Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
It has been said that currently, there are only two things that can persuade Putin to start real negotiations and stop the war:
1. If success is not certain;
2. If the price of success is too high.Currently:
1. Russia is convinced that Ukraine can be defeated, and it will take a little more pressure for us to crumble.
2. The price Russia is currently paying is acceptable to Putin.
3. Russia feels its impunity.
4. Putin has support.
For as long as Putin is convinced he can win, he will not back down.
In reality, this is a simplified view of the situation.
The key question is whether Putin makes the decisions about continuing or stopping the war by himself?
In my opinion, he doesn't make this decision himself.
The participation of North Korea, Laos in the war, and China's recent statements point that Putin is not currently a fully independent player.
Perspectives of the war's development need to be seen through the triangle of USA-EU-China relations.
If agreements are reached withing this triangle to stabilize the economic and geopolitical situation, and the war in Ukraine stops being a factor of exhausting Russia or Europe and being used as a card by different parties, then a real chance to stop the war will appear, along with Ukraine's integration into the European security system.
This will not mean an immediate stability and sustainable peace - the Russian war machine and military propaganda are working at full speed. Their inertia will take years, decades. Russia's multi-million army will not disappear, either, and Russians are not keen to see their soldiers returning home.
Thus, in the best case scenario, if the main players agree upon the rules of coexistence without a war, we might be facing decades of frozen confrontation and strengthening of European security.
In the worst case scenario, without agreements and with escalation, the world will face a war of previously unseen scale.
It is natural to wish for good news. But it must rely on realism. While we hope for the best, we must prepare for the worst.
2:23 PM · Jul 12, 2025 · 26.5K Views
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1944100385268150526
Recent Posts
