The Briefing Room
General Category => World News => Topic started by: To-Whose-Benefit? on December 24, 2017, 06:26:31 am
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zerohedge
Tyler Durden
Dec 23, 2017 7:00 PM
[excerpt]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-23/chinas-raging-against-dying-light-or-why-peak-employment-imminent (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-23/chinas-raging-against-dying-light-or-why-peak-employment-imminent)
Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,
China's working age population is clearly defined as those aged 16 to 50 years old for females (55 for "white collar" females) and 16 to 60 years old for males. China mandates retirement at these outer age limits. Perhaps of some interest should be that this working age population peaked in 2011 and has been declining since. This decline will continue indefinitely as China has a collapsing childbearing population (detailed HERE), net emigration (outflow), and a still decidedly negative birthrate.
There is no evidence to believe the working age declines will abate any decade soon. As the chart below shows, China's potential workforce will be shrinking indefinitely... and by 2030 China's potential workforce will be over 100 million fewer than the 2011 peak (an 11% decline)...and only further down from there.
China has one of the youngest average retirement ages in the developed world. On average, according to a recent study (HERE), Chinese leave the work force by age 55 compared to age 63 in the US (Norway has the latest average departure at age 67). So, perhaps China will be raising the retirement age to curb the ballooning 60+yr/old population entering retirement (chart below)? More on that later.
Graphs etc @ the link
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I don't see where a shrinking population is "bad" for China (any more than it will be so for Japan).
The place is overpopulated now, and could probably still have a booming economy with 2/3 or even half of its current population...