the money side.
We need to be ready in 2024.
I like Sinema, but I'd rather we have a conservative (a true conservative....Sinema is more conservative that many GOPers) in there.
Not by money that originated within AZ.
The only poll that matters is on Nov 8th.
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538 gives Trafalgar an A- rating, and they have Mark Kelly by a point. It's going to be very close.
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???
I basically agreed, due to the wild card of electoral theft, and you insulted me by calling me a pot head?
Take a Hiker..... :cool:
Many apologies.....
I was referencing the poster you were quoting.
Sorry.
But I will be on the Pass Mountain trail this Saturday. :beer:
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538 gives Trafalgar an A- rating, and they have Mark Kelly by a point. It's going to be very close.
That would be amazing.
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538 gives Trafalgar an A- rating, and they have Mark Kelly by a point. It's going to be very close.
Average separation is 3.5 points which means the needle has move significantly.
Wonder if we can get some of the left wing idiots to pledge to move to CA if Lake/Masters win ? That or move to Washington state where that total moron Murray can represent them.
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Average separation is 3.5 points which means the needle has move significantly.
Wonder if we can get some of the left wing idiots to pledge to move to CA if Lake/Masters win ? That or move to Washington state where that total moron Murray can represent them.
Maybe Murry can. She's in a tight race too, unexpectedly.
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Masters is Trump endorsed and an election denier.
The word is that the democrats crossed lines to vote for the Trump endorsees so that they would win primaries and be easier to defeat in the general.
That is just the scuttle I've read. Don't know if it is true.
Looks like that was a failed dem strategy everywhere it was implemented!
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Maybe Murry can. She's in a tight race too, unexpectedly.
In some ways I hope she stays.
If they get some intelligent left wingers in there....we could be in trouble.
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In some ways I hope she stays.
Words fail me. There is no way anyone other than a DailyKos-troll DU-disciple would post on this site that they prefer Patty Murray in the Senate over a Conservative Republican.
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Maybe Murry can. She's in a tight race too, unexpectedly.
'Unexpected' is an understatement by an order of magnitude.
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Kelly tops Masters by 6 points in Arizona Senate race: poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3712213-kelly-tops-masters-by-6-points-in-arizona-senate-race-poll/
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'Unexpected' is an understatement by an order of magnitude.
538 says the race isn't so tight.
I guess it depends on who you believe.
Murray is an idiot. But Washington is never going to elect a republican senator. Better an idiot who can't do much damage than a true left wing change advocate who could make things messy.
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Kelly tops Masters by 6 points in Arizona Senate race: poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3712213-kelly-tops-masters-by-6-points-in-arizona-senate-race-poll/
I have a work colleaugue who listens to the radio.
I was in his office when Sean Hannity was calling the race a draw.
It's amazing.
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538 says the race isn't so tight.
I guess it depends on who you believe.
Murray is an idiot. But Washington is never going to elect a republican senator. Better an idiot who can't do much damage than a true left wing change advocate who could make things messy.
As I said elsewhere, the mere possibility of upending Murray is an astonishment.
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As I said elsewhere, the mere possibility of upending Murray is an astonishment.
True that.
It's almost as bad as Alan Cranston in CA. I used to scratch my head and question....how, in a state of 35 million (at the time) is this the best we can do.
Murray is probably related to him.
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Arizona Senate race: Libertarian candidate drops out, endorses Blake Masters
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/arizona-senate-race-libertarian-candidate-drops-out-endorses-blake-masters/ar-AA13C49d
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Arizona Senate race: Libertarian candidate drops out, endorses Blake Masters
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/arizona-senate-race-libertarian-candidate-drops-out-endorses-blake-masters/ar-AA13C49d
Good to see. Too bad he didn't commit before early voting.
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The Libertarian was averaging 4%. I don't understand why they bothered to field a candidate when Blake Masters is the closest thing they are going to have from the fiscal side of things, as well as foreign policy.
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The Libertarian was averaging 4%. I don't understand why they bothered to field a candidate when Blake Masters is the closest thing they are going to have from the fiscal side of things, as well as foreign policy.
For the same reason I quit Republicans. Your 'closest thing' is nowhere near good enough... and usually a damnable lie.
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For the same reason I quit Republicans. Your 'closest thing' is nowhere near good enough... and usually a damnable lie.
Usually, but all victories are incremental, and Blake Masters is on the fringe of politics in Arizona. Libertarians have a tendency for self-harm by obsessing with ideological purity. The socialists are glad to move the ball down the field one inch at a time. The AZ Libertarians probably should have given Masters a chance in 2022, and nominate a candidate in 2028 if he strayed too far.
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Usually, but all victories are incremental
[...]
I have been told that my whole life... For nearly nothing.
Libertarians have a tendency for self-harm by obsessing with ideological purity.
Yeah... whatever. Principled Conservatives are painted with that same damn brush.
The socialists are glad to move the ball down the field one inch at a time.
LOL! No... They move the ball down the field like a freight train. In HUGE leaps and bounds. And rarely fail. Even when out of power.
The AZ Libertarians probably should have given Masters a chance in 2022, and nominate a candidate in 2028 if he strayed too far.
Nonsense. IOW, reject their own who stand upon their platform for more vapid promises from Republicans? Everybody is a Conservative during election. Every one of them says all the right things to get into office. And you expect blind faith in those snake charmers?
You know, Conservative libertarians used to be represented in the Republican party. Goldwater. That's the stuff that even more liberal libertarians can find agreement with. There ain't enough Goldwater (or Reagan) left in the Republican party to amount to a fart in a windstorm. If you want libertarians (and Conservatives) to come your way, it takes representing them. REALLY.
I have nothing against Masters, except that his name sounds like an action figure. The point remains. Your closest thing is no where good enough. And the lie that it will ever change was threadbare twenty years ago.
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You know, Conservative libertarians used to be represented in the Republican party. Goldwater. That's the stuff that even more liberal libertarians can find agreement with. There ain't enough Goldwater (or Reagan) left in the Republican party to amount to a fart in a windstorm. If you want libertarians (and Conservatives) to come your way, it takes representing them. REALLY.
Even Goldwater was unworthy. The Libertarians fielded a candidate as soon as they could (1980) and he nearly lost reelection. I used to be involved with the libertarians, but they tend to have unrealistic ideas and pathologies like Ayn Rand (who also repudiated Goldwater, incidentally).
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Even Goldwater was unworthy. The Libertarians fielded a candidate as soon as they could (1980) and he nearly lost reelection. I used to be involved with the libertarians, but they tend to have unrealistic ideas and pathologies like Ayn Rand (who also repudiated Goldwater, incidentally).
Libertarians are just as divided as any... Their conservatives were IN the Republican party. No more.
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Arizona Senate race: Libertarian candidate drops out, endorses Blake Masters
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/arizona-senate-race-libertarian-candidate-drops-out-endorses-blake-masters/ar-AA13C49d
This actually seems like a big deal.
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This actually seems like a big deal.
@HikerGuy83
Well. The press coverage is a plus. But when did early voting start in AZ?
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@HikerGuy83
Well. The press coverage is a plus. But when did early voting start in AZ?
I could be wrong but I think there is only absentee voting right now.
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That is just the scuttle I've read.
On DummieUnderground.
Don't know if it is true.
Yet you didn't hesitate to post it here.
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@HikerGuy83
Well. The press coverage is a plus. But when did early voting start in AZ?
October 12th.
And your point is well made.
We can only hope it helps Masters out.
It is amazing that the RCP shows four pick ups in the senate for the GOP and that includes Masters. Not sure how that works....since Kelly is still shown (by RCP) as being ahead in the polls.
But I'll certainly take it.
Every poll shown on 538 has Kelly leading....but some of them by less than 2 points. I still don't get why they include those rubes over at Center Street.
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Don't see Masters pulling this one out.
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October 12th.
And your point is well made.
We can only hope it helps Masters out.
It is amazing that the RCP shows four pick ups in the senate for the GOP and that includes Masters. Not sure how that works....since Kelly is still shown (by RCP) as being ahead in the polls.
But I'll certainly take it.
Every poll shown on 538 has Kelly leading....but some of them by less than 2 points. I still don't get why they include those rubes over at Center Street.
RCP assumed that the polls were biased against Republicans, but I think a lot of polls had already corrected for that.
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RCP assumed that the polls were biased against Republicans, but I think a lot of polls had already corrected for that.
O.K.
Thank you for that.
Polling has certainly lost it's flavor.
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Don't see Masters pulling this one out.
Probably not...but there are still about a half a million uncounted ballots. At this rate we'll run up against the Cert deadline.
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And that's the plan! Same with Kari unfortunately.
Where are the lawyers and the lawsuits?
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And that's the plan! Same with Kari unfortunately.
Where are the lawyers and the lawsuits?
Exactly.
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Probably not...but there are still about a half a million uncounted ballots. At this rate we'll run up against the Cert deadline.
This is unbelievable.
How did Maricopa not do EVERYTHING they could to ensure a tight fast election.
Given the history of the last two years, I am embarrassed for them.
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This is unbelievable.
How did Maricopa not do EVERYTHING they could to ensure a tight fast election.
Given the history of the last two years, I am embarrassed for them.
Again... the longer the window of counting, the easier the cheat.
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Again... the longer the window of counting, the easier the cheat.
Have to find out how many votes you need accurately first...
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Here's what is going on. With the voting machine issues, the scanners reject the ballots on the third attempt. At that point, the voter can either go to another machine (at another precinct) or the voter can submit their ballot as is and have an election official put it in a machine later. It is these ballots that are being manipulated now. If the ballots still don't work, then they go down as votes for Hobbs and Kelly.
When we went through this two years ago, there was a steady trend of red gains in the days after the election. (The only thing stopping it was a hard deadline set by Arizona law). This same red increase should be happening now. Yet the trend in heavily Republican areas is going blue. The election workers are essentially counting Lake/Masters votes as votes for Hobbs/Kelly.
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Also, 17,000 ballots were added to the total last night. Wednesday, Maricopa county had reported that there were 275,000 ballots that had been dropped off on election day. This morning, they said that number was 292,000. In other words, between election day and today, 17,000 ballots got added to the count.
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Here's what is going on. With the voting machine issues, the scanners reject the ballots on the third attempt. At that point, the voter can either go to another machine (at another precinct) or the voter can submit their ballot as is and have an election official put it in a machine later. It is these ballots that are being manipulated now. If the ballots still don't work, then they go down as votes for Hobbs and Kelly.
When we went through this two years ago, there was a steady trend of red gains in the days after the election. (The only thing stopping it was a hard deadline set by Arizona law). This same red increase should be happening now. Yet the trend in heavily Republican areas is going blue. The election workers are essentially counting Lake/Masters votes as votes for Hobbs/Kelly.
**nononono* 9999hair out0000 Same ole same ole method of cheating. Color me surprised.
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**nononono* 9999hair out0000 Same ole same ole method of cheating. Color me surprised.
This is unbelievable.
There should be a "swat" team of some kind that comes in when the idiots in charge can't get it done right or on time.
How do they explain this.
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Are there other states having these issues ?
Seems like we are the only one (We, being AZ, the state that became the center of controversy in 2020) that can't seem to run an election right.
Un-freaking-believable.
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This is unbelievable.
There should be a "swat" team of some kind that comes in when the idiots in charge can't get it done right or on time.
How do they explain this.
Joe needs to send in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys. *****rollingeyes*****
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Joe needs to send in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys. *****rollingeyes*****
Yes, he should.
That would pretty much convince everyone the election was a pile of poop.
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Well, it's over in the senate race.
Kelly pretty much cleans it up with 11% more votes than Masters.
It didn't just slip away.....it slid down the hill, out through the field, and into a sink hole.
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Finchem got stomped.
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AZ could have 6 of the 9 seats in the house.
To offset the giveaway to Kelly.
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Hate to pick this scab, but Masters got creamed.
He wasn't close.
The blathering about polling was all wrong.
We have anaother senate seat coming up in 2024 and from what I can tell we don't have anyone worth running.
WTH is wrong with the GOP ?
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Hate to pick this scab, but Masters got creamed.
He wasn't close.
The blathering about polling was all wrong.
We have anaother senate seat coming up in 2024 and from what I can tell we don't have anyone worth running.
WTH is wrong with the GOP ?
It was only 5%, which is a 2.5% swing, and that after being wildly outspent because Mitch pulled funds.
Masters actually did better than would normally be expected, even if the vote was on the up and up.
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It was only 5%, which is a 2.5% swing, and that after being wildly outspent because Mitch pulled funds.
Masters actually did better than would normally be expected, even if the vote was on the up and up.
Michael Bloomberg showed that money only goes so far.
While I won't says Masters was a "bad" candidate, his campaign wasn't that great.
It seems to start out with positions that were easily framed as extreme. He started backpeddling on some them and that wasn't lost to his opposition.
Many GOP candidates won.
Lake (if she winds up losing)....but barely lost.
Masters got hammered, by comparison.
I only bring this up because I have to wonder who is thinking about going against Sinema in 2024 and what they are doing to prep themselves to have a good shot at unseating her. I like Sinema, but I would prefer a solid conservative (and, of course, that is always a broad reaching term) in there instead.
Sinema barely won.....again, against a not-so-great candidate.
I think a good Republican candidate easily wins. But that candidate needs to be prepping now and the GOP needs to be learning from it's past mistakes in order to win.
Sinema is an incumbent which means she has some built in vitality. It will be interesting to see if her party goes after her and how she plans to run again in 2024. Either way, if we just show up with someone (which is how I see Masters coming onto the scene) it's not going to end well......again.
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Masters actually did better than would normally be expected, even if the vote was on the up and up.
I think this is a testament to just how many true Republicans there are in the state.
As I said above, Master's campaign had very little appeal beyond the base.
If you know you have that much "de facto" support just because you are Republican (and not a RINO....I certainly don't think Masters was that), you know you need to peel off others (including the McPain followers) to make up the difference.
Not an easy task, but the right candidate does it and wins.
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Michael Bloomberg showed that money only goes so far.
Presidential campaigns are a bit different bird. You at least need to keep relatively equal with your opponent in a typical campaign if for not other reason to get your name out there. Mitch pulling his money killed Masters.
Masters got hammered, by comparison.
Still talking about small margins. A 2.5% swing might be talking 5-10 votes per precinct.
And Masters made missteps early on no doubt. Kelly made his too. By the end Masters was running a good race, but he had no money. I think he was outspent 3-1 and only lost 5%. I don't know many candidates at the Senate level that have done that.
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Presidential campaigns are a bit different bird. You at least need to keep relatively equal with your opponent in a typical campaign if for not other reason to get your name out there. Mitch pulling his money killed Masters.
I was referencing Bloombergs 102 million spend for a 3rd term as mayor of New York.
He barely won. And it showed money only goes so far.
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And Masters made missteps early on no doubt. Kelly made his too. By the end Masters was running a good race, but he had no money. I think he was outspent 3-1 and only lost 5%. I don't know many candidates at the Senate level that have done that.
Masters was not a good candidate....period.
That he only lost by 5% tells you something.
I don't believe it was spending that cost him.
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Masters was not a good candidate....period.
That he only lost by 5% tells you something.
I don't believe it was spending that cost him.
Kelly's ads/lies went unanswered - entirely due to spending.
"The ex-astronaut, who is married to former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, is a prodigious fundraiser, and his campaign had raised more than $79 million and spent more than $73 million as of mid-October, when the most recent campaign finance reports were due.
By comparison, Masters had raised only $12 million and spent about $9.4 million."
https://www.azmirror.com/blog/the-arizona-senate-race-was-the-3rd-most-expensive-of-2022/
That's more than 7 to 1 in spending between the two.
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Kelly's ads/lies went unanswered - entirely due to spending.
"The ex-astronaut, who is married to former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, is a prodigious fundraiser, and his campaign had raised more than $79 million and spent more than $73 million as of mid-October, when the most recent campaign finance reports were due.
By comparison, Masters had raised only $12 million and spent about $9.4 million."
https://www.azmirror.com/blog/the-arizona-senate-race-was-the-3rd-most-expensive-of-2022/
That's more than 7 to 1 in spending between the two.
Missed my earlier post about Bloomberg ?
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Missed my earlier post about Bloomberg ?
Using an extreme to rebut another extreme dies not work. Bloomberg proved excessive spending doesn't work, and Blake Masters proved that zero funding loses the race too. The only commonality is both lost. The two being comparable could not be farther from the truth.
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Using an extreme to rebut another extreme dies not work. Bloomberg proved excessive spending doesn't work, and Blake Masters proved that zero funding loses the race too. The only commonality is both lost. The two being comparable could not be farther from the truth.
The last I checked, Masters spent 14.5 million on his campaign. I saw plenty of his adds not to mention 3rd party adds.
In doing a little reading, it seems the average senate winning senate campaign spent 11 million (which does not account for outside money). I don't know how much wash pushed into campaigns for Masters, but articles would have you believe it was several million.
So, sorry.....there was no zero spend unless you want to redefine some words for us.
And both Kelly and Bloomberg were extremes.
Or did Masters not spend 14.5 million as OpenSecrets reports.
In mid November, Masters went after McConnell for pulling adds saying that if McConnell had stayed in AZ, he'd (meaning Masters) would have won.
Nope....sorry Blake.
You NEVER moved the needle.
I doubt 100 million would have done the trick.
Farther from what (or whose) truth ?
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I did not see a single Masters ad. Not one, and I watch a lot. I guess that's life away from the big city geniuses.
You can go ahead and be happy about 6 more years of Mark Kelly, but I will not. Since Blake was a Federal candidate, this will never be rectified. McConnell remains pleased as punch, and we watch the Republic slip sliding away.
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I did not see a single Masters ad. Not one, and I watch a lot. I guess that's life away from the big city geniuses.
You can go ahead and be happy about 6 more years of Mark Kelly, but I will not. Since Blake was a Federal candidate, this will never be rectified. McConnell remains pleased as punch, and we watch the Republic slip sliding away.
For at least a month I saw endless Kelly ads on Discovery channel (the only channel I watch with ads) and zero Masters ads. They went unanswered including the claim that Masters was against any form of birth control. It was only in the last week before the election I saw anything for Masters. And most people had voted by then.
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The last I checked, Masters spent 14.5 million on his campaign. I saw plenty of his adds not to mention 3rd party adds.
In doing a little reading, it seems the average senate winning senate campaign spent 11 million (which does not account for outside money). I don't know how much wash pushed into campaigns for Masters, but articles would have you believe it was several million.
So, sorry.....there was no zero spend unless you want to redefine some words for us.
And both Kelly and Bloomberg were extremes.
Or did Masters not spend 14.5 million as OpenSecrets reports.
In mid November, Masters went after McConnell for pulling adds saying that if McConnell had stayed in AZ, he'd (meaning Masters) would have won.
Nope....sorry Blake.
You NEVER moved the needle.
I doubt 100 million would have done the trick.
Farther from what (or whose) truth ?
I guess I'm not following your logic here. Somehow Masters should have overcome the huge spending deficit if he had been a better candidate.
But you don't define why he was a bad candidate.
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I guess I'm not following your logic here. Somehow Masters should have overcome the huge spending deficit if he had been a better candidate.
But you don't define why he was a bad candidate.
It is my opinion that Masters, like many others so called "Bad" candidates before him, was only bad because he did not ask for or receive the swamp's approval to run.
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I guess I'm not following your logic here. Somehow Masters should have overcome the huge spending deficit if he had been a better candidate.
But you don't define why he was a bad candidate.
I have, in several places in this thread, pointed out where I thought he was weak.
His abortion video's and his own web-sites wording was used against him pretty heavily.
He then pulled the language from his site which only raised more eyebrows and allowed others to classify him as an opportunist.
There are several other things.
I certainly would have voted for him over Kelley (I had to vote in NM).
If the GOP runs someone like him against Sinema....kiss it good-bye.
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It is my opinion that Masters, like many others so called "Bad" candidates before him, was only bad because he did not ask for or receive the swamp's approval to run.
Thank you for the qualifier up front.
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You can go ahead and be happy about 6 more years of Mark Kelly, but I will not.
What are you talking about ?
Seriously.
Who is "HAPPY" about Mark Kelly ?
I'd like to know just what you are referencing.
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I guess I'm not following your logic here. Somehow Masters should have overcome the huge spending deficit if he had been a better candidate.
What does the spending equate to ?
As near as I can tell.....nothing.
Masters, never really moved the needle.
Those who were with him at the start, were with him in the end.
Kelly didn't sway them.
Just like Bloomberg found out. You can spend a battleship full of money to put out a crappy message. And you get the results of a crappy message.
So, yes....in the end. Masters, like McSally lost...not because of money. They were not great candidates and they inspired no-one.