A third Trump impeachment looks inevitable, but what kind?
by Chris Stirewalt - 09/02/26 6:00 AM ET
As the final primaries wrap up and we head into the full gale of the general election campaign season, the consensus is that Republicans are all but certain to lose their very narrow House majority.
If you ask Nate Silver and his team, they’ll say there’s an 86 percent chance of Democratic control with the highest probability of a 15-seat majority for the blue team. The gang at Decision Desk HQ sees a slightly closer contest, forecasting a 66 percent probability that Democrats take over, with the fat part of their bell curve right around a 12-seat Democratic majority. But nobody seems to think that what amounts to a two-seat current majority for House Republicans will survive whatever is brewing up for this fall.
That’s a real bummer for Republicans, given that the GOP spent all that money and effort on their mid-decade gerrymandering blitz only to see it become their Maginot Line. If you look at the current ratings from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter or Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, you see that the GOP is only netting out three or four sure gerrymandered pickups — nowhere near enough to save them.
Certainly that’s how Washington is behaving. The closed-door meeting between Jared Kushner — President Trump’s son-in-law and ambassador without portfolio — and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) certainly suggests an air of Democratic inevitability. So does the capitulation from House Republicans on punting the rest of their legislative agenda until after the election.
How big a prospective Democratic House majority may be certainly matters, most of all to Jeffries. He’s going to be getting at least a half dozen more members of the “squad” or the Justice Democrats, or whatever you like to call the blue version of the Tea Party. They will be intent on making it as hard as possible for the would-be Speaker to get anything done. But if Democrats have a great year instead of just a good one, the extra seats will come from Republican-leaning swing districts likely to produce pragmatic new representatives.
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https://thehill.com/homenews/analysis/6062939-trump-third-impeachment-risks/
