2026 Tropical Weather Discussion

[Wingnut]

Any fault?  I'll Save the trouble and discontinue analysis.  I thought I was doing a favor here.

Keep updating the threats to the mainland.  The pacific rimmers can fend for themselves!

[jmyrlefuller]

Any fault?  I'll Save the trouble and discontinue analysis.  I thought I was doing a favor here.

Keep doing what you're doing. Like I said, I take the blame for not mentioning it. You're providing a valuable service here and I do appreciate it.

[jmyrlefuller]

Tropical Storm Edouard

Expected to affect eastern Texas (including the Houston metro) and parts of Louisiana, making landfall on the border between the two states tomorrow afternoon.

Rainfall forecast:

[jmyrlefuller]

Whether or not @catfish1957 decides to come back to this thread (and I hope he does), I am going to keep it pinned and alive as best as I can for the remainder of hurricane season so those who wish to discuss it may do so.

[berdie]

Tropical Storm Edouard

Expected to affect eastern Texas (including the Houston metro) and parts of Louisiana, making landfall on the border between the two states tomorrow afternoon.

Rainfall forecast:

Congrats to all that get this rain! We sure need it but it doesn't seem to be extending this far north.

[jmyrlefuller]

Congrats to all that get this rain! We sure need it but it doesn't seem to be extending this far north.

Keep in mind that this is just a snapshot over the next three days. This is a fairly slow-moving event so there's a strong chance it'll move further inland before it putters out or gets dragged into a cold front.

[catfish1957]

1 September 2026 update- Tropical Storm Eduoard

The 5th named storm of the year formed yesterday in the NW Gulf.  With bath water hot water in the Gulf of America, and spot ULL's (Upper Level Lows), sometimes you get spin ups of convection and storm formation.  This ULL transversed the Northern Gulf for three days, and hit a spot south of NOLA of relaxed upper level shear.  Resulting in a small storm size and severity, and at this point minor impact expected. 

Latest GFS run has the storm meeting NHC guidance as a T.S., or at very worst a minimum Cat 1 storm.  Storm will reach the TX/LA border about noon today.  I don't expect much T.S. winds far from the center, and only when it makes landfall.  These tiny storms have a history of unraveling at landfall.  I do find it somewhat odd that the NHC and Hydrological Center are seeing the biggest rainfall west of storm center.  I think maybe the Hydrological Center has not adjusted the numbers based on the slight course change explained during the last advisory.   Instead of a hit on Galvleston, it is more likely this will be a Lake Charles / Beaumont/ Port Arthur event.   Offical trend is WNW, but my 3 frame radar impression shows that bending to the NW. 

The last few frames of vis/IR sat loop seem to be showing the storm getting kind of raggedy, with less full convection around the CIC.  This might be a regeneration, but if I see a few more frames in the same trend, I got to think this thing is weakening a bit.

I would also be remiss, to not mention that the forecast for this thing, is to move at 200 miles in the next 3 days.  This could result is some local flooding in East Texas.  The GFS dissipates the low associated with Eduoard late tomorrow.  Deal is though, you don't need a closed low to create flooding conditions. I have seen 15" rains with tropical low remnants.    Nothing imminent with this, but something we should keep our eye on.  Overall, unless some strangely changes, the tangible impact will be limbs and power outages possible if you live near the Upper Texas or SW Louisiana coasts.

Elsewhere in the tropics, the ITCZ remains unusually quiet for this time of the year, with only one decent wave at about 20N 30W.  The NHC hasn't even assigned an Invest Number, so I guess they aren't so bullish on this developing.

[catfish1957]

Local TV radar that gives a good representation of Eduoard.  Notice the tongue of drier air (rain free mostly) that originates near Cameron?

That right now is helping keep Eduoard from strengthening.  The storm center is very evident on radar, and if you draw a line from @ 315 degrees (NW), you will see anticipated landfall. 

[catfish1957]

1 Sept 2026....10 a.m. Tropical Storm Eduoard update.

Well, don't ever say there are never surprises in the Tropics even with Hurricane Models on AI steroids..  Depsite my observations of weakening, the NHC has updated to have Eduoard strengthening to 50 mph, with a chance of it strengthening to a minimal Cat 1 before landfall. 

It is close though, and from my eye POV on radar it is about 30 miles south of Holly Beach, Louisiana.,  The radar signature isn't impressive, and the storm in size seems to be growing, much like you would see in a dissipating version.  There is no indication in any of NHC products that show this reach hurricane status, but apparently there remains a remote possibility since the following watches/warnings have been issued

Present watches/warnings from NHC site....

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar, Texas to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line

[catfish1957]

Seems we have seen an CIC (no eye) replacement/relocation in the past hour.  CIC is about 30 miles westward.  Center of storm should be hitting near Sabine Pass the next 15-30 minutes. 

And the track seems to bent back westward.  Not sure this is a CIC wobble, but if its a true turn, Galveston becomes more into play, and more opportunity.  In fact this could strafe the entire upper Texas coat.  NHC guidance still has it going inland, north of Houston, and into the Lakes tomorrow.

Update:  Landfall at 11:30.  CIC point was a few miles east of Sabine Pass, on the Louisiana side.  If a WNW direction is re-realized, this may skirt the coast.  But....   offical guidance has this heading NW toward North Houston, Conroe, etc.  as a messy wet Low. 

[jmyrlefuller]

Good to see you back, @catfish1957 .

[rustynail]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2094914203798638809

[catfish1957]

1 Sept 2026 5:00 pm Eduoard update....

Eduoard came ashore near Sabine earlier this afternoon with 60 mph winds.  Winds have decreased to 50, and Ed is just west of Port Arthur, moving NW at 7mph.  Seems about a 1/3 of the Beaumont Port Arthur Orange area has lost power according to the Entergy maps.

Expect slow weakening through tomorow as Ed seems to be in the heading about Lufkin, or parts a little westward. Areas near the path of the storm can expect up to 6-8" of rain by tomorrow

[catfish1957]

2 September 2026 Tropical Update and final Eduoard discussion.

Tropical Storm Eduoard is now a depression, and barely holding on the close low status.  Also still @35 mph, moving NNW.  Though this may be the last advisory as a named tropical entity, looking at the moisture profile, it is still a 90 mile diameter blob of pretty substantial convection in a fairly shearless environment.  If this holds together decently as the remnant low moves north. I expect some big frontal rains in the plains and midwest the next week or so.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, there are 2 waves 15N/55W, and 30N50W that might have some promise of development next week.  NHC has not assigned an Invest  Number yet, but the 30/50 wave is showing a slight tilt of a spin.  Just one VIs Sat shot, so we'll see.

Kudos again to the GFS for picking up Eduoard 48 hours before even being a low south of FL.  The GFS at least for this run, shows no hurricanes in the Atlantic.  OTOH, the EPAC....Eastern Pacific Basin continues to churn out major hurricanes that are teasing Baja. 
 

[Bigun]

2 September 2026 Tropical Update and final Eduoard discussion.

Tropical Storm Eduoard is now a depression, and barely holding on the close low status.  Also still @35 mph, moving NNW.  Though this may be the last advisory as a named tropical entity, looking at the moisture profile, it is still a 90 mile diameter blob of pretty substantial convection in a fairly shearless environment.  If this holds together decently as the remnant low moves north. I expect some big frontal rains in the plains and midwest the next week or so.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, there are 2 waves 15N/55W, and 30N50W that might have some promise of development next week.  NHC has not assigned an Invest  Number yet, but the 30/50 wave is showing a slight tilt of a spin.  Just one VIs Sat shot, so we'll see.

Kudos again to the GFS for picking up Eduoard 48 hours before even being a low south of FL.  The GFS at least for this run, shows no hurricanes in the Atlantic.  OTOH, the EPAC....Eastern Pacific Basin continues to churn out major hurricanes that are teasing Baja.

I've gone from possible 10"+ to not a drop yet in the space of less than 24 hours.

[catfish1957]

I've gone from possible 10"+ to not a drop yet in the space of less than 24 hours.

The storm seemed to take more of NW/NNW track as it approached the coast, instead of a more WNW/NW direction as it approached the coast as forecasted.   I really expected this thing to strafe the coast, and go inland at about Galveston, and then work inland towards the Hill Country. So instead the Beaumont area got more of the brunt. .   30 degrees divergence on a compass and a tropical system will do that. 

[catfish1957]

3 September 2026 Tropical Weather Update-

Remnants of Eduoard are persistent in NE Texas near Lufkin.  Got to admire his tenacity.  Even a day after expected disappation, there is some nice low level spin still generating a nice welcome rain for NE Texas. 

Elsewhere, I am interested, but I guess the NHC isn't yet, in another wave in the Northeast Gulf of America.  Looks a lot a like 'ol Ed.  I am going to wait for another 3 or 4 vis sat loops to see if there is any concern.  It might be just an unusual cluster of diurnal showers.  ....   There is a wave about 500 miles NE of the Antilles that is holding wave structure but is seeing a signifcant pre-frontal sheer.  Don't see much going on there.  There is also the most robust Cape Verde Low this season that just jetted off the African Coast @about 10N25W.   Cape Verde season has been a bust this season due to El Nino', Saharian dust intrusion, and higher usual sheer in hot beds of hurricane potential paths.

Synopsis of this morning's GFS Run.....   Atlantic Basin, extremely quite.  OTOH Very concerning is what the model shows September 11-18. At around September 11, A Cat 1 or 2-ish looking hurricane is going to hit the Southern Baja Coast.  Then model then has the storm persist 7 days, slowly reaching the US toward the end of the model run.   This scenario might be particular danger, even as the storm weakens for major flooding concerns in those areas not only prone to flooding, but the entire monsoon impacted folks out west.  A lot can and probably will change in this model, but this particular run might be problematic. 

[catfish1957]

There is a lot to hate about AI, but one of the wonderful benefits is that with so much power, the National Hurricane Center is able to improve their forecasting (path and strength) by easily 200%.  Good example, has any noticed how the bubbled paths have narrowed so much lately?  That's progress.

For those who might be interested, one aspect of several tropical evaluation is running the GFS tools.  Then you can see what I am reviewing the next 15 days.  it's not only a good tool for the Tropics, but with a good eye, you can get an idea of upcoming weather in CONUS.

Here is the link

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022121506&fh=126

Then:

(1) In upper right corner drop down, pick a recent Run
(2) Click on first data point (006) 6 hours after initiation
(3) Use the forward arrow in repetitive fashion to see each weather data point from Hour 6 to Hour 384.  (about 15 days)

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion - 4 September 2026

It'll be brief today.  Atlantic Basin Tropics are even quieter today than yesterday.  Those two waves that I discussed yesterday, have mostly fizzled  Gulf/Caribb.  looks clear.  GFS modeling took an interesting turn, and 3 takeaways of note:

1. On about the 11th it shows a 982Mb low hitting the New Foundland, Nova Scotia area,  Not sure if it is a tropical system or an early season Nor'Easter.
2. About the 18th, GFS shows a 1030Mb high reaching down and well into the Gulf.  That is a potent cold infusion. Remains to be seen if it is enough to cool the Gulf Waters and impedes further tropical systems, or does the High Moderate, and a tailing low forms off the front into the gulf, and into a hurricane,  Either can happen once we start getting later in the season
3. Good News @Cyber Liberty - That Baja hurricane and monsoon event I mentioned yesterday?  GFS has that curving westward before it even reaches Baja.  Again, things change by the day, but I hope this remains the end result.  We don't need any more flooding in the Southwest.

And last for any Hawaiian Briefers or vacationing Briefers  Lowell in the C-PAC has become a major hurricane, and is expecting to remain at a Cat 3/4 category as it passes the Islands.  Right Now, the western most islands are just outside the cone.  But remember, the Hawaiin Islands have only been hot once in recorded history by a major hurricane (Iniki 1992).  Kind  of scary to, that Lowell is following a pretty similar path to Inriki at this point.  If there is impact, it will be expected Monday or Tuesday. 

Fun Fact for fellow Texas Briefers.  There have been zero major hurricanes hit the Texas coast after September 30th.  October 1, is my end of season sigh of relief.

[jmyrlefuller]

Quick Pacific update:

LOWELL is currently forecast to pass directly over the western Hawaiian Islands, though its forecast track has shifted slightly eastward since my last look. It's currently a category 4 so even a near-miss could bring tropical-storm-force winds to Honolulu.

KARINA (no T) is forecast to miss Hawaii well to the north.

MARIE is running parallel to the West Coast a few hundred miles out to see, without any real danger to land. NHC notes it's running into dry air which is limiting development.

NHC is also forecasting another potential tropical storm off the western coast of Mexico, right behind Marie.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Update- 5 September 2026

Note @jmyrlefuller post above.  Hurricane force winds are 100 mi in diameter.  So even a glancing miss can have devastation for a location that makes recovery difficult.

In the Atlantic Basin, most remarkable sat images are coming from the ITCZ.  I have never seen it this quiet, it is like it evaporated.  Which is great news for everyone.  I am not ready to write off the Cape Verde Season, but I sure like the trend.

The GFS run had little change, except it significantly tempered the strength of the mid month front.  A 1030 Mb High reaching the Gulf in September.  I knew it was too good to be true.  And still, the model does not pick up any tropical lows, at least W of 60W.

[Cyber Liberty]

I'm confused about something:  How are there two "L" named storms in the Pacific?  Lala and Lowell?

[catfish1957]

I'm confused about something:  How are there two "L" named storms in the Pacific?  Lala and Lowell?

LaLa qualifes as a Typhoon being in Western Pacific. Typhoons have their own naming nomenclature.   

E-Pac and C-Pac are hurricanes, and each have their own ordered naming.  Lowell is a C-Pac storm,.
The entire Atlantic Basin has its own singular naming system. 

As far as it is managed,, the National hurricane Center will identify areas of convections and tropical lows, and then assign a 90-Something  "L"  as what they call an Investigation Number. 

If the storm continues to develop, and a closed low forms around the storm, a Depression is called.  Those also are assigned a number.
If further strengthening contnues, a Name is assigned when the storm has 39 mph sustained winds.  From there the Saffir Simpson system assigns Category 1-5 huricane status.  Cat1 means the storm has sustained winds of 74 mph.   These can progress to Cat 5, which are monsters, that in history have approached 200 mph.

[catfish1957]

Lowell update 2:00 pm CDT

Hawaii nervously hoping and waiting that the trough NW of the Island holds off pulling storm north.  Lowell is still generally moving west, but is expected due to the trough make a sharp turn northward.  How soon and abrupt the turn is absolutely critical to how badly the Western Islands are hit.  And I mean the contrast is amazingly drastic.  Even within the narrowed cone, if Lowell follows the Western side of the path.  150 miles west of Kauai means winds of about 40 mph.  50 miles and on the east side of the cone?  75-90 mph.   And even still, there is a decent chance this cone shifts east.  Then it could become much more worse,.

The next 2 advisories  are going to be critical to impact.  Fingers crossed the turn is delayed,. 

[Cyber Liberty]

LaLa qualifes as a Typhoon being in Western Pacific. Typhoons have their own naming nomenclature.   

E-Pac and C-Pac are hurricanes, and each have their own ordered naming.  Lowell is a C-Pac storm,.
The entire Atlantic Basin has its own singular naming system. 

As far as it is managed,, the National hurricane Center will identify areas of convections and tropical lows, and then assign a 90-Something  "L"  as what they call an Investigation Number. 

If the storm continues to develop, and a closed low forms around the storm, a Depression is called.  Those also are assigned a number.
If further strengthening contnues, a Name is assigned when the storm has 39 mph sustained winds.  From there the Saffir Simpson system assigns Category 1-5 huricane status.  Cat1 means the storm has sustained winds of 74 mph.   These can progress to Cat 5, which are monsters, that in history have approached 200 mph.

Thanks!

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion - 6 September 2026

No change from yesterday.  GFS does show some general low pressure persistence south of Cuba to north of the Bahamas about September 20.  No closed lows, just tons of convection, and general low, like a vigorous wave.  I also am a little concerned that a very strong front hitting the gulf at about that same time doesn't generate a Western Gulf Low.

Lowell update-  Pretty much following NHC guidance.  He was weakened to Cat 3 status, and is forecasted to remain near or at that level.  Tropical Storm Watches are hoisted for the west most islands.  The fact we have another 24 hours under our belt, and path bubble not further east.....   I won't say the extreme threat is over, but it has much improved.  In fact the west most reporting station now only has a 25% chance of receiving tropical force wind.  Hawaii is close to breathing a sigh of relief.

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 7 Sep 2026

After being quite quiet for a change, the GFS has a system entering the northern Caribbean from the East around the 20th., from there to the end of the model run (23rd) the storm heads north, then northeastern towards SW Florida,.  There isn't a Low Pressure assigned to the circulation, but with ohly 3 or 4 isobars, I am guessing Depression, or no larger than Tropical Storm Strength,  This path is typical when we start getting those strong fall fronts.  The High over the Midwest on about the 18th is a 1031Mb High (30.45 inches Mercury)

The ITCZ has one wave that looks a little more lively this morning at about 10N 45 W.  There also is a cigar shaped cluster of convection associated  wave in the Northern Gulf of Ameria, just off shore from Louisiana.  System is prob. too close to land, and seeing too much NE->SW shear to see any development. 

And as far as Lowell....  Bad news there, Storm is taking a more NNE trajectory than north.  The western islands of the chain are going see some substantial storm winds,

The West Most Island Kaui is expected to see strong tropical storm winds, with an outside chance of Hurricane Winds.  This is a storm with a large wind field, and in fact Honolulu is under a Tropical Storm Watch.  This one shouldn't be catastrophic, but it is going to mess up a lot of areas, and lots of power outages.