The Briefing Room
General Category => Science, Technology and Knowledge => Space => Topic started by: Elderberry on September 04, 2020, 01:51:49 am
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FR24 News 9/3/2020
Elon Musk aims to someday colonize Mars and, according to the billionaire, getting there is not the problem – surviving on the Red Planet will be difficult.
The SpaceX CEO shared the progress of the company’s Starship rocket at the Humans to Mars virtual summit, saying the craft was “making progress,†but also expressed concerns about building a base on the planet.
Musk suggested that building a self-sustaining city would be “difficult†and that there would be a number of dangers that settlers could face in developing the galactic civilization.
“I want to stress that this is a very difficult and dangerous and difficult thing,†Musk said.
“Not for the faint of heart. Good luck that you die. And it’s going to be tough, tough, but it’ll be pretty glorious if it works.
Elon Musk aims to someday colonize Mars and, according to the billionaire, getting there is not the problem – surviving on the Red Planet will be difficult. The SpaceX CEO shared the progress of the company’s Starship rocket at the Humans to Mars virtual summit, saying the craft was “making progress,†but also expressed concerns about building a base on the planet.
Musk has been keen to colonize Mars for years and hasn’t been shy about how he plans to get there.
The key to turning that dream into reality will be SpaceX’s massive Starship rocket, which has been tested and built at the company’s facilities in Boca Chica, Texas.
Based on its projections, SpaceX would need to build 1,000 rockets over a nine-year period to bring a million people to Mars.
“We’re making good progress,†Musk said, as CNBC reported.
Musk suggested that building a self-sustaining city would be “difficult†and that there would be a number of dangers that settlers could face in developing the galactic civilization. “I want to stress that this is a very difficult and dangerous and difficult thing,†Musk said. “Not for the faint of heart. Good luck that you die
More: https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/09/elon-musk-says-there-is-a-good-chance-you-will-die-on-mars-at-virtual-summit.html (https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/09/elon-musk-says-there-is-a-good-chance-you-will-die-on-mars-at-virtual-summit.html)
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We have already gone through some of the predicted (in science fiction) disasters that can befall space exploration, from launch pad explosions to transit accidents (Challenger) to vessels breaking up on reentry (Columbia). We may do all we can to anticipate and prevent these things, but sooner or later, there will be a failed colonization attempt, for whatever reason, likely a human factor.
It happened in the colonization of The New World, there is no reason it won't happen on New Worlds, where the environment is even more hostile, perhaps in ways we don't fully understand yet.
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I’ll take that bet, Elon. $10,000,000 says I won’t.
Make the check out to my next of kin.
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I don't get the fascination with Mars. First off you are sticking 100 people in a stainless steel can for close to a year. Can you imagine living in such a close space for a year? Food...water....human waste.....ughhhh. Elon needs to go first.
Secondly... Mars has a very HARSH environment. The atmosphere is 95% carbon dioxide. In winter the average temperature is -80 degrees F.
So once you get to Mars you still have to live in a stainless steel can for the rest of your life. Boy that sounds like fun.
Yet humans live in places where winter temps often get to -40, -50, -60 degrees F, just in North America. I have worked in temperatures from 122 above zero to -60. When it is that cold outside, yes, you stay in whatever warm place you can as much as possible, but dress for the elements (or lose skin or more to them). For most, life is a series of boxes, anyway. In cities, the apartment box, the cab/train/bus box, the office box...how many of those folks even look up at the sky (sure mark of a tourist in some places).
Yes, the box would be crowded, providing reason to find a way to make more livable space and incentive to scavenge or process the needed materials locally.
Adapt, improvise, overcome. It's how humans roll.
If we aren't outside our comfort zone, we are not making progress.
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hmmm, wonder if Daniel Boone or Lewis and Clarke knew they could die?
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Yet humans live in places where winter temps often get to -40, -50, -60 degrees F, just in North America. I have worked in temperatures from 122 above zero to -60. When it is that cold outside, yes, you stay in whatever warm place you can as much as possible, but dress for the elements (or lose skin or more to them). For most, life is a series of boxes, anyway. In cities, the apartment box, the cab/train/bus box, the office box...how many of those folks even look up at the sky (sure mark of a tourist in some places).
Yes, the box would be crowded, providing reason to find a way to make more livable space and incentive to scavenge or process the needed materials locally.
Adapt, improvise, overcome. It's how humans roll.
If we aren't outside our comfort zone, we are not making progress.
Still and all... Better to populate beneath the sea where we literally cannot live, but would have a chance in hell of rescue, to work things out, rather than far away Mars.
Seems a fevered dream to me.
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I’ll take that bet, Elon. $10,000,000 says I won’t.
Make the check out to my next of kin.
Probably my grand children won't either. Nor theirs. Not in any appreciable way. Even a populated moon base is still well beyond our reach.
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I'd rather go to Mars alone in the spirit of the early New World trappers.
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Probably my grand children won't either. Nor theirs. Not in any appreciable way. Even a populated moon base is still well beyond our reach.
Im still waiting for the promises of the 60s to be fulfilled as depicted on my grade school lunchbox - jet packs, flying cars and space travel in first class comfort.
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Im still waiting for the promises of the 60s to be fulfilled as depicted on my grade school lunchbox - jet packs, flying cars and space travel in first class comfort.
Well, we got flip phones (communicators) and tablets (tri-corder) and between the two, something approaching a universal translator in a babelfish kinda way... :shrug:
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I'd rather go to Mars alone in the spirit of the early New World trappers.
Being a 'new world' trapper is still possible, and more conceivable. :shrug:
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Well, we got flip phones (communicators) and tablets (tri-corder) and between the two, something approaching a universal translator in a babelfish kinda way... :shrug:
But the most important of all - Hypospray - we don't have. Still get the damn needle.
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But the most important of all - Hypospray - we don't have. Still get the damn needle.
YES. And doors with that pneumatic 'swish' sound...
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The problem with Mars is there is very little to sustain life there. No plants and no animals. We'll have to bring whatever it is that feeds us there.
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"Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make!"
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"Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make!"
:silly:
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Still and all... Better to populate beneath the sea where we literally cannot live, but would have a chance in hell of rescue, to work things out, rather than far away Mars.
Seems a fevered dream to me.
How far down you going? Bends, decompression, Rapture of the Deep, still can't breathe what's outside, and in the water, there are things that will eat you, dead or alive.
Mars isn't for the faint of heart, (well, neither option is) and I can see possible problems with the establishment of self-sustaining human populations off planet (or anywhere outside the immediate vicinity of any controlling power) which will be inevitable, but at least it would let us unworthy humans survive (if we can) if the final fit of aggression happens down here.
Mars has some resources, others would need to be brought in, either from the asteroid belt, or from other sources. The question is, and I think you know the answer, one of having a frontier which can credibly be describes as dangerous, requiring all the skills and determination of any on virtually any frontier, facing unique challenges, and permitting humans to rise above what has ever been the equivalent of video game slobs in their grandmother's basement. Whether you like Teddy Roosevelt or not, he went from a skinny Easterner to a respectable man in the rough breaks of Western ND, and frontiers seem to bring out the best in men that might not otherwise find that. Frankly, now, that describes much of the human race in developed countries, relying more on skill with rule books and distortion and guile than their brains, skills, and divine providence against the forces of nature itself. That might just give humanity, or parts of it, new respect for Our Creator as well.
I gotta admit, if I had to choose, I'm just no longer very tolerant of high humidity, which might sound odd coming from someone who grew up where it was commonly 99%. A dry cold is easier to handle than damp.
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How far down you going? Bends, decompression, Rapture of the Deep, still can't breathe what's outside, and in the water, there are things that will eat you, dead or alive.
Doesn't matter how deep. Functionally closed off from atmosphere, so you have to make your own... Deep enough and you are simulating low light or no light conditions, so you have to make your own... All of the conditions are substantially present to simulate off-world problems... Yet if failure (of a non-catastrophic type) occurs, rescue is a helluva lot closer. A functional underwater city, wholly self-contained, Is a better shot than Mars. Every bit the 'frontier', every bit as daunting, and right in the back yard.
Mars isn't for the faint of heart, (well, neither option is) and I can see possible problems with the establishment of self-sustaining human populations off planet (or anywhere outside the immediate vicinity of any controlling power) which will be inevitable, but at least it would let us unworthy humans survive (if we can) if the final fit of aggression happens down here.
Mars has some resources, others would need to be brought in, either from the asteroid belt, or from other sources. The question is, and I think you know the answer, one of having a frontier which can credibly be describes as dangerous, requiring all the skills and determination of any on virtually any frontier, facing unique challenges, and permitting humans to rise above what has ever been the equivalent of video game slobs in their grandmother's basement. Whether you like Teddy Roosevelt or not, he went from a skinny Easterner to a respectable man in the rough breaks of Western ND, and frontiers seem to bring out the best in men that might not otherwise find that. Frankly, now, that describes much of the human race in developed countries, relying more on skill with rule books and distortion and guile than their brains, skills, and divine providence against the forces of nature itself. That might just give humanity, or parts of it, new respect for Our Creator as well.
I gotta admit, if I had to choose, I'm just no longer very tolerant of high humidity, which might sound odd coming from someone who grew up where it was commonly 99%. A dry cold is easier to handle than damp.
I get all that, but it ain't gonna happen any time soon. To develop the systems and subsystems and redundant systems necessary for a wholly self contained system capable of sustaining life for years between shipments, not to mention the propulsion, telemetry, comms, and all the rest necessary to support a supply line that long and that far away... Biting off way more than can be chewed.
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Doesn't matter how deep. Functionally closed off from atmosphere, so you have to make your own... Deep enough and you are simulating low light or no light conditions, so you have to make your own... All of the conditions are substantially present to simulate off-world problems... Yet if failure (of a non-catastrophic type) occurs, rescue is a helluva lot closer. A functional underwater city, wholly self-contained, Is a better shot than Mars. Every bit the 'frontier', every bit as daunting, and right in the back yard.
I get all that, but it ain't gonna happen any time soon. To develop the systems and subsystems and redundant systems necessary for a wholly self contained system capable of sustaining life for years between shipments, not to mention the propulsion, telemetry, comms, and all the rest necessary to support a supply line that long and that far away... Biting off way more than can be chewed.
It's a little like the return to a Constitutional Republic. It can be done, with time, but a lot of people are going to have to get a real education (mechanical, electrical, technical, not just theoretical), and to do it will take time. We had the SeaLab program in the 60s and 70s, which largely worked on problems similar to those in space, but the country went all "spend it on the problems at home" so those grew instead of finding solutions for elsewhere. I would like to see the steps taken to lay the groundwork for a Mars and Lunar colony, but it will take time, mistakes will be made, and yes, people will die as a result. Same happened crossing the Atlantic to found colonies here. When I was in my 20 and 30s I would have seriously considered going (either place, Mars or the Moon--IMHO we should have been at both by now, with settlements). Now, I don't think at my age the contribution (I could make) would be so much.
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Yet humans live in places where winter temps often get to -40, -50, -60 degrees F, just in North America. I have worked in temperatures from 122 above zero to -60. When it is that cold outside, yes, you stay in whatever warm place you can as much as possible, but dress for the elements (or lose skin or more to them). For most, life is a series of boxes, anyway. In cities, the apartment box, the cab/train/bus box, the office box...how many of those folks even look up at the sky (sure mark of a tourist in some places).
Yes, the box would be crowded, providing reason to find a way to make more livable space and incentive to scavenge or process the needed materials locally.
Adapt, improvise, overcome. It's how humans roll.
If we aren't outside our comfort zone, we are not making progress.
@Smokin Joe
On a positive note,everyone you come into contact with on Mars is someone that agrees with you 100 percent on the importance of what you are doing,and is enthusiastic about the work every day.
You can't say that about life on Earth,can you?
Just make sure to avoid black strangers named "Marvin".
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hmmm, wonder if Daniel Boone or Lewis and Clarke knew they could die?
@EdinVA
Not to mention Christopher Columbus and the sailors sailing with him.
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There is a good chance you will die on this planet, land, sea, or air.
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There is a good chance you will die on this planet, land, sea, or air.
@bigheadfred
Better than good. An absolute certainty.
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It's a little like the return to a Constitutional Republic. It can be done, with time, but a lot of people are going to have to get a real education (mechanical, electrical, technical, not just theoretical), and to do it will take time.
That's right - Decades, maybe centuries.
I would like to see the steps taken to lay the groundwork for a Mars and Lunar colony, but it will take time, mistakes will be made, and yes, people will die as a result. Same happened crossing the Atlantic to found colonies here.
I have no problem with that. In fact I would encourage that also... But likely thinking it will take way longer than folks think. Like I said... Underwater cities, then moon base with serious traffic back and forth... Then maybe a station or two half way between... THEN MARS.
Some day, a native Martian may be born... But I will not see it. Nor likely my kids.
When I was in my 20 and 30s I would have seriously considered going (either place, Mars or the Moon--IMHO we should have been at both by now, with settlements). Now, I don't think at my age the contribution (I could make) would be so much.
I don't think I would have done that. Air is an important thing to me. And being where there ain't any except that manufactured by an unreliable machine... Yeah thanks, I'll pass. I don't mind bucking a stacked deck, but that's some truly long odds.
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My attitude towards it is be bold.
Go for the goal from the start. The engineering problems will be solved in time.
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My attitude towards it is be bold.
Go for the goal from the start. The engineering problems will be solved in time.
That is the thing. You don't know until you have tried.
Mars is a stretch for now. A permanent lunar base with manufacturing, refueling and launch or relaunch capability is the start for heading out further.
Whether people understand it, realize it, or will accept it, genetically and technologically (cyborg) advanced humans will be the first to have any survivability on Mars, or any other place, except for the moon.
I read an article recently that when man first stepped foot on the moon, the world held it's collective breath, and then cheered.
One thing about Musk. He is a visionary that is actually trying to push the envelope of advancement in a more positive way than the people who run crap like Twitter, Facebook, the MSM, etc. Those people just want to push the envelope full of deplorables and useless eaters. And then toss it in the trash labeled junk mail.
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My attitude towards it is be bold.
Go for the goal from the start. The engineering problems will be solved in time.
The question is why?
Why spend hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars we don't have on something that brings very little benefit to anyone other than Musk?
Why not do the moon if we think we need to colonize something?
Why not work on the oceans here on earth?
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That is the thing. You don't know until you have tried.
Mars is a stretch for now. A permanent lunar base with manufacturing, refueling and launch or relaunch capability is the start for heading out further.
Whether people understand it, realize it, or will accept it, genetically and technologically (cyborg) advanced humans will be the first to have any survivability on Mars, or any other place, except for the moon.
I read an article recently that when man first stepped foot on the moon, the world held it's collective breath, and then cheered.
One thing about Musk. He is a visionary that is actually trying to push the envelope of advancement in a more positive way than the people who run crap like Twitter, Facebook, the MSM, etc. Those people just want to push the envelope full of deplorables and useless eaters. And then toss it in the trash labeled junk mail.
@bigheadfred
Musk will remain my hero if he does nothing but pick his nose for the rest of his life.
He had the imagination to launch that red roadster into deep space with a empty astronaut suit sitting behind the driver's wheel,and had it broadcast back to earth.
That was absolutely THE coolest thing I have ever seen in my life. I literally jumped to my feet and cheered when I saw the photo.
For one thing "Imagine for a moment there is an alien race we know nothing of,and who knows nothing about us.
They,like us,are starting to explore space and contemplate the possibilities.
Then,one day,out of nowhere,they see a bright red sports roadster headed their way,with a guy sitting behind the steering wheel.
Talk about shock and awe before they find out the space suit is empty,and it's unguided.
There are practical jokes,and then there is THIS!
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The question is why?
Why spend hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars we don't have on something that brings very little benefit to anyone other than Musk?
Why not do the moon if we think we need to colonize something?
Why not work on the oceans here on earth?
Isn't Musk paying for much of his Mars adventure?
If I private company colonizes Mars don't they get land/mineral rights to much of what they settle on?
We are explorers at heart. We have to get off this rock to have a long term future.
If I were a billionaire that's what I'd be doing with it.
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Isn't Musk paying for much of his Mars adventure?
If I private company colonizes Mars don't they get land/mineral rights to much of what they settle on?
We are explorers at heart. We have to get off this rock to have a long term future.
If I were a billionaire that's what I'd be doing with it.
NASA is footing the bill for most of spacex stuff...
Many articles discussing contracts...
The two companies are essentially building the same project for NASA, but for dramatically different prices. The contracts, awarded under NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (http://observer.com/2019/10/nasa-spacex-boeing-1st-crewed-space-mission-iss-2020/) (CCP), are valued at $4.3 billion for Boeing and $2.5 billion for SpaceX. But the preferential treatment doesn’t stop there. On top of Boeing’s already higher contract amount, NASA agreed to pay the company nearly $300 million extra, a new audit by the space agency’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) has found.
https://observer.com/2019/11/nasa-audit-boeing-spacex-iss-ccp-mission-spacecraft-budget/ (https://observer.com/2019/11/nasa-audit-boeing-spacex-iss-ccp-mission-spacecraft-budget/)
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That's right - Decades, maybe centuries.
I have no problem with that. In fact I would encourage that also... But likely thinking it will take way longer than folks think. Like I said... Underwater cities, then moon base with serious traffic back and forth... Then maybe a station or two half way between... THEN MARS.
Some day, a native Martian may be born... But I will not see it. Nor likely my kids.
I don't think I would have done that. Air is an important thing to me. And being where there ain't any except that manufactured by an unreliable machine... Yeah thanks, I'll pass. I don't mind bucking a stacked deck, but that's some truly long odds.
Well, one of the problems with underwater cities, is that it doesn't seem to take a lot to mes things up. Sure, every place has its drawbacks, but aside from pressure, cold, possible leaks, and constant damp, If you are far enough down to be below the biggest wave base (figure at least 300 ft.), you might as well be a million miles away from that air you like so much (admittedly, I'm partial to that, too.) Everything going in (or out) will have to be packaged for a hostile environment that potentially can destroy it.
The pluses of Space: Not much out there will eat you. Solar power will be available, unlike below the photic zone.
Yes, rocks can fall on your head, but that's really a longshot, and just about everything there that can fall on you can do so underwater. movement is easier with low density media around you and a fraction of a G to hold you down.
As to how reliable that air machine is, well, that depends on the savvy of the operators, and how good they are at getting and building spares. With the right raw materials which may be available out there for towing and refining, and enough know how, you'd be able to make what you need, no Jolly Roger necessary.
And last but not least...If the head office/government abandons you, you can always throw rocks...
While I'd be good with a moon colony first, just to get a little experience, we can dust off the old SeaLab materials and learn what they did. The tech might have been older, but the problems and issues will be basically the same. Keep in mind, though the Moon is different from Mars, resource bases are different, and Mars is closer to the Asteroid belt, which opens up a host of other possibilities.
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I know the pictures of Mars make me want to visit....NOT! Heck I can barely take a visit to Tucson, without a tree in sight.
I just don't see the colonization of Mars going well at all. One little issue and you all die....no thanks.
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I know the pictures of Mars make me want to visit....NOT! Heck I can barely take a visit to Tucson, without a tree in sight.
I just don't see the colonization of Mars going well at all. One little issue and you all die....no thanks.
Parts of it look like the San Juan Basin...only without the greens. It likely doesn't matter what the outside looks like so much, I think most human activity there would be underground to protect it from the winds.
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Well, one of the problems with underwater cities, is that it doesn't seem to take a lot to mes things up. Sure, every place has its drawbacks, but aside from pressure, cold, possible leaks, and constant damp, If you are far enough down to be below the biggest wave base (figure at least 300 ft.), you might as well be a million miles away from that air you like so much (admittedly, I'm partial to that, too.) Everything going in (or out) will have to be packaged for a hostile environment that potentially can destroy it.
Well alright... But Mars is 300 days away bare minimum. That's a long, long time if sh*t goes sideways. That's what I see. Before that can reasonably happen, supply and rescue has to have a much better response time. That's why I am seeing a need for a chain of space stations to narrow the gap, and another in orbit around Mars, able to respond if SHTF.
A moon base would be good practice, and far more practical than going that far out.
The pluses of Space: Not much out there will eat you.
Says who? That particular statement seems hard to prove. You don't know there's a sasquatch till you know there's a sasquatch.
Solar power will be available, unlike below the photic zone.
I don't know that particular problem is insurmountable. A submersible solar tender on a tether would seem to be a means. And emergency power would only require a ship with a long ass extension cord. That's supposing an 'at sea' scenario... But the whole show could be a facility near to shore with tunnels for escape and utility delivery. Then solar, wind, and shore power could be easily delivered.
And before you think all that a bit too fanciful, You're talking about Mars, dude... How much solar are you going to really get that far away? And I have already addressed the supply and rescue problems.
Yes, rocks can fall on your head, but that's really a longshot, and just about everything there that can fall on you can do so underwater. movement is easier with low density media around you and a fraction of a G to hold you down.
As to how reliable that air machine is, well, that depends on the savvy of the operators, and how good they are at getting and building spares. With the right raw materials which may be available out there for towing and refining, and enough know how, you'd be able to make what you need, no Jolly Roger necessary.
Well not really. IF you have geothermal that might be a reliable 'big power' source. But where it the power going to come from to run the drills to get at the geothermal? And you are talking light industry at the very least to harvest raw materials and turn them into air machines and whatnot. Power, reliable power is the bottleneck.
And last but not least...If the head office/government abandons you, you can always throw rocks...
Riiiight... Because that's gonna help. All they have to do is stop sending up Cheerios and then where are you?
While I'd be good with a moon colony first, just to get a little experience, we can dust off the old SeaLab materials and learn what they did. The tech might have been older, but the problems and issues will be basically the same. Keep in mind, though the Moon is different from Mars, resource bases are different, and Mars is closer to the Asteroid belt, which opens up a host of other possibilities.
Right. The experience is what I am getting at. We ain't got ANY, basically. Sea based or even high altitude based systems would give us WAY more experience than we have now... Maybe enough to start messin with the moon for real. That much is a whole bunch to bite off and chew.
And while I understand the attraction of the asteroid belt, you need heavy iron to go messin around in there. We have nothing at all capable of that. Not to mention the supply and servicing systems to support em.
But it's alright @Smokin Joe ... I think I have finally hit on the attraction Mars has on a Southern boy... All them red dirt roads... :laugh: :beer:
I am alright with going to Mars, I am. But I don't think we are anywhere near ready for that. Not even close. I think we are a long ways from supporting a moon base... Even a small one with under 10 residents, not to mention enough people to actually DO something.
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Parts of it look like the San Juan Basin...only without the greens. It likely doesn't matter what the outside looks like so much, I think most human activity there would be underground to protect it from the winds.
And radiation...
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And radiation...
There's a fair amount of that in the SJB, too.
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A trip to the moon and back... well, ok.
But I really see no point in going to Mars.
What is one going to do when one gets there...?
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A trip to the moon and back... well, ok.
But I really see no point in going to Mars.
What is one going to do when one gets there...?
Try not to die.
Error 404 (Not Found)!!1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNFzfwLM72c#)
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Here is an update. Short vid.
The truth is out there. :whistle:
Error 404 (Not Found)!!1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ07VVMmG7o#)
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A trip to the moon and back... well, ok.
But I really see no point in going to Mars.
What is one going to do when one gets there...?
@Fishrrman
Build a colony and stay. Just like the European settlers to the New World did a couple of hundred years ago.
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@Fishrrman
Build a colony and stay. Just like the European settlers to the New World did a couple of hundred years ago.
Yep, but not all of those were successful, in the sense they either died out, went home or were assimilated by the locals. Vinland and the Roanoke Colony come to mind.
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Yep, but not all of those were successful, in the sense they either died out, went home or were assimilated by the locals. Vinland and the Roanoke Colony come to mind.
@Smokin Joe
And the difference is........?
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@Smokin Joe
And the difference is........?
I don't think the Borg have made it to Mars, so either they are successful, will likely be well desiccated (mummified) by the time the relief crew shows up, or will come back...
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I don't think the Borg have made it to Mars, so either they are successful, will likely be well desiccated (mummified) by the time the relief crew shows up, or will come back...
We have to find the monolith on the moon first...