The Briefing Room
General Category => Midterm Elections 2022 => Topic started by: mystery-ak on September 22, 2022, 08:14:33 pm
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Kelly leading Masters by 8-point margin in new Arizona survey
by Jared Gans - 09/22/22 12:35 PM ET
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) leads his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, by 8 points in his reelection bid, according to a new AARP poll.
The poll found that 50 percent of respondents support Kelly compared to 42 percent who support Masters. The Libertarian nominee, Marc Victor, has 4 percent support, and 4 percent said they were undecided.
Kelly’s lead shrinks slightly in a head-to-head match-up, 52 percent to 45 percent.
The poll found Democrats almost entirely unified behind Kelly, with the incumbent receiving 95 percent of Democratic support. Masters has support from 80 percent of Republicans, while Kelly has support from 11 percent of GOP respondents.
Kelly also leads Masters among independents by 8 points.
The incumbent is viewed much more favorably in the poll than the challenger: Kelly is viewed favorably by 50 percent and unfavorably by 46 percent, while Masters is seen favorably by only 37 percent and is seen unfavorably by 54 percent.
Kelly and Masters are evenly tied among white voters in the state, and Kelly has a 35-point lead among Hispanics, which make up almost a third of the state’s population.
Kelly also leads among voters age 50 and older by double digits, fueled by his more than 20-point lead among Hispanics 50 and older and by only trailing among white voters 50 and older by 3 points.
The poll follows an Ohio Predictive Insights poll released Wednesday that showed Kelly leading Masters by 12 points.
Kelly has consistently led Masters in recent polling. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Kelly leading Masters by about 8.5 points.
The AARP poll was conducted among 1,332 likely voters, including a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, an oversample of 550 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 282 likely Hispanic voters age 50 and older. The poll was conducted from Sept. 8 to 15.
The margin of error for the statewide sample was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, the margin for the total sample of voters 50 and older was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points and the margin for the Hispanic voters 50 and older was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3656127-kelly-leading-masters-by-8-point-margin-in-new-arizona-survey/
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It's not exactly a poll.
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AARP? Oh, you mean like old geezers, the hippie counterculture, the anti Vietnam war protesting Students for a Democratic Society types. Yeah, it’s not a poll—it’s a “demonstration.”
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Cook Report shifts Arizona Senate race toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted the Arizona Senate race, one of the key contests that could decide control of the upper chamber, from a “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”
Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for Cook, a nonpartisan election analysis website, said in her explanation of the move that the Arizona Senate race may be the best example of Democrats being in a strong position to hold the Senate.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) has led Republican challenger Blake Masters in recent polling, including an AARP poll released Wednesday that showed him up by 8 points. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Kelly leading Masters by about 8.5 points.
Taylor noted Kelly had raised $54 million for his campaign and still had almost $25 million left as of the middle of July, while Masters had raised just less than $5 million during the cycle.
Taylor also said “it is clear that major outside groups are focusing their manpower elsewhere.”
A super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the Senate Leadership Fund confirmed Tuesday that it is cutting $9.6 million in advertising buys after already canceling $8 million in ads last month.
The Senate Leadership Fund said this week that it expected other groups to step in and make up the fundraising gap, but Taylor said these groups do not have the same extensive donor base.
more
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3656816-cook-report-shifts-arizona-senate-race-toward-democrats/
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Hope this is just them sowing fear uncertainty and doubt. (fud)
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Utter Bullshit "poll."
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Utter Bullshit "poll."
Thank you...
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Did the survey count the 110,000 Maracopa county dead voters with ballots that said printed in China? as the forensic audit found out.
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AARP is a lobbying organization for the Democrat Party.
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AARP? Oh, you mean like old geezers, the hippie counterculture, the anti Vietnam war protesting Students for a Democratic Society types. Yeah, it’s not a poll—it’s a “demonstration.”
Like an old crew slut.
It's a way of life
I ain't gonna squash it and you don't need to wash it!
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What strikes me is that while Kari Lake looks like she's gonna squeak across the finish line with a narrow win... some Lake voters (not a large cohort, but one "large enough" to make the difference) are gonna vote for Kelly or the 3rd party guy instead of Masters. What are they thinking about...?
Short of a major crash-and-burn, Kelly's got this one.
The Pubbies are gonna have to look elsewhere than Arizona for their chances of winning back the Senate.
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What strikes me is that while Kari Lake looks like she's gonna squeak across the finish line with a narrow win... some Lake voters (not a large cohort, but one "large enough" to make the difference) are gonna vote for Kelly or the 3rd party guy instead of Masters. What are they thinking about...?
Short of a major crash-and-burn, Kelly's got this one.
The Pubbies are gonna have to look elsewhere than Arizona for their chances of winning back the Senate.
If you stop looking at bogus polls, you'll live a longer and happier life.