The Briefing Room
State Chapters => Texas => Topic started by: catfish1957 on August 27, 2018, 06:34:09 pm
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Don't know the level of bias of this particular poll, (and an e-poll at that)but possibly this thing has gotten tight. (Cruz +1). Reference prior close polls. Add the fact, this same poll shows Abbott blowing away his competition as expected...... This poll may not be party biased.
Apparently the dupes out there have forgotten how badly the dims used to represent our state, and don't recognize the slick folksy car salesman like snow job he is giving. Add the fact the MSM is eating this up like cake.
Time to reenergize.
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf (https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf)
Boston, MA (August 27, 2018) --- A new Emerson College e-Poll finds the US Senate race neck and neck with Senator Ted Cruz at 38% and US Rep Beto O’Rourke at 37%..........
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The poll is heavy on women and Millennials, light on seniors, so even if they turnout according to that sample, O'Rourke still loses.
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The poll is heavy on women and Millennials, light on seniors, so even if they turnout according to that sample, O'Rourke still loses.
Noticed that too. But am not liking the trend.
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Noticed that too. But am not liking the trend.
I would like to see a poll done with traditional turnout rates. I'm guessing Cruz would be up 5 to 10.
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Way to go Ted. That failed run for President really help your street cred out in the state. You are now even with a fake Hispanic frat boy.
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ROFLMFAO!!!
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ROFLMFAO!!!
Listen. Laugh all you want but the candidate himself is whining to anyone that will listen that he is in trouble and from what I see Beatoff has convinced a large portion of the Hispanics down there that he is one of them.
I don't have a good feeling about this race and consistent tight polling where it should be a GOP runaway isn't helping any.
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Listen. Laugh all you want but the candidate himself is whining to anyone that will listen that he is in trouble and from what I see Beatoff has convinced a large portion of the Hispanics down there that he is one of them.
I don't have a good feeling about this race and consistent tight polling where it should be a GOP runaway isn't helping any.
Of course he is. It's a perfect fundraising tactic and it generally works very well.
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Time to reenergize.....
Good luck with that. I mentioned this on a few threads but I was at a local RNC meeting a few months back and they are having trouble getting any volunteers. From filling office positions to people putting out signs. People are loud online but when it comes to breaking a sweat, the just don't show. The local 'We the People' Tea Party group has all but dissolved, mostly due to infighting and 'social' stuff. On top of that, the local LP is very active with young people, I've seen 4-5 Neal Dikeman signs go up in the past week to 1 Cruz sign and dozens of Beto signs.
One other thing I recently found out, the Cruz campaign is not providing signs to many precincts, anyone who wants one has to buy it, unlike the DNC that seems to be dumping a lot and are passing them out like candy.
The demographics presume a Cruz win, but turn out can make a difference, especially in a sub five point race.
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Of course he is. It's a perfect fundraising tactic and it generally works very well.
I don't know about you but this thing screams Rick Santorum Part 2. One term Senator who got distracted with stuff not related to his state is now paying the piper.
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Listen. Laugh all you want but the candidate himself is whining to anyone that will listen that he is in trouble and from what I see Beatoff has convinced a large portion of the Hispanics down there that he is one of them.
I don't have a good feeling about this race and consistent tight polling where it should be a GOP runaway isn't helping any.
What bothers me the most is that Abbott is beating the sh__ out of his opponents in every one of the same polls, so I don't buy the party or voter profile bias story.
This thing is closer than we want it to be.
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One other thing I recently found out, the Cruz campaign is not providing signs to many precincts, anyone who wants one has to buy it,
Buy a sign? You gotta be shitting me. Ugh......
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What bothers me the most is that Abbott is beating the sh__ out of his opponents in every one of the same polls, so I don't buy the party or voter profile bias story.
This thing is closer than we want it to be.
Abbot's opponent is doing squat and she is not likable. Francis is playing to the youth and going town to town, door to door. I see people I never would have guessed would support him saying they are.
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Of course he is. It's a perfect fundraising tactic and it generally works very well.
I've seen a few rope-a-dope campaigns backfire. I hope that's not the strategy.
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Buy a sign? You gotta be shitting me. Ugh......
Finding that out is shocking. Signs and bumper stickers is job number one when running for election/reelection. Where is Cruz spending his money if not for that?
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Finding that out is shocking. Signs and bumper stickers is job number one when running for election/reelection. Where is Cruz spending his money if not for that?
Someone is paying for it, the question is who. Usually in high profile senate races like this, the State or National party does. In local races, the candidate does (via donations or out of pocket).
This could be a sign that the national party or candidate is confident (overly so?) that it isn't necessary, the $$ isn't there (Cruz is getting beaten in fundraising which is crazy for a Republican in Texas*), or they are choosing to focus resources elsewhere (which is a mystery as other than Robocalls, I'm seeing little activity from the candidate).
* http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/02/24/ted-cruz-losing-2018-fundraising-race-to-likely-democratic-challenger-filings-show.html (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/02/24/ted-cruz-losing-2018-fundraising-race-to-likely-democratic-challenger-filings-show.html)
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Someone is paying for it, the question is who. Usually in high profile senate races like this, the State or National party does. In local races, the candidate does (via donations or out of pocket).
This could be a sign that the national party or candidate is confident (overly so?) that it isn't necessary, the $$ isn't there (Cruz is getting beaten in fundraising which is crazy for a Republican in Texas*), or they are choosing to focus resources elsewhere (which is a mystery as other than Robocalls, I'm seeing little activity from the candidate).
* http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/02/24/ted-cruz-losing-2018-fundraising-race-to-likely-democratic-challenger-filings-show.html (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/02/24/ted-cruz-losing-2018-fundraising-race-to-likely-democratic-challenger-filings-show.html)
From an outside observer, Cruz looks like he wants to lose this election.
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From an outside observer, Cruz looks like he wants to lose this election.
To do that there would need to be something in it for Cruz .... and I'm missing what that might be.
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I would like to see a poll done with traditional turnout rates. I'm guessing Cruz would be up 5 to 10.
Cruz won the primary in 2016 with only 43.7% of the vote (lowest showing by a republican in years) .... truth may be he'll need every single Republican vote out there. I hope he's working on this ... we need the seat.
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From an outside observer, Cruz looks like he wants to lose this election.
I think it is more that the media is making Francis to be some sort of superstar- but different than Wendy Davis who was not likable. They are playing Francis up like the new Obama, young, charismatic, likable, relatable. Francis is also playing the full social media gambit- Facebook, Instagram, YouTube. Fans follow him like they follow their favorite 'Influencer'.
The local media here at least, doesn't even announce that 'Cruz is coming to town', they just report on it after the fact. They had 5 articles announcing Francis coming to town.
Ted Cruz will be in Palestine, Lufkin, and Marshall Texas tomorrow, and not a peep announcing it in the local media. https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=ted+cruz%2c+marshall+tx&qft=interval%3d%224%22&form=PTFTNR (https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=ted+cruz%2c+marshall+tx&qft=interval%3d%224%22&form=PTFTNR)
I didn't even know about it until someone sent me an email this morning asking if I would photograph the event (called in for Jury Duty so I can't).
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I'm pretty sure McConnell and the Senate Fund are not going to shed any tears if Cruz loses.
I would not be surprised if they decided to twist in the wind and supported Beto via stealth, which would be well-in-keeping with the way McConnell operates.
Remember Thad Cochrane anyone?
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As I mentioned earlier, he has the slickness of a used car salesman, and he has the MSM in hip pocket.
Best thing now is to get him into a a series of debates, and show he is nothing but an empty suit.
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As I mentioned earlier, he has the slickness of a used car salesman, and he has the MSM in hip pocket.
Best thing now is to get him into a a series of debates, and show he is nothing but an empty suit.
In July, Cruz challenged O'Rourke to five debates – sending a detailed plan with proposed dates, cities and topics. The first was to be on Aug. 31 in Dallas and to focus on "Jobs/Taxes/Federal Regulations/National Economy." O'Rourke accepted Cruz's proposal for five debates but suggested some revisions — including having a sixth debate in O'Rourke's hometown of El Paso.
In April, O'Rourke's campaign kicked off the debate negotiations by proposing six debates, including two in Spanish.
Beto O’Rourke says he isn’t debating Ted Cruz this Friday
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/08/27/beto-orourke-ted-cruz-debate-friday-texas/ (https://www.texastribune.org/2018/08/27/beto-orourke-ted-cruz-debate-friday-texas/)
U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, the El Paso Democrat challenging Republican incumbent Ted Cruz in Texas' U.S. Senate race, says a proposed Aug. 31 debate between the two "is not going to happen."...
...In July, Cruz challenged O'Rourke to five debates – sending a detailed plan with proposed dates, cities and topics. The first was to be on Aug. 31 in Dallas and to focus on "Jobs/Taxes/Federal Regulations/National Economy." O'Rourke accepted Cruz's proposal for five debates but suggested some revisions — including having a sixth debate in O'Rourke's hometown of El Paso.
In April, O'Rourke's campaign kicked off the debate negotiations by proposing six debates, including two in Spanish....
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Cruz won the primary in 2016 with only 43.7% of the vote (lowest showing by a republican in years) .... truth may be he'll need every single Republican vote out there. I hope he's working on this ... we need the seat.
That is an apples to oranges comparison. That was a primary, not a general election.
I suggest you look at the primary results earlier this year wherein he received 85.3% of the votes.
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That is an apples to oranges comparison. That was a primary, not a general election.
I suggest you look at the primary results earlier this year wherein he received 85.3% of the votes.
Then relax. Cruz can phone it in.
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Cruz won the primary in 2016 with only 43.7% of the vote (lowest showing by a republican in years) .... truth may be he'll need every single Republican vote out there. I hope he's working on this ... we need the seat.
Can you at least tell the whole story @Right_in_Virginia ?
There were over a dozen candidates on the Texas ballot, and Cruz won nearly every county. Cruz counties are in gold, Trump counties are in blue.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7c/Texas_Republican_Presidential_Primary_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2016.svg/300px-Texas_Republican_Presidential_Primary_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2016.svg.png)
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Can you at least tell the whole story @Right_in_Virginia ?
There were over a dozen candidates on the Texas ballot, and Cruz won nearly every county. Cruz counties are in gold, Trump counties are in blue.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7c/Texas_Republican_Presidential_Primary_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2016.svg/300px-Texas_Republican_Presidential_Primary_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2016.svg.png)
I wonder what was up with that county that's dang near Cajun?
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Can you at least tell the whole story @Right_in_Virginia ?
There were over a dozen candidates on the Texas ballot, and Cruz won nearly every county. Cruz counties are in gold, Trump counties are in blue.
Calm the hell down. I pulled the percent from Texas records. I don't know what story you're telling here ... but the vote totals and percentages from the 2016 primary are in the record books.
I hope the Senator keeps his seat. I hope he does whatever it takes to make that happen. I hope you're out there helping him.
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I wonder what was up with that county that's dang near Cajun?
About 2/3's of Sabine County is National Forest up against the Toledo Bend Reservoir.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sabine+County,+TX/@31.3727581,-94.1021372,10z/data= (https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sabine+County,+TX/@31.3727581,-94.1021372,10z/data=)!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x8639fa24bcf6e003:0xf313f112dae162fa!8m2!3d31.2974233!4d-93.8248241
Ted Cruz 1,147 votes
Donald Trump 1,217 votes.
https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist273_race62.htm (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist273_race62.htm)
In the Democrat primary it was:
Hillary Clinton 192 votes
Bernie Sanders 82 votes.
https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist233_race62.htm (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist233_race62.htm)
Sabine County is okay.
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Then relax. Cruz can phone it in.
Only fools do that.
Cruz is no fool and neither are his followers.
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Then relax. Cruz can phone it in.
That's what Hillary thought, too.