The Briefing Room
General Category => Science, Technology and Knowledge => Energy => Topic started by: Fishrrman on February 16, 2021, 02:43:14 pm
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/texas-power-crisis-highlights-fragility-of-growing-dependency-on-unreliable-sources-of-energy-expert_3698580.html (https://www.theepochtimes.com/texas-power-crisis-highlights-fragility-of-growing-dependency-on-unreliable-sources-of-energy-expert_3698580.html)
(https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2021/02/15/texas-700x420.jpg)
Texas Power Crisis Highlights Fragility of Growing Dependency on ‘Unreliable’ Sources of Energy: Expert
BY TOM OZIMEK February 16, 2021
The brutal cold snap that crippled Texas’ power system and spread to other states, leading to blackouts in over four million homes and businesses, highlighted the growing vulnerability of the grid to increased dependency on less reliable sources of energy like wind and solar, an expert told NTD in an interview.
Jason Isaac, a former state representative and current director of Life:Powered, a project of the Texas Public Policy Foundation, said that the power crisis spurred by the recent deep freeze exposed the fragility associated with the global push to ditch “reliable†fossil fuels in favor of “unreliable†renewables.
“Reliable is our nuclear, our natural gas, and our coal,†Isaac said. “Natural gas and coal can ramp up or ramp down on demand,†he said. “They’re what’s referred to as ‘dispatchable energy.'â€
“Our ‘unreliables’ produce electricity when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining. And then they freeze up at really cold temperatures, too,†he said.
Isaac suggested that the surge in “unreliables†amounts to a subsidized takeoff of politically correct, but economically incorrect sources of energy.
“Unfortunately, we’ve subsidized and depend too much on virtue signaling and really given these unreliables incredibly huge benefits over the last decade, and now those chickens are coming home to roost,†he said.
More at URL above...
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If one does not understand history, one is doomed to repeat mistakes.
But not to worry, our energy czar John Kerry, will get us out of the slump
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It is not just those. Our Natural Gas is impacted as well as priority goes to heating. 75% of the states generation sources have been impacted. Many of the cooling systems for generators cannot handle this cold as well.
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It is not just those. Our Natural Gas is impacted as well as priority goes to heating. 75% of the states generation sources have been impacted. Many of the cooling systems for generators cannot handle this cold as well.
Yes, but the theme of this article is 100% spot on.
The power generation that has almost all benefits from government handouts is less reliable in the current situation than natural gas, coal or nuclear.
I read that up to 50% of all windmills were impacted by the freeze.
We will all die of the cold if we continue marching down that path of selectively financing those energy needs which are less reliable than what traditionally has powered the Texas economy.
And here's our governor just last week accepting an award for furthering this destructive renewable scheme instead of devising a comprehensive strategy to limit the potential harm from bad weather like we are in.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Receives Tri Global Energy's Wind Leadership Award
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/texas-gov-greg-abbott-receives-tri-global-energys-wind-leadership-award-301225238.html#:~:text=The%20annual%20award%20recognizes%20commitment,advisor%20Thomas%20Ratliff%20(right). (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/texas-gov-greg-abbott-receives-tri-global-energys-wind-leadership-award-301225238.html#:~:text=The%20annual%20award%20recognizes%20commitment,advisor%20Thomas%20Ratliff%20(right).)
Oh, and I looked up the website of who gave this award to Abbott.
There home page prominently displays
Renewables: Consistent and reliable
https://www.triglobalenergy.com/ (https://www.triglobalenergy.com/)
Pretty ironic right now, isn't it?
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And now we see what else surfaces on why Texans are freezing without power.
You guessed it. The feds.
Time we got rid of this relationship.
The Disgusting Reason That Millions of Texans Spent The Night Without Power
Texas produces more electricity than it consumes and maintains a buffer referred to as the “state’s reserve margin.†This margin ensures that we should never have to suffer from rolling blackouts like California.
Then why are so millions of Texans without power right now? Why are we dealing with rolling blackouts?
The answer is all-too-familiar: our relationship with the federal government.
In anticipation of this unprecedented power demand, Texas could have maxed out power generation. However, we couldn’t. Like a lowly beggar, Texas had to first ask for permission from the federal government to generate enough power to keep our people warm. Why? Because cranking up our power plants to full production might violate federal pollution limits.
There is a clear metaphor here. Texans were powerless because our elected officials ceded authority to a slow-moving, uncaring gaggle of federal bureaucrats.
https://tnm.me/news/political/the-disgusting-reason-that-millions-of-texans-spent-the-night-without-power?goal=0_244a299551-aa19c3ac87-321252206&mc_cid=aa19c3ac87&mc_eid=9ee19a558c
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And now we see what else surfaces on why Texans are freezing without power.
You guessed it. The feds.
Time we got rid of this relationship.
The Disgusting Reason That Millions of Texans Spent The Night Without Powerhttps://tnm.me/news/political/the-disgusting-reason-that-millions-of-texans-spent-the-night-without-power?goal=0_244a299551-aa19c3ac87-321252206&mc_cid=aa19c3ac87&mc_eid=9ee19a558c (https://tnm.me/news/political/the-disgusting-reason-that-millions-of-texans-spent-the-night-without-power?goal=0_244a299551-aa19c3ac87-321252206&mc_cid=aa19c3ac87&mc_eid=9ee19a558c)
And the requirement was waived. This looks like a very misleading article.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-15/pollution-limit-waived-for-texas-power-plants-in-emergency-order (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-15/pollution-limit-waived-for-texas-power-plants-in-emergency-order)
The Department of Energy issued an emergency order allowing several Texas power plants to produce as much electricity as possible, a move expected to violate anti-pollution rules that comes amid a deepening electricity crisis in the state that has cut power to millions of homes.
The Energy Department order, requested by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, authorizes power plants throughout the state to run a maximum output levels, even as such a move is anticipated to result in a violation of limits of pollution....
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And the requirement was waived. This looks like a very misleading article.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-15/pollution-limit-waived-for-texas-power-plants-in-emergency-order (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-15/pollution-limit-waived-for-texas-power-plants-in-emergency-order)
The Department of Energy issued an emergency order allowing several Texas power plants to produce as much electricity as possible, a move expected to violate anti-pollution rules that comes amid a deepening electricity crisis in the state that has cut power to millions of homes.
The Energy Department order, requested by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, authorizes power plants throughout the state to run a maximum output levels, even as such a move is anticipated to result in a violation of limits of pollution....
And now the WSJ chips in, noting that the dependency of Texas power generation from wind turbines went from 42% to 8%.
The Political Making of a Texas Power Outage
How bad energy policy led to rolling blackouts in the freezing Lone Star State.
Why are millions of Americans in the nation’s most energy-rich state without power and heat for days amid extreme winter weather? “The people who have fallen short with regard to the power are the private power generation companies,†Texas Gov. Greg Abbott explained. Ah, yes, blame private power companies . . . that are regulated by government.
The Republican sounds like California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who lambasted private utilities for rolling blackouts during a heat wave last summer. Power grids should be able to withstand extreme weather. But in both these bellwether states, state and federal energy policies have created market distortions and reduced grid reliability.
Mr. Abbott blamed his state’s extensive power outages on generators freezing early Monday morning, noting “this includes the natural gas & coal generators.†But frigid temperatures and icy conditions have descended on most of the country. Why couldn’t Texas handle them while other states did?
The problem is Texas’s overreliance on wind power that has left the grid more vulnerable to bad weather. Half of wind turbines froze last week, causing wind’s share of electricity to plunge to 8% from 42%. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-political-making-of-a-texas-power-outage-11613518653 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-political-making-of-a-texas-power-outage-11613518653)
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People need to be skewered for this. This is frickin' Texas.
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And now the WSJ chips in, noting that the dependency of Texas power generation from wind turbines went from 42% to 8%.
The Political Making of a Texas Power Outage
How bad energy policy led to rolling blackouts in the freezing Lone Star State.
Why are millions of Americans in the nation’s most energy-rich state without power and heat for days amid extreme winter weather? “The people who have fallen short with regard to the power are the private power generation companies,†Texas Gov. Greg Abbott explained. Ah, yes, blame private power companies . . . that are regulated by government.
The Republican sounds like California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who lambasted private utilities for rolling blackouts during a heat wave last summer. Power grids should be able to withstand extreme weather. But in both these bellwether states, state and federal energy policies have created market distortions and reduced grid reliability.
Mr. Abbott blamed his state’s extensive power outages on generators freezing early Monday morning, noting “this includes the natural gas & coal generators.†But frigid temperatures and icy conditions have descended on most of the country. Why couldn’t Texas handle them while other states did?
The problem is Texas’s overreliance on wind power that has left the grid more vulnerable to bad weather. Half of wind turbines froze last week, causing wind’s share of electricity to plunge to 8% from 42%. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-political-making-of-a-texas-power-outage-11613518653 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-political-making-of-a-texas-power-outage-11613518653)
I had high hopes for Abbott at one point. Now I wouldn't vote for him for Dog Catcher.
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People need to be skewered for this. This is frickin' Texas.
Abbott prefers receiving his award from the wind energy companies instead of working to minimize the damage from dependency upon wind turbines.
Texas Governor Receives TGE’s Wind Leadership Award
http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,428893.msg2382034.html#msg2382034 (http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,428893.msg2382034.html#msg2382034)
It is rich seeing the website of this company. https://www.triglobalenergy.com/ (https://www.triglobalenergy.com/)
Renewables: Consistent and reliable
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I had high hopes for Abbott at one point. Now I wouldn't vote for him for Dog Catcher.
:yowsa: That makes two of us!
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People need to be skewered for this. This is frickin' Texas.
:yowsa: What is the point of having your own independent power grid if you still have to beg permission from uncle sugar to use it? And that doesn't address the $billions that have been wasted on green energy junk instead of focusing on things that have been PROVEN to work!
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And now the WSJ chips in, noting that the dependency of Texas power generation from wind turbines went from 42% to 8%.
No way this represents Texas power production. There may exist a point in time when wind was high and demand was low that that peak happened, but it in no way represents Texas power capabilities.
(https://i.postimg.cc/rmvYvCKM/Tex-Elec-Gen.png)
https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/are-frozen-wind-turbines-to-blame-for-texas-power-outages/ (https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/are-frozen-wind-turbines-to-blame-for-texas-power-outages/)
...But the vast majority of energy the state generates is through natural gas. In October 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that renewables generated 22% of the state’s energy, while gas generated 51.8%.
In ERCOT’s plan for this winter, it expected that thermal and hydro resources, i.e. gas, coal and water, would need to generate 67,000 megawatts per hour during a high demand event to support the state. This didn’t take into account a historic snow storm where demand would increase and supply would be threatened.
On Monday, frozen instruments and a limited gas supply forced 30,000 MW/h of power offline. This was half of what ERCOT believed they would need. According to the agency, wind turbines account for less than 13% of the total generation that was lost. The majority of which was coal and gas....
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Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA)
Winter 2020/2021
http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/197378/SARA-PreliminaryWinter2020-2021.pdf (http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/197378/SARA-PreliminaryWinter2020-2021.pdf)
Operational Resources (thermal and hydro), MW 67,547
Capacity from Private Use Networks, MW 3,631
Coastal Wind, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW 1,480
Panhandle Wind, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW 1,411
Other Wind, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW 3,251
Solar Utility-Scale, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW 254
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No way this represents Texas power production. There may exist a point in time when wind was high and demand was low that that peak happened, but it in no way represents Texas power capabilities.
And
Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA)
Winter 2020/2021
http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/197378/SARA-PreliminaryWinter2020-2021.pdf (http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/197378/SARA-PreliminaryWinter2020-2021.pdf)
From link
PRELIMINARY
Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA)
Winter 2020/2021
SUMMARY
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) anticipates there will be sufficient installed
generating capacity available to serve system-wide forecasted peak demand this winter
(December 2020-February 2021).
Capabilities and installed generating capacity do NOT translate into generated power, which besides its cost is the #1 problem with relying upon renewables for power generation.
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Capabilities and installed generating capacity do NOT translate into generated power, which besides its cost is the #1 problem with relying upon renewables for power generation.
And I also wonder how much of the natural gas generating capacity here is simply backup capacity and unused unless the wind turbines do not operate or sun does not shine for solar power, which happens with frequency.
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Capabilities and installed generating capacity do NOT translate into generated power, which besides its cost is the #1 problem with relying upon renewables for power generation.
Did you miss the word "contribution"?
This is not nameplate value, but the average rate expected to contribute to the grid.
30,000 MW of thermal (coal, gas, etc) was dropped from the grid while demand climbed higher than they forecast. All types sources had problems but the gas network nearly "crashed". Spot prices screamed high as 5 Billion CF/D dropped from the networks.
Pressures have dropped so low that some gas generators would not run, in addition to the freezing problems.
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I had high hopes for Abbott at one point. Now I wouldn't vote for him for Dog Catcher.
He certainly will not be in the running to be the successor to Anson Jones as our President.
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Quote from above:
"And now the WSJ chips in, noting that the dependency of Texas power generation from wind turbines went from 42% to 8%."
This is A GOOD THING.
Those unreliable wind turbines should be decommissioned and replaced...
...By reliable coal fired power plants.
Even if they don't burn that awful Texas green coal, it can still be mined up north (Wyoming?) and railroaded down and stockpiled by the tens of thousands of tons.
I'm thinking that relying too much on natural gas for electric power generation is revealing its Achilles heel, as well -- as we're seeing now. How does a generating station "stockpile" 20-30 days worth of gas...?
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Did you miss the word "contribution"?
This is not nameplate value, but the average rate expected to contribute to the grid.
30,000 MW of thermal (coal, gas, etc) was dropped from the grid while demand climbed higher than they forecast. All types sources had problems but the gas network nearly "crashed". Spot prices screamed high as 5 Billion CF/D dropped from the networks.
Pressures have dropped so low that some gas generators would not run, in addition to the freezing problems.
I did not see the word contribution.
And I still an uncertain whether the total of natural gas production which 'crashed' includes the natural gas generators which backup the wind and solar power plants.
Since you are accustomed with these things, in your mind, should the reliability of a backup system run only periodically be as good as a base power system which runs most of the time?
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I did not see the word contribution.
And I still an uncertain whether the total of natural gas production which 'crashed' includes the natural gas generators which backup the wind and solar power plants.
Since you are accustomed with these things, in your mind, should the reliability of a backup system run only periodically be as good as a base power system which runs most of the time?
Texas grid does not install generators to back up other systems. They are all installed independently and run independently based on needs, price, etc.
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Texas grid does not install generators to back up other systems. They are all installed independently and run independently based on needs, price, etc.
Well, that means they can not be depended upon to generate electricity when the wind does not blow
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Well, that means they can not be depended upon to generate electricity when the wind does not blow
Exactly. There are no guarantees.
Just like the Gas Power plants cannot be depended upon to generate electricity when the gas doesn't flow to them either.
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Exactly. There are no guarantees.
Just like the Gas Power plants cannot be depended upon to generate electricity when the gas doesn't flow to them either.
But what is the likelihood of a natural gas power plant shutting down vs a wind generator?
The wind seems much more variable than the tendency of natural gas to cease flowing to a power plant.
I for one have lived in my house over 6 years and not once has the gas stopped.
Seems pretty certain to me that I get gas here to heat me up.
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But what is the likelihood of a natural gas power plant shutting down vs a wind generator?
The wind seems much more variable than the tendency of natural gas to cease flowing to a power plant.
I for one have lived in my house over 6 years and not once has the gas stopped.
Seems pretty certain to me that I get gas here to heat me up.
I agree with all that. And so did Ercot. Their winter plans expected very little output from wind. And across the state, wind output basically meet Ercot's expectations.
Ercot had much higher expectations from thermal (Nat Gas, Coal, etc). Lost output from them was nearly 6 times greater than the expected worse case. That was caused by both Nat Gas supply problems as well as problems due to cold at the generation facility. Even lost one of Bay Cities Nuke units due to the cold I believe.
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...I for one have lived in my house over 6 years and not once has the gas stopped.
Seems pretty certain to me that I get gas here to heat me up.
I know that many Texas Nat Gas pipelines declared "force majeure" on their delivery contracts this week. The pressure drop was too great. Plenty of pressure to feed most (not all) low pressure delivery systems but not enough pressure to deliver ~1000 psi required for the rated output at most power plants.
I've helped design those connections in the past. A typical large Nat Gas Generation stations would have several individual generators. The flow through the distributing system at 500 psi would not give enough pressure at all the units to run, likely only half or so.
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I know that many Texas Nat Gas pipelines declared "force majeure" on their delivery contracts this week. The pressure drop was too great. Plenty of pressure to feed most (not all) low pressure delivery systems but not enough pressure to deliver ~1000 psi required for the rated output at most power plants.
I've helped design those connections in the past. A typical large Nat Gas Generation stations would have several individual generators. The flow through the distributing system at 500 psi would not give enough pressure at all the units to run, likely only half or so.
If it is a pressure issue, seems the installation of some compressors tapped into the line to boost it up for usage of the power plant is a solution here? (Sorry if you already covered this elsewhere).
Thanks for the insight on this. I believe your qualifications, but maybe not your inclination, could be very useful as a replacement for the lawyers and politicians making decisions on our power grid systems.
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If it is a pressure issue, seems the installation of some compressors tapped into the line to boost it up for usage of the power plant is a solution here? (Sorry if you already covered this elsewhere).
Thanks for the insight on this. I believe your qualifications, but maybe not your inclination, could be very useful as a replacement for the lawyers and politicians making decisions on our power grid systems.
The pressure problem was created because more was being drawn out of the pipelines at power plants and city heating, than was going in from the gas plants.
Compressors on pipelines overcome flow problems, to much resistance due to high velocities, pushing gases long distances, etc.
Secondly, several compressor stations had freezing problems as well and also shut down.
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I've been watching this discussion....
Consider the Opportunity Costs involved. What's been wasted on expensive windmills and solar cells could have been used to build and stock coal-fired plants. Gas is excellent, but it having to be delivered by a pipeline has it's drawbacks, as evidenced these past few days.
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I've been watching this discussion....
Consider the Opportunity Costs involved. What's been wasted on expensive windmills and solar cells could have been used to build and stock coal-fired plants. Gas is excellent, but it having to be delivered by a pipeline has it's drawbacks, as evidenced these past few days.
CERTAINLY hybrid plants that mainly use gas, but keep the coal idling and ready to kick in would be a reasonable solution... Also generation by drawing down dams (which is the only real 'battery' that works)...
And nuke plants - I do not favor them... But the big three are still the big three. Hydro, coal, and nuke.
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CERTAINLY hybrid plants that mainly use gas, but keep the coal idling and ready to kick in would be a reasonable solution... Also generation by drawing down dams (which is the only real 'battery' that works)...
And nuke plants - I do not favor them... But the big three are still the big three. Hydro, coal, and nuke.
What you describe is much less efficient and more expensive than a Nat Gas Combined Cycle unit. While you can point at this week and say it is needed, the company that would build it could not compete on the market with the others.
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What you describe is much less efficient and more expensive than a Nat Gas Combined Cycle unit. While you can point at this week and say it is needed, the company that would build it could not compete on the market with the others.
At some point, if one wants reliability, profit quits being the only factor. The problem with coal in an emergency is the time it takes to fire it up, so you can't just take coal plants out of mothballs for a minute. Same with nukes. They need to be online if they are going to help.
And I DO realize that it's only for a couple weeks. I get that. But these couple weeks and things like it are when the rubber meets the road. It is where a diversified and distributed system stretches its legs and becomes readily apparent.
Kinda like burning wood for heat - It's a mess, a lot of work, and one can rightly argue it is more expensive. Why not rely on NG like everyone else? Because of THIS, right here. The easy way is not necessarily the right way.
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At some point, if one wants reliability, profit quits being the only factor. The problem with coal in an emergency is the time it takes to fire it up, so you can't just take coal plants out of mothballs for a minute. Same with nukes. They need to be online if they are going to help.
Yes. Coal typically needs ~9 hours come from startup to making power. Hours later before making much power, several later to get close to nameplate. Nuke almost always needs to be running or it cannot be afforded.
And I DO realize that it's only for a couple weeks. I get that. But these couple weeks and things like it are when the rubber meets the road. It is where a diversified and distributed system stretches its legs and becomes readily apparent.
5 days actually, not even a full week. I believe it has been many decades since a below freezing lasted a full week.
Kinda like burning wood for heat - It's a mess, a lot of work, and one can rightly argue it is more expensive. Why not rely on NG like everyone else? Because of THIS, right here. The easy way is not necessarily the right way.
But electric power is a competitive business it Texas. If you build it, it must be competitive, or funded by others.
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But electric power is a competitive business it Texas. If you build it, it must be competitive, or funded by others.
That's a thing. If y'all import coal, I guess it ain't as cheap there as it is here. Two yards of stoker coal is around 100, maybe 125, and will keep a 40x60 shop warm all winter. Up in here, NG can't even compete. Shoot, it even beats wood, even FREE wood by some. Good larch up here costs 150 a cord and it will take 4 cord, maybe 6, to heat that same shop. NG would be in the neighborhood of 125/mo base winter average and could go well over 200 in a cold month.
So perhaps that is coloring my view. Everywhere I know, coal is cheaper than dirt. But I guess if you have to get it from the Utah fields or Kentucky, the cost of the bringing must make it unpalatable, when your NG is in the ground right there.
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That's a thing. If y'all import coal, I guess it ain't as cheap there as it is here. Two yards of stoker coal is around 100, maybe 125, and will keep a 40x60 shop warm all winter. Up in here, NG can't even compete. Shoot, it even beats wood, even FREE wood by some. Good larch up here costs 150 a cord and it will take 4 cord, maybe 6, to heat that same shop. NG would be in the neighborhood of 125/mo base winter average and could go well over 200 in a cold month.
So perhaps that is coloring my view. Everywhere I know, coal is cheaper than dirt. But I guess if you have to get it from the Utah fields or Kentucky, the cost of the bringing must make it unpalatable, when your NG is in the ground right there.
The largest power plant in Texas is W.A. Parish, 3,565 MW. Burns ~36,000 tons of coal a day, low-sulfur, sub-bituminous coal from Wyoming. But that was built quite a while ago. They tried to use it for Carbon Capture, CO2 inject for enhanced oil product but that ended last year.
About 20 miles from my home. My driveway is bottom ash from there. I bought another load last week.
http://www.texas-flyer.com/Fly-In-EngineOut/powerplant.htm (http://www.texas-flyer.com/Fly-In-EngineOut/powerplant.htm)
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But electric power is a competitive business it Texas. If you build it, it must be competitive, or funded by others.
What I am getting at is system resiliency. Theoretically that means a battery of a sort. Stored capacity.
Nuke is not that - You just turn up the knob and jamb the throttles to the wood.
But everything else... Electricity is notoriously hard to store systematically. There is no reliable and inexpensive way to buffer electricity itself, or solar and wind might be more attractive. So the 'battery' as it were, is only made real in stored resources prior to conversion. Stored water makes hydro a battery... A mountain of coal is a battery...
So maybe I should ask you, how do YOU see bringing resiliency and recovery to an NG driven system?
Can you store in distributed tanks as an instance, like gasoline and diesel? Would that buffer such an event?
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I heard on Beck this morning that TX failed to 'winterize' their energy sources.
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I heard on Beck this morning that TX failed to 'winterize' their energy sources.
I heard something similar about the windmills. The grease and oil they use evidently wasn't made for extremely cold weather. I'm sure this will be remedied in the future.
The windmills are quite interesting. The 35,000 acre ranch on which we drill has 72 of them. They have a 30 year lease for the acreage on which they are placed. They pay the ranch around $3,000,000 a year in royalties. I found them interesting when they were being constructed, but after seeing other windmills in the area in flames at times....I have no use for them. Plus they are hideous....
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I heard on Beck this morning that TX failed to 'winterize' their energy sources.
Some of that has to be true, and reasonable against a certain normalcy... Sleeping at the wheel till a big ol 130 year old problem rises once again and smacks you upside the head.
I doubt that southern equipment is hardened against cold like northern equipment HAS to be. Some of that HAS to be true.
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What you describe is much less efficient and more expensive than a Nat Gas Combined Cycle unit. While you can point at this week and say it is needed, the company that would build it could not compete on the market with the others.
Are you talking about operational efficiency(MW produced per BTU burnt) or economic efficiency(lowest cost)?
Most certainly coal's price makes it very efficient economically to burn for electricity. As I understand how the operational costs of a power plant works for natural gas and for coal, the raw feed costs are the largest component of the expenses.
I know all the power plants from coal to natural gas to nuclear to wind were all impacted by the freeze, but am skeptical if they were hit similarly. In my mind, I would rank the dependability in this type of situation ranking wind the worst and coal and nuclear the best for keeping the lights on, while natural gas is in between.
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Are you talking about operational efficiency(MW produced per BTU burnt) or economic efficiency(lowest cost)?
Both. Combined Cycle Nat Gas efficiency MW/BTU are running now 60% and up. This means more dollars to operate for just boilers that can be feed with coal or gas. Dual Fuel System is likely even going add up to more dollars to build, but so far out of the norm no real data to look at.
Most certainly coal's price makes it very efficient economically to burn for electricity. As I understand how the operational costs of a power plant works for natural gas and for coal, the raw feed costs are the largest component of the expenses.
Coals problem is the modern emission requirements. Scrubbers can consume 1/3 of the total plant output before the electrons cross the fence.
I know all the power plants from coal to natural gas to nuclear to wind were all impacted by the freeze, but am skeptical if they were hit similarly. In my mind, I would rank the dependability in this type of situation ranking wind the worst and coal and nuclear the best for keeping the lights on, while natural gas is in between.
Wind was never much of the plan, as I pointed out before. It is not dispatchable or dependable. That is why the Ercot 2020~2021 winter plan had little dependence on it. Wind was producing at the planed rate. Nat Gas, along with some problems from coal and nuke, was down nearly 6 times the expected worse case. A couple more MW of problems with demand higher than believed would hit max.
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Both. Combined Cycle Nat Gas efficiency MW/BTU are running now 60% and up. This means more dollars to operate for just boilers that can be feed with coal or gas. Dual Fuel System is likely even going add up to more dollars to build, but so far out of the norm no real data to look at.
Coals problem is the modern emission requirements. Scrubbers can consume 1/3 of the total plant output before the electrons cross the fence.
Wind was never much of the plan, as I pointed out before. It is not dispatchable or dependable. That is why the Ercot 2020~2021 winter plan had little dependence on it. Wind was producing at the planed rate. Nat Gas, along with some problems from coal and nuke, was down nearly 6 times the expected worse case. A couple more MW of problems with demand higher than believed would hit max.
Guess I still believe that, although combined cycle gas might be the most operationally efficient, coal could still be the lower cost MW producer, even with the scrubbing. Is that incorrect?
And I know about the problems with all the different power plants freezing up.
What I was curious about was the % of generated power per type that was actually down.
Wind we know was 50% of output.
Natural Gas seems to be pretty high downtime as well due to freezing.
Nuclear % down is dependent upon that one Bay City reactor that might have been down for awhile
Coal am unsure about.
The point is during the past week when things went haywire, seems a larger % of all natural gas generation MW had problems than experience by coal and nuclear generation, maybe even for longer periods of time.
Am still attempting to focus on the reliability factor rather than a simple statement "They all had problems".
For example(and hypothetically), if all the generated MW power produced by coal had a one hour episode of downtime in only one of the 20 plants producing power, then that sure seems nothing much at all compared to all the generated MW power produced by natural gas having a 3 day event downtime episode at 25% of all the plants.
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It is not just those. Our Natural Gas is impacted as well as priority goes to heating. 75% of the states generation sources have been impacted. Many of the cooling systems for generators cannot handle this cold as well.
The word you're searching for is "affected".
Something is "impacted" when it physically comes into contact with something else. Impacted teeth, meteorite impacts, bullets impacted on the target...
We really can't recover our society if we refuse to use our language correctly.
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We will all die of the cold if we continue marching down that path of selectively financing those energy needs which are less reliable than what traditionally has powered the Texas economy.
Umm....I live in Los Angeles...and I have a fireplace that takes wood...even if I didn't, I have a lot of blankets.
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Guess I still believe that, although combined cycle gas might be the most operationally efficient, coal could still be the lower cost MW producer, even with the scrubbing. Is that incorrect?
I think NG in Texas would still be less cost. 60% eff versus 40% less a 1/3 brings it to 27.7%. In Texas, I do not think NG is more than twice coal delivered here.
And I know about the problems with all the different power plants freezing up.
What I was curious about was the % of generated power per type that was actually down.
Wind we know was 50% of output.
Natural Gas seems to be pretty high downtime as well due to freezing.
Nuclear % down is dependent upon that one Bay City reactor that might have been down for awhile
Coal am unsure about.
(https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2021.02.19/chart2.svg)
The point is during the past week when things went haywire, seems a larger % of all natural gas generation MW had problems than experience by coal and nuclear generation, maybe even for longer periods of time.
Am still attempting to focus on the reliability factor rather than a simple statement "They all had problems".
For example(and hypothetically), if all the generated MW power produced by coal had a one hour episode of downtime in only one of the 20 plants producing power, then that sure seems nothing much at all compared to all the generated MW power produced by natural gas having a 3 day event downtime episode at 25% of all the plants.
I don't see any of the coal issues limited to one hour in any reports. The generation shows the coal that was done, stayed down for days.
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Umm....I live in Los Angeles...and I have a fireplace that takes wood...even if I didn't, I have a lot of blankets.
Talking about Texas.
And I lived twice in Corpus Christi, which has every bit as good of weather as Los Angeles. I recall one winter when I lived on the Bay that I never even wore a sweater.
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I think NG in Texas would still be less cost. 60% eff versus 40% less a 1/3 brings it to 27.7%. In Texas, I do not think NG is more than twice coal delivered here.
(https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2021.02.19/chart2.svg)
I don't see any of the coal issues limited to one hour in any reports. The generation shows the coal that was done, stayed down for days.
very interesting. It does appear all types of feed suffered equal amounts of issues.
It is also interesting that when wind was working early in graph, there was a direct reduction in coal and gas.
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very interesting. It does appear all types of feed suffered equal amounts of issues.
It is also interesting that when wind was working early in graph, there was a direct reduction in coal and gas.
Much like our homes, our water supply and other stuff. We don't build stuff down here for weather 30~40 degrees below normal winter for days.
(https://i.postimg.cc/wjKfX714/Houston-cold.png)
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Much like our homes, our water supply and other stuff. We don't build stuff down here for weather 30~40 degrees below normal winter for days.
(https://i.postimg.cc/wjKfX714/Houston-cold.png)
With coal and natural gas increasing with wind going down early in the graph, does this mean wind is operationally cheaper to generate power than is either coal or natural gas?
Seems they are a backup to wind, which is odd, as you have mentioned wind is a much less reliable power source. Unless it is a lot cheaper to operate, then it makes no sense to install wind energy generation, as I would just stick with the reliable generator.
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With coal and natural gas increasing with wind going down early in the graph, does this mean wind is operationally cheaper to generate power than is either coal or natural gas?
Seems they are a backup to wind, which is odd, as you have mentioned wind is a much less reliable power source. Unless it is a lot cheaper to operate, then it makes no sense to install wind energy generation, as I would just stick with the reliable generator.
The federal government subsidies for wind amount to 2.3 cents per kWh, putting it well below the cost of coal and natural gas. A free market does not exist between these sources of electricity.
http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,429049.msg2384088.html#msg2384088 (http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,429049.msg2384088.html#msg2384088)
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The federal government subsidies for wind amount to 2.3 cents per kWh, putting it well below the cost of coal and natural gas. A free market does not exist between these sources of electricity.http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,429049.msg2384088.html#msg2384088 (http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,429049.msg2384088.html#msg2384088)
Am beginning to understand why we have such an emphasis on wind energy.
Wind energy is a disincentive to keeping our electric grid reliable as it keeps natural gas plants from being built. If I were a foreign hostile power trying to cripple us, I would produce wind turbines cheaply so we could use lots of them. While at the same time I purchase coal from them to run power plants I continue to build.
Sounds familiar to what is now happening?
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Am beginning to understand why we have such an emphasis on wind energy.
Wind energy is a disincentive to keeping our electric grid reliable as it keeps natural gas plants from being built. If I were a foreign hostile power trying to cripple us, I would produce wind turbines cheaply so we could use lots of them. While at the same time I purchase coal from them to run power plants I continue to build.
Sounds familiar to what is now happening?
:yowsa: The picture becomes more clear by the hour.