The Briefing Room
General Category => Elections 2024 => Topic started by: mystery-ak on May 17, 2023, 10:37:09 pm
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Biden up 7 points over Donald Trump in 2024 popular vote, poll shows
By Josh Christenson
May 17, 2023 4:03pm
President Biden would expand his 2020 margin of victory over former President Donald Trump if a rematch were held today, according to a new poll exclusively shared with The Post Wednesday.
The WPA Intelligence survey of 1,571 registered voters found Biden, 80, leading 76-year-old Trump 47% to 40%. By comparison, Biden defeated Trump by 4.5 percentage points in the 2020 popular vote, while former President Barack Obama won re-election over Republican Mitt Romney by 3.9 percentage points in 2012.
The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5% and was conducted between May 10 and 13, also showed independent voters backing Biden by a whopping 14 percentage points, up from the nine percentage points by which the Democrat won independents three years ago, per the Pew Research Center.
Wednesday’s poll also showed Democrats leading generic down-ballot races 47% to 42% with Trump at the top of the Republican ticket.
Despite the grim reading for Trump supporters, the poll also shows Biden remains vulnerable to defeat next year.
Just 46% of voters approve and 54% of voters disapprove of the job the president is doing, with 42% strongly disapproving.
Only 39% of registered voters have a favorable impression of the commander-in-chief, with 54% having an unfavorable impression.
more
https://nypost.com/2023/05/17/biden-up-7-points-against-trump-in-2024-election-poll/
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These polls are all over the place
I believe Biden could beat Trump but not by 7 points
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Yep. I reckoned they'd just keep counting until he won.
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These polls are all over the place
I believe Biden could beat Trump but not by 7 points
He could. The only thing saving Trump now is that Biden is so far underwater. If Biden's own approval rating recovers somewhat, even if it is due to forces out of his control, I think he'd beat Trump by more than in 2020.
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Democrats don't know how many votes they need only how many they will use.
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Poll: 2024 Hypothetical General Election Matchups
May 17, 2023
https:u//peoplespundit.locals.com/post/4016766/poll-2024-hypothetical-general-election-matchups
The Public Polling Project conducted by Big Data Poll finds Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 7 points (rounded) in our May 2024 Hypothetical General Matchup. The former president takes 45.0% of the early likely general electorate, up from 43.8% in March-April. The current president trails with 38.1%, up slightly from 37.4% in March-April.
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The interesting part is how the public will punish downticket candidates with Trump at the top. Who can blame them? No matter what he does, the republicans are always going to find some excuse not to hold him accountable.
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InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
2024 GOP Primary: Trump holds 45-point lead over DeSantis
• Trump — 62% (+45)
• DeSantis — 17%
• Pence — 6%
• Haley — 5%
• Hutchinson — 3%
• Ramaswamy — 2%
@Rasmussen_Poll | 996 LV | 05/14-15
https://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/trump_holds_massive_lead_over_2024_gop_primary_field
10:58 AM · May 17, 2023
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The interesting part is how the public will punish downticket candidates with Trump at the top. Who can blame them? No matter what he does, the republicans are always going to find some excuse not to hold him accountable.
*hmmmm*
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The interesting part is how the public will punish downticket candidates with Trump at the top.
We saw this in 2022 without Trump being at the top of the ticket. Just simply applying the term MAGA Republicans, to many of his endorsed candidates was enough. And, despite his claim, he did not do well in the midterms.
Trump is not an election winner. It’s nothing personal. He’s simply not.
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There is no damned way Trump wins in 2024. He has long lost the suburban and independent voters, and he will not gain back any of the 2016 states he lost in 2020.
That said, he’ll probably win the GOP primary, but his victory dance stops there.
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The interesting part is how the public will punish downticket candidates with Trump at the top. Who can blame them? No matter what he does, the republicans are always going to find some excuse not to hold him accountable.
Unfortunately.
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The interesting part is how the public will punish downticket candidates with Trump at the top. Who can blame them? No matter what he does, the republicans are always going to find some excuse not to hold him accountable.
"The election was stolen again -- he never had a chance!"
Of course, if they truly believed that all along as they'll claim after the fact, then why did they want Trump to run at all if it was pointless? What moron wastes so much of his time and effort on something completely futile? And why would Trump or any of his supporters care if DeSantis ran or not if any Republican was destined to lose?
It is fundamentally inconsistent to 1) argue strongly for Trump in the primaries, and 2) believe that the Democrats will cheat and win the general election anyway. Which means that anyone really invested in Trump being the nominee and running again necessarily believes that that it isn't a lost cause, and that winning the general election is possible. Although that won't stop some folks from arguing from both sides of their mouth anyway.
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Major Bill writes:
"If Biden's own approval rating recovers somewhat, even if it is due to forces out of his control, I think he'd beat Trump by more than in 2020."
There's a problem:
ol' white joe isn't going to be running for president in 2024.
(if he does, he's gonna look like Dianne Feinstein looks right now...)
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Major Bill writes:
"If Biden's own approval rating recovers somewhat, even if it is due to forces out of his control, I think he'd beat Trump by more than in 2020."
There's a problem:
ol' white joe isn't going to be running for president in 2024.
(if he does, he's gonna look like Dianne Feinstein looks right now...)
I might even agree, but that just makes it worse. Biden is about the worst candidate they can run. Almost anyone else will do better.
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Probably by more than that,once the votes from Venezuela,Mexico,Equador,Haiti,etc,etc,etc are counted.
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There is no damned way Trump wins in 2024. He has long lost the suburban and independent voters, and he will not gain back any of the 2016 states he lost in 2020.
That said, he’ll probably win the GOP primary, but his victory dance stops there.
:beer:
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I'm predicting that DeSantis will win the GOP nomination. Who the DEMS run remains to be seen, but it sure isn't going to be Brandon.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwgloMJWwBgA7Wu?format=jpg&name=small)